South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 2nd February onwards

[Ben Lewis]

London BBC forecast. Winds peaking at 50-60mph late morning before easing down in afternoon.. 

BBC national weather putting 70mph south of London. South coasts and SW England look to take the strongest winds. 

Nothing this winter hasn't endured already! 

[AdamStorm7891]

6 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I just can't get excited or interested over a possible 60mph wind gust! 

Like most wind days in my area - a serious over hype and just "another windy day" Southern coasts look like strongest winds anyway. 

I'm much more interested with possible snow coming back on board with ECM/GFS

Heading to the beautiful city of Montreal next Monday for 2 weeks... Brutal cold and snow set to be settling in for my arrival - Get in... 

60mph gusts well inland are actually quite uncommon, so this isn't being at all overhyped, St' Jude was overhyped because they predicted widespread gusts of 80-90mph which would have made it almost as bad as 1987 but in reality only a few coastal districts got 80mph whereas the rest of us got a very short spell of 50-60mph winds so tomorrow's winds are going to be at least as strong as St' Jude if not stronger and lasting a few hours longer!

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

London BBC forecast. Winds peaking at 50-60mph late morning before easing down in afternoon.. 

BBC national weather putting 70mph south of London. South coasts and SW England look to take the strongest winds. 

Nothing this winter hasn't endured already!

Disagree entirely we've not seen such equivalent wind speeds since October 2013. 

[Captain Shortwave]

So tomorrow

60-70mph gusts likely, perhaps up to 80mph over coastal parts of Hampshire, though I suspect south west areas will get the worst gusts.

Beyond this, it will turn chillier with temperatures back in the 5-7C range, perhaps turning colder by the end of the week, but this is very uncertain.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[AdamStorm7891]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Disagree entirely we've not seen such equivalent wind speeds since October 2013. 

Actually I'm not sure about that, weren't the winds during Storm Barney back in November about that strong?  I remember there where some power outages in Essex.

[Ben Lewis]

11 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Disagree entirely we've not seen such equivalent wind speeds since October 2013. 

BBC London going with 50-60mph at its peak late tomorrow morning! 

Thats what I was referring to as 'normal winter so far' 

of course living on the south coast would be a lot more noticeable and stronger. So something severe there maybe! 

 

Fyi... Storm barney produced 74mph here!

tomorrow set for no where near in my location. Southern coasts stand a good chance to record over 70mph 

Edited February 7, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[Ben Lewis]

18 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

60mph gusts well inland are actually quite uncommon, so this isn't being at all overhyped, St' Jude was overhyped because they predicted widespread gusts of 80-90mph which would have made it almost as bad as 1987 but in reality only a few coastal districts got 80mph whereas the rest of us got a very short spell of 50-60mph winds so tomorrow's winds are going to be at least as strong as St' Jude if not stronger and lasting a few hours longer!

But my local weather mentioned 50-60mph gust possible at its peak! 

no mention of 80mph. That's if you live in south coast isn't it? 

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

Actually I'm not sure about that, weren't the winds during Storm Barney back in November about that strong?  I remember there where some power outages in Essex.

I'm not sure it is erased from my memory therefore it was a no show here elsewhere I can't comment. 

[tinybill]

21 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Wow...  Draw a line from Bristol to London anyone south of it 60-70mph perhaps 80 mph 

should  be a  interesting drive into work at 6 am  in the  morning  !!!!!

[AdamStorm7891]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

BBC London going with 50-60mph at its peak late tomorrow morning! 

Thats what I was referring to as 'normal winter so far' 

of course living on the south coast would be a lot more noticeable and stronger. So something severe there maybe! 

I think their dividing line between where the strongest zone of winds will be is too close to London and the surrounding suburban areas for comfort, the line between the 50-60mph gusts and the 60-80mph gusts literally runs right through the heart of Greater London and the Thames Estuary so on that basis if you live north of the Thames you'll get 50mph winds if you live south of the Thames you could get 70mph winds, I don't think there's an exact science with their predictions it's mostly guesswork on the assumption that usually areas closer to the sea are more exposed to strong winds but it doesn't always work out that way, in fact some models are predicting the strongest gusts to swathe right through Hertfordshire, Essex and East Anglia and it would make sense for the winds to be slightly further north then the warnings would have you believe because it's these areas that are slightly closer to the centre of the LP's southern flank where the tightest pressure gradient and isobars are!

[AdamStorm7891]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I'm not sure it is erased from my memory therefore it was a no show here elsewhere I can't comment. 

There was a tree down just around the corner from me, all be it a small one but I remember it being quite wild for a short spell during the evening!

[frozencanals]

 

This is going to make my flight into Gatwick at about 11.00am tomorrow an interesting one, that is if the plane gets out of Gatwick at 8.00am in the first place to come and pick me up...

stay safe everyone...

FC

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Ethier way.. It's bloody windy now and it's going too be even more bloody windy tomorrow 

[leedsnowfan]

Well.....I lost a number of large roof tiles in the St Jude storm......so me and my fence arent hoping for a repeat

[tinybill]

TORRO convective discussion been issued.

http://www.torro.org.uk/forecast.php

 

make  things more interesting  warning  now  of tornadoes 

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

So tomorrow

60-70mph gusts likely, perhaps up to 80mph over coastal parts of Hampshire, though I suspect south west areas will get the worst gusts.

Beyond this, it will turn chillier with temperatures back in the 5-7C range, perhaps turning colder by the end of the week, but this is very uncertain.

The forecasts seem to suggest the worst of the winds will be for the far S the GFS on the other hands has the swathe of the worst winds cutting through an area which does not even have a yellow wind warning currently that being much of East Anglia that is extremely odd? 

[Ben Lewis]

5 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

I think their dividing line between where the strongest zone of winds will be is too close to London and the surrounding suburban areas for comfort, the line between the 50-60mph gusts and the 60-80mph gusts literally runs right through the heart of Greater London and the Thames Estuary so on that basis if you live north of the Thames you'll get 50mph winds if you live south of the Thames you could get 70mph winds, I don't think there's an exact science with their predictions it's mostly guesswork on the assumption that usually areas closer to the sea are more exposed to strong winds but it doesn't always work out that way, in fact some models are predicting the strongest gusts to swathe right through Hertfordshire, Essex and East Anglia and it would make sense for the winds to be slightly further north then the warnings would have you believe because it's these areas that are slightly closer to the centre of the LP's southern flank where the tightest pressure gradient and isobars are!

Great, I'm in Herts and find the country road drive on the way home from work in the dark dodging twigs and branches in the road very irritating . Pointless weather... 

If my work colleagues comment how windy it is, that's when I know it's really windy out there.. Lol

during storm barney, 60+ mph winds outside and not one of them battered an eyelid. 

[Rain123]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Ethier way.. It's bloody windy now and it's going too be even more bloody windy tomorrow 

Exactly! My washing line has blown over.

[Spikecollie]

4 minutes ago, frozencanals said:

 

This is going to make my flight into Gatwick at about 11.00am tomorrow an interesting one, that is if the plane gets out of Gatwick at 8.00am in the first place to come and pick me up...

stay safe everyone...

FC

You'll be fine. If you're late you're late, let the folks who have the expertise make the decisions. I've had lots of flights in and out of storms - to be honest, some of the bouncier moments have not been in storms at all. Sit back and cloud spot!!!

[AdamStorm7891]

GFS chart for midday tomorrow seems confident on the strongest winds right through the heart of southern England running from Bristol Channel to London and out into the North-Sea via the The Wash, actually a very similar path to the '87 and St' Jude storms.

[Ben Lewis]

23 minutes ago, frozencanals said:

 

This is going to make my flight into Gatwick at about 11.00am tomorrow an interesting one, that is if the plane gets out of Gatwick at 8.00am in the first place to come and pick me up...

stay safe everyone...

FC

Don't worry, as ex crew the wind has to be pretty intense to ground a number of flights. More chance of being delayed through thick mist then strong winds. 

Aslong as the wind gusts stay below 80mph (likely) you should be fine. 

 

[tinybill]

 i see on the imogen  thread  winds  reported  at 101  mph  ar  fastnet  point  already

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That last gust was a bit hoolie 

[tinybill]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

That last gust was a bit hoolie 

i know  i live  not far from a river high up one f the highest houses   the the wind  blowing outside already  i think the met office  could   under playing this  storm  looking at the  maps  . the areas  affected  are the same  of the great storm  we all know what happened  that day

[tinybill]

pouring  down outside