South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 2nd February onwards

[Jimmyh]

The storm is back on the gfs and if track moves slightly north we are in it

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7 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

The storm is back on the gfs and if track moves slightly north we are in it

We are in it anyway, 60+ mph winds on the gfs with 90 in the channel just phenomenal I've never known such consistent modelling 

[snowfish1]

37 minutes ago, Surrey said:

We are in it anyway, 60+ mph winds on the gfs with 90 in the channel just phenomenal I've never known such consistent modelling 

Good. At least there's something "different" to look forward to.... This Atlantic steam train should be renamed steamroller I'm surprised geographically we haven't moved east we've had that much wind and rain lol

Edited February 4, 2016 by snowfish1

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2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Good. At least there's something "different" to look forward to.... This Atlantic steam train should be renamed steamroller I'm surprised geographically we haven't moved east we've had that much wind and rain lol

Indeed I agree but this storm could be the worst in a few years down here 

Edited February 4, 2016 by Surrey

[snowfish1]

13 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Indeed I agree but this storm could be the worst in a few years down here 

Yeas Surrey. This snapshot chart shows it nicely I think Saturday from midday til mid evening and Monday for the west winds

and squally rain 

Edited February 4, 2016 by snowfish1

[snowfish1]

[Blessed Weather]

Good agreement now from GFS and ECM that a notable storm will cross the South of the UK next Monday 8th. Before that we have some strong winds overnight Sat into Sun, but it's Monday that needs watching. A few charts....

First, the GFS 850 hPa shows the position of the storm Monday at 09.00:

The ARPEGE model has an interesting output that shows the max wind gust that will be experienced between T0 and T114 (i.e. between now and 114 hours time), so at present it only goes up to 07.00 on Monday. Here's 2 charts showing mid-night Sat (into Sun) and the purple shows gusts between 110 and 120 km/h (68 mph) have already clipped Kent. The second chart is for 07.00 Monday and look what's out in the SW approaches, heading our way - the potential for even stronger winds. The SW and S. Wales could really get battered. Usual caution... it's the models and details could yet change.

Mid-night Sat   07.00 Monday

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Really could be a notable weekend 

 

[Dami]

9 hours ago, March said:

Bedford gets on average more days of thunder than 80-90% of the country. 

Well I live just outside of Bedford and I can tell you that last year we had one thunderstorm. In fact I have lived here for 8 years and I wouldn't say 80-90%. No way.

A-lot of storms actually miss me, so if you got more than 1 last year you were lucky.

live on the coast first.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Dami

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, snowfish1 said:

Good. At least there's something "different" to look forward to.... This Atlantic steam train should be renamed steamroller I'm surprised geographically we haven't moved east we've had that much wind and rain lol

Those on the south coast may well get some of the stronger winds, I would rather it went away again.

[cobbett]

Cool - a trip to Portland beckons

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Really could be a notable weekend 

 

Agree, as it stands the south coast and especially northern France would take the brunt of the strongest winds with many of us escaping the worst, but move the system north slightly and we're all in for it. Could move a bit south too of course, or downgrade, but one to watch for sure. 

[greenhithe]

i think it will downgrade here in nw kent, the iossc site says max 56mph gusts on sunday night 

will need to look at pressure charts to see if i am right

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Guys please, don't compare model run by model run you don't do this only within 24 hour period there after throw it out.. We have to wait till late tomorrow/ Saturday for Saturday nights winds to nail it and then Sunday to nail Monday also ignore all general wind speeds on these websites they are based on the GFS I think and all computer modeled wait for the high res models to roll out late tomorrow...

[Daniel*]

This saturday is looking windy even inland.

Gusts widely between 50-60mph during the light of day - The S coast seeing the worst of the winds.....

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I recall it was esterdays 6z and 12z that dropped Mondays storm and then came back on the 18z and this mornings 00z

[Jo S]

Got to take someone out in a wheelchair on saturday, have i got to hang on to him for dear life , so he doesnt take off , i am taking him to the pub , , dont want to see him rolling down the road, mind you my waving goodbye arm is good 

[alexisj9]

46 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

This saturday is looking windy even inland.

Gusts widely between 50-60mph during the light of day - The S coast seeing the worst of the winds.....

It's the south winds as the storm up north is sucking air in that really hit this area hard, I remember from 2013, so even Saturday could be a bad day.

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12 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It's the south winds as the storm up north is sucking air in that really hit this area hard, I remember from 2013, so even Saturday could be a bad day.

I would assume this is because the winds are travelling over quite open land and sea 

[Snoopie42]

18 minutes ago, Jo S said:

Got to take someone out in a wheelchair on saturday, have i got to hang on to him for dear life , so he doesnt take off , i am taking him to the pub , , dont want to see him rolling down the road, mind you my waving goodbye arm is good 

 Now that has just made me laugh! You are hilarious! I suppose it depends what time you go, just don't come back on Monday or you may have some issues!!

[Jo S]

2 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

 Now that has just made me laugh! You are hilarious! I suppose it depends what time you go, just don't come back on Monday or you may have some issues!!

its saturday lunch time ,i am taking him,, to the harvester, so not sure how bad the wind is going to be, or should i rephrase the wind part, um gusts, yes that sounds more professional,, , i would prefer savaloy,gherking,pickled onion and chips, but hey the harverster will have to do 

[Snoopie42]

7 minutes ago, Jo S said:

its saturday lunch time ,i am taking him,, to the harvester, so not sure how bad the wind is going to be, or should i rephrase the wind part, um gusts, yes that sounds more professional,, , i would prefer savaloy,gherking,pickled onion and chips, but hey the harverster will have to do 

Wind gust chart attached for reference......you may be OK, however, it will be a tad blowy, therefore, you may need your strong arm to keep hold rather than waving goodbye!

[Jo S]

40 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

Wind gust chart attached for reference......you may be OK, however, it will be a tad blowy, therefore, you may need your strong arm to keep hold rather than waving goodbye!

No my strong arm will be holding my drink,  oh and the reference um yer ok,  like i understand that, looks good though 

[Southender]

Other than wind & rain and lots of it certainly over the next week or so, "winter" looks just about dead to me. Not that it even got going of course. There isn't even a whiff of excitement in the long-range. Just more of the same. PV in over-drive, wind/rain/cool/rinse/repeat. Total and utter crap. Anyone else throwing the towel in?

[stainesbloke]

27 minutes ago, Southender said:

Other than wind & rain and lots of it certainly over the next week or so, "winter" looks just about dead to me. Not that it even got going of course. There isn't even a whiff of excitement in the long-range. Just more of the same. PV in over-drive, wind/rain/cool/rinse/repeat. Total and utter crap. Anyone else throwing the towel in?

Not throwing the towel in but yes, it hasn't been a 'fun' winter weather-wise. Same old shyte for months on end gets very dreary. I'm not all that bothered about snow but those few cold, sunny days we had a couple of weeks ago were lovely. All this wind and rain stops me from getting outside, I accept that it's going to happen a fair bit in winter but it's been relentless this year! Still think we may get something colder/snowier this month though, and it is February 4th, not March.