Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[chris55]

35 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It wouldn't be difficult for March to turn out much colder than any of the winter months, indeed even April could easily beat that pathetic excuse for a winter month, the wretched December just gone.  Personally I start to lose interest in snow unless it can survive at least in the shade during the day. So if March is going to be cold I want to see something outlandish to make up for the last ten weeks of crud!

Something white falling from the sky has been totally absent for a lot of us ALL winter, so if it settles in March im not to fussed if it melts in the shade ha! Just shows what a snowless winter it has been for most.

Though i do agree it would be great to see something outlandish" in March....though i like that any-time of the year whether it be cold or hot.

In the meantime though, Monday is going to be bitter in that wind!Insert other media

 

[Snowman.]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Yes,it's a shame the PV has taken so long to be brought to it's knees.

 

This winter has been the worst in a very long time but the PV was impressive many other winters the PV would've been on its knees but the sheer strength kept it going till the very end.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I know this isn't discussing current models, but thinking back to 2013 in January wasn't there a fair bit of expectation that February would be a very cold month (due to background signals and such) and when in the end it only turned out to be marginally cold there was alot of disappointment in this thread and many thought the cold spell of January would then be it, but in the end the cold did eventually come but in March instead, I do wonder whether something similar might happen this year with initially expectations being pretty high for this month. Though of course I'd be very surprised if we got something on the same scale as March 2013 as the coldest March in half a century is surely unlikely to be matched less than half a decade later but maybe a watered down version of that is more likely, like say something akin to March 2001 or 1987 whereby we get  snow but not necessarily long lasting cover.

 

 

[nick sussex]

Quite a complicated set up for mid-week. The ECM disrupts energy twice through the UK, this is helped by that stronger ridge to the ne at T120 and T144hrs.

The ECM's later output does show potential, although I'm sure everyones bored of hearing that phrase!

 

 

Edited February 13, 2016 by nick sussex

[Snowman.]

The ECM 240 tease

 

 

[nick sussex]

I'm sure most people are getting model fatigue by now with the search for cold and snow taking on Da Vinci Code proportions.

I think we need to summon the reserves to see whether there might be a late Feb early March wintry spell which might at least deliver more UK wide.

Without the MJO I would be less optimistic but that is a help and the PV is likely to weaken towards late winter/early spring.

[Man With Beard]

Well having looked at far too many charts I'm still totally perplexed about Wednesday/Thursday. There seems no reasonable way of forecasting what that front will do, except that it will cross the UK. 

But, for many, there may be a dusting or two over the next 36 hours - take Sunday night/Monday morning, this will surely be all snow away from the coast itself.

[Frosty.]

Model fatigue has got to me but I'm really encouraged by the news that some of the GloSea5 members are suggesting increased possibility of more blocked, colder outcomes through March...March 2013 is still fresh in my memory so there is still hope for all us long suffering coldies and the week ahead could bring some snow to some parts of the UK..chin up guys.

[london and south east kent]

10 hours ago, fergieweather said:

....EC Monthly does, eventually. The current expectation is for (the lagged) phase 6 influence to perhaps become influential for UK around end of Feb-early March, with *some* GloSea5 members suggestive of an increased possibility of more blocked, colder outcomes into early next month. The risk of a colder than average start to spring has been flagged for a while now.

 

winter has a sting in its tail

[Timmytour]

27 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Model fatigue has got to me but I'm really encouraged by the news that some of the GloSea5 members are suggesting increased possibility of more blocked, colder outcomes through March...March 2013 is still fresh in my memory so there is still hope for all us long suffering coldies and the week ahead could bring some snow to some parts of the UK..chin up guys.

March 2013 was a coldest in 50 years event....not sure we could expect anything like ii so soon. Just like so hope it's another 50 years before we get anything like a December 2015

[chris55]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a complicated set up for mid-week. The ECM disrupts energy twice through the UK, this is helped by that stronger ridge to the ne at T120 and T144hrs.

The ECM's later output does show potential, although I'm sure everyones bored of hearing that phrase!

 

 

Yes Nick, overall a pattern that could well spring some wintry surprises. Nothing exceptional by any means, just cool/cold February fair.

 

[Snowman.]

26 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

March 2013 was a coldest in 50 years event....not sure we could expect anything like ii so soon. Just like so hope it's another 50 years before we get anything like a December 2015

Not asking longevity. Give me a 7 day cold spell with one major snow event and I will be happy. 

[Weather Observer]

38 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Not asking longevity. Give me a 7 day cold spell with one major snow event and I will be happy. 

This one was a long time ago but I remember it well. I lived on the south coast. Six inches of powder snow fell as that low moved south east. Brilliant sunshine didn't touch the snow for the first two days with -10 uppers. It stayed in the shade for a week. 

[Singularity]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

No doubt the perfect winter synoptics will turn up in March and it will be a case of if only a month earlier. Unless theres some astounding synoptics like March 2013 then the thought of a pile of cold rain is underwhelming.

If theres to be anything wintry we need it right at the start of the month or preferably the MJO speeds up and delivers late February.

In terms of the MJO composites its a bit difficult when the change of phase falls at the end of one month and the start of another. Because there are some important differences as to exactly what composite is the more likelier.

Funnily enough March 2013 type events can be considered entirely plausible if we see a late-Feb split-vortex SSW combined with the MJO getting into phase 8 soon enough.

Some experimentation with previous late Feb to mid-March MJO moves 67/8 has led me to conclude that the high latitude blocking tends to situate close to the N/NW if the MJO gets to phase 8 by the end of the first week or so of March. By the time you get to mid-month, the response morphs into more of a mid-latitude block across the UK with any high latitude blocking more toward Canada.

I suppose if the MJO worked its magic for the first 10 days and we had a favourable vortex displacement (rare but possible) plus seasonal weakening, a particularly cold month could be achieved that way as well, but probably not as extreme as with a split-SSW.

Really, as you say, it has to be extreme to be worth getting excited about if you're in southern UK. March 2013 was a very unlucky month in this neck of the woods... I wouldn't mind another shot at landing the epic blizzard that ended up going to the Channel Islands!

 

I dread to think what the impacts would be on the wildlife after such a lack of properly cold weather during the winter itself, but I fear the odds on such a thing are shortening by the day what with ECMF now showing the propagation to the phase 7/8 border by day 14. Impacts would be first week of March so just about soon enough! 

[phil nw.]

The cold ne flow now setting in will keep us cold until Thursday before the Atlantic makes inroads and by the weekend it does look like the Azores high starts to be a factor as warmer air moves in.

GFS shows quite a change between Thursday and Saturday next week.

 

The 3 day temp.ens.means before and after the Atlantic trough mid-week.

Here we are with at face value a decent setup for snow and cold with the low pressure in the channel and a surface high to our north but it is proving so frustrating  again for cold fans as the lack of blocking further north means the Arctic air we are getting is less than impressive.Any forecasted snow fall over the next few days looks very marginal with areas with elevation more favoured before the Atlantic get's back in. 

I think we may be looking towards month end for a chance of a change to -AO/-NAO which could give us a late chance of Winter cold.MJO forecasts continue to move it through the phases with arrival in phase 7 looking ever more promising and the ECM mid range forecast Phase 8 there after. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Phase 8

 

in the meantime it looks like we will see our usual and all too familiar westerly setup from the end of the week. 

Edited February 13, 2016 by phil nw.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Funnily enough March 2013 type events can be considered entirely plausible if we see a late-Feb split-vortex SSW combined with the MJO getting into phase 8 soon enough.

Some experimentation with previous late Feb to mid-March MJO moves 67/8 has led me to conclude that the high latitude blocking tends to situate close to the N/NW if the MJO gets to phase 8 by the end of the first week or so of March. By the time you get to mid-month, the response morphs into more of a mid-latitude block across the UK with any high latitude blocking more toward Canada.

 

That's the problem though, any SSW isn't likely to affect the trop until second week of March, the MJO phase 8 feb composites are the best phase but the March ones don't look as good. The highlighted bit looks like that's what the Met Office think will happen, perhaps close but no cigar AGAIN?

[wishingforsnow]

Again with dread of when a cold spell is going to end but the Atlantic return is still in FI. Who knows what could happen next week? Maybe with a weakening PV the heights would have a better chance of holding their own against the Atlantic. Also it looks like possibly any Atlantic return could be a shorter period than what happened from the 21st January until the middle of this week with about 2 and a half - 3 more weeks of milder than average, wetter conditions. If the MJO gets further into a favourable phase and the Met's prediction of colder more blocked conditions from the end of February into March come to fruition we may not hav to face another barrage of named storms for weeks again.

[Eskimo]

GFS 18z stalls the front but no snow on it, Sod's law!!

EDIT: front stalls, front takes a while to fizzle out and colder air mixes in giving snow for many in the east. 

Edited February 13, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

GFS 18z stalls the front but no snow on it, Sod's law!!

 Theres a big mild sector involved hence a crap run

[feb1991blizzard]

It stalls it too late but only a bit too late actually, its not terrible.

[winterof79]

No snow there then??  Cannot get rid of the post below.

2 hours ago, ricey076 said:

 

Edited February 13, 2016 by winterof79

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

No snow there then??

Just to give a piece of advice to everyone on here, I really wouldn't use those charts for PPN type, use Netweather's, weatheronline or the High resolution meteociel charts.

[Eskimo]

7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

The reply feature really needs to be fixed for mobile devices, there's no way to delete an original reply.

Anyway, it's actually good to see the differences in the runs, the minor swings in the short term as there's still yet more room for improvement. Just hopefully it ends up our way. 

 

[weirpig]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just to give a piece of advice to everyone on here, I really wouldn't use those charts for PPN type, use Netweather's, weatheronline or the High resolution meteociel charts.

yep does show how marginal it is (how often have we heard that this winter) elevation i suppose could be key

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, weirpig said:

yep does show how marginal it is (how often have we heard that this winter) elevation i suppose could be key

Yes its marginal for me, so much that the UKMO shows nothing but heavy rain for 24 hours.