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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

http://www.ann-geophys.net/33/207/2015/angeo-33-207-2015.pdf

This might be interesting. In the last 3 winters we've had ENSO neutral and El Nino, we've had W-QBO and E-QBO we've had low snow advance and high snow advance yet all winters have been mild with a positive NAO throughout. Maybe the solar cycle has a larger than expected part to play in winter. This paper shows the North Atlantic is the main area affected by solar activity and during solar cycle peak the Azores High/Icelandic lows are strengthened.

This may well be deleted by Moderators, but I just wanted to express my thanks for posting this link.  It offers a putative answer to a question that had been bugging me for some time and which you mention - given the varying state of ENSO and QBO this past few years, how come the western European winters have been broadly similar; indeed, how come the northern hemisphere geopotential patterns have seen a tendency towards a section of the tropospheric vortex sitting over Greenland/Iceland, with an east-based Azores High/Euro High?

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Leaving the joys of GFS stuff aside, the consensus from other ensemble suites currently suggests risk of snow on Weds across high ground of central/E England, with 30% chance of this extending down to low levels over Midlands/E England. There's also currently a 25% chance of lowland snow into Thurs *if* front slows and decays in-situ. All very awkward and no clear-cut pointer to eventual outcome.

Taken at face value, am disappointed at the poor prospects of lowland snow for those of us in Southern and SouthWest England. However, considering this is still at approximately t+6000 minutes range (see my post from last night) I'm happy to note you are considering the uncertainty in what must be quite a difficult and challenging forecast for the professionals. :drinks: All to play for. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
30 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Just to be clear, my post was light hearted in tone and in no way saying it would verify as shown but since this is the model output discussion, it's perfectly reasonable to post what the charts are showing, whatever the timeframe.:)

It is reasonable Karl.

But this Winter is dying out with little in way of snow for most. The model 'teases' of last few weeks show how flawed they are with their data modelling. Stick with Meto.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

There's a clear indication that Wales midlands north and east is at risk of wintry weather threw this week.

beyond is more and likely according to the anomaly charts of broad swathe of heights to our south and sw with very little northern blocking with the jet in later runs directed at the uk.

so there for there's no change to later model out puts take this mornings and last nights runs comparison to a week ago complete climb down from what was to what we have now.

the recent El Niño and jet stream power plus powerful vortex and deep temperature differences are still present and are likely to continue drive the westerly and nw flow beyond the coming week with perhaps a small decline in unsettled weather in the south more so.

the gfs full stop has been a consistent spoiler all winter.

my money is on the ukmo and ecm that's why my towel is back where it should be.

anyone in the south we need a miracle for a snow flake unless your on the downs moors or chilterns.

even last winter we see a snow shower lol lasted ten minutes then that was it but it's super seeded this winter even further north had better last winter.

so it goes to show how much influence that blasted El Niño and vortex west QBO have on the jet stream.

all the models last night and this morning show nothing to great for us down here and yesterday the gfs 6z threw out a great wintry run today it's playing follow the yellow brick road again.

gfs for me is binned

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
1 hour ago, Karl. said:

The latest expert view is it won't be a snowy midweek, they say it will be turning a little milder through Wed / Thurs with some rain...sorry to say this but just keeping it real.:)

Ok you stil say that Karl,even with the gfz 6z in mind??

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok you stil say that Karl,even with the gfz 6z in mind??

No I'm keeping an open mind, the gfs might be right so we can't say there is no chance of a covering of snow through the midweek period.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
18 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

so are you suggesting we all ignore the model output as it is likely to be wrong and just read the met office forecasts? then consequently, we should stop commenting on the model output for the same reason?

firstly, where do you think the Met Office get the information to produce a forecast? -models

secondly, if we all took your advice, the model output discussion thread would cease to exist. the models may be wrong but we can still discuss them. if you dont want to be part of that discussion, there are other threads to read.

Thanks for the advice. V much appreciated. It really is. I now know where i've been going wrong. I cant thank you enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Right I see then,would you favour snow or rain currently.?

I would say at least a short spell of transient snow if the Atlantic punches through which appears to be what the experts are currently expecting but if the front stalls, then more chance of a more prolonged snowfall but at least a wintry mix for a time as we will be in cold air before fronts arrive. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I would ignore CFS useless model! stick to big 3, GFS, ECM and UKMO, all 3 go for a shocker washout wet Wednesday in the South, and then the Atlantic being in control

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Hm I don't think all 3 do,the latest gfs looks quite snowy midweek!

only for elevation oop norf, pop your location in profile? so we know where you mean etc

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
21 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Thanks for the advice. V much appreciated. It really is. I now know where i've been going wrong. I cant thank you enough.

glad i could help...

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

GFS 12z has removed the snow risk for lowland areas and snow is reserved for the highest ground of Northern England and Scotland, in tune with the MetOffice. Upgrades/Downgrades still to come though. 
 

Edited by PerfectStorm
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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
On 2/7/2016 at 10:24 PM, stratty said:

:)

11 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

GFS 12z has removed the snow risk for lowland areas and snow is reserved for the highest ground of Northern England and Scotland, in tune with the MetOffice. Upgrades/Downgrades still to come though. 
 

no it hasnt...it shows a band of snow moving slowly across the country....no stall though.

Edited by chicken soup
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Very close to a decent snow event on this run. Only about 1c off lowland snow. Wouldn't take much of an upgrade. On this run most would see some falling snow with settling reserved for higher ground. Plenty of twists and turns to come over the next couple of days I reckon !

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

GFS 12z Thursday snow risk..

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS 12hrs run not as good in the medium term, the shortwave that ran se not there so more energy heading east.

The UKMO is more progressive with low heights to the nw and is different upstream from the GFS at T96hrs.

I don't think theres going to be a resolution this evening to what happens towards the middle of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 12hrs run not as good in the medium term, the shortwave that ran se not there so more energy heading east.

The UKMO is more progressive with low heights to the nw and is different upstream from the GFS at T96hrs.

I don't think theres going to be a resolution this evening to what happens towards the middle of next week.

Looks better regarding midweek snow event nick?also a lot colder at 120 hours compared to gfs!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z still shows snow for some areas during the midweek period, even for the southeast and east Anglia and temperatures as you would expect, below average..so the chance of accumulations is still alive!:)

12_90_preciptype.png

12_99_preciptype.png

12_108_preciptype.png

12_123_preciptype.png

12_99_uk2mtmp.png

12_114_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Looks better regarding midweek snow event nick?also a lot colder at 120 hours compared to gfs!!!

Yes just a rough look at the 850's and the UKMO has some unusually cold PM air digging se at that timeframe. The issue is that it looks like it mixes out the cold ahead of the precip so its going to have be back edge snow for that to deliver.

Really it just gets more complicated! I'm not sure either the GFS or the UKMO are the correct solution. If you look upstream towards the ne USA they disagree.

I think we're going to have to wait for tomorrow morning!

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