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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

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16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

so frustrating why are we missing out :(

 

Wrong sort of slider lol.Need colder uppers in place and a more elongated low imo.

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No entrenched cold over the UK to speak of, we wanted the colder air to move South 1st, like GFS was showing last Sunday, then the slider/sliders.

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47 minutes ago, terrier said:

But certainly no epic runs as some seem to think. 

I don't think anyone has used the word Epic to describe the upcoming colder spell...I'm just pleased to see a colder spell showing on the models within the reliable timeframe, it will at least feel like winter!..something that most of the last 10 weeks has failed miserably to achieve.:D

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29 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

so frustrating why are we missing out :(

 

yes all very frustrating ,at least we are looking at Potential over coming week or so ,and given that things at the week range seem to present themselves  all of a sudden i,m hoping we can get lucky .

i personally have Not given up on this week end just yet as its 48 hrs away or so ,at least next week cold air will hopefully be in place to our east and south east .

So best of luck to all those that get the magical white stuff ,and i,m sure there will be some ,Fax charts should be interesting ,catch you all later cheers :friends:

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I think it's best not to get too hung up on will it snow or won't it in my area or not at this range or indeed even at +24hrs!

Localised snowfall is notoriously difficult to predict even for the professionals as can be seen in text forecasts or on the media.

There are also lots of more complex criteria regarding snowfall particularly in marginal situations like we are heading towards

What is encouraging is that the overall synoptic pattern and projected atmospheric profile over the UK is certainly conducive to 'wintry surprises' almost anywhere!

Part of the enjoyment of these type of situations is the unexpected - of course it can always downgrade and become the proverbial damp squib - but not always!

Certainly infinitely preferable to seeing charts showing endless SWly's blast wind and rain across us ad naseum! :D

 

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2 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I don't think anyone has used the word Epic to describe the upcoming colder spell...I'm just pleased to see a colder spell showing on the models within the reliable timeframe, it will at least feel like winter!..something that most of the last 10 weeks has failed miserably to achieve.:D

Couldn't agree more, I can't recall 'epic' ever being on the agenda? In these you never know what might crop up and of course there is always the possibility of frontal snow later.

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even with the high res models  the low for saturday  is still very difficult to pin down  although i believe snow will be limited  just shows the uncertanty

16021306_1106 (1).gif

16021306_1106.gif

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This is the problem we're facing folks - it's not cold anywhere in Europe!

temp_eur2.png

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9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is the problem we're facing folks - it's not cold anywhere in Europe!

temp_eur2.png

quite right mulzy, i think the best that can be hoped for this weekend* is for some areas to get a surprise because of evaporative cooling, unless you have elevation on your side, but even then, further south I think it is the wrong side of marginal. DP's aren't going to be in negative values until the precip has gone, no real cold to our east to tap into. I am soooo frustrated that we wait years at a time to get a channel low, but unfortunately it just won't be cold enough.

I'm pinning my hopes on next week, so am hopeful that the 12z give us a better chance of Scandi heights being sustained. But I'm not getting my hopes up to much.

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I'm pretty happy with the next few days, cold air was brought in a tad faster on the 06 gfs than the 00, something to look at over the next 24 hours to see if it can come even quicker, but that comes at the expense of the lows sliding further South and less precip for the UK.

Sunday through to Tuesday gives confidence that cold uppers are ok to good, i wouldn't even think about precip for those days, may not even be known until a few hours before with troughs and showers.

So from then we now have a battle of will we get the Scandi in place, models overnight seemed to go the right way and hold the atlantic troughing back. The 06 fails really with a good scandi, maybe the 06 just hasn't got the signal yet, maybe it has, that is yet to be resolved.

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Well at least we do have some interest in the charts right now and next week could develop into something very interesting indeed, remember that 06z has traditionally been the most useless of runs. Worth bearing in mind that its not just us that have been mild and snowless this Winter, that chart shows clearly what it has been like around Europe, there are also severe droughts in many places due to the persistence all Winter of that dreaded Euro slug beasty.

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1 hour ago, terrier said:

If the gfs 06z downgrades the low any further I think we can forget about any snowfall all together. Seems like the mo aren't really seeing anything snowise looking at latest update. Yes colder next week with some frosts. But certainly no epic runs as some seem to think. 

It would benefit many if you could post some charts to back up your theories sometimes.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Bright or sunny intervals and some wintry showers on Saturday and feeling colder in a freshening easterly wind. A cold northerly wind on Sunday and Monday with further wintry showers.

Updated at: 0230 on Thu 11 Feb 2016

 

There will be more updates obviously as the detect any diturbances in the flow

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

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49 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is the problem we're facing folks - it's not cold anywhere in Europe!

temp_eur2.png

But the problem is not set to stay that way.

Today

gfs-1-6.png?6

Weekend

gfs-1-78.png?6

And early next week

gfs-1-108.png?6

All conjecture for next week I freely admit

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53 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is the problem we're facing folks - it's not cold anywhere in Europe!

temp_eur2.png

Except northern Scandinavia where we will source colder air from Sunday. Though daytime maxima of 5-6C progged by GFS for lowland England & Wales early next week not very cold and just below average for mid Feb. 

Temps shown struggling more Weds though, as we lose the wind Tuesday and cold strengthens from overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and little mixing under high pressure. Question mark by Thurs on how much mixing out of cold air there will be while the models grapple with trough disruption from the NW, 06z GFS holds on to a cold surface all week in the E and SE.

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

so frustrating why are we missing out :(

 

Thicknesses not sufficient I am afraid.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=th85&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Interesting to see how far the precipitation gets.I fear not far.

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2 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Sorry what do you mean a Cornwall and devon event only?..what are u expecting there?

The precip band in association with Fri night/Sat mornings low is getting edged ever further SW'wards, as happened with tonights low. As far as Devon and Cornwall are concerned this still has the potential to be an 'evert' (or perhaps more accuracy 'another event'), both through heavy rain and later strong winds, but elsewhere any impact is looking increasing marginal. Clearly on the leading edge of the rain there is also the chance of some snow somewhere across the SW quadrant of the UK and another chance as the cold air undercuts from the NE again later, but only on high ground for the most part as things stand imo.

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The ECM ensembles possibly showing the milder air pushing through slowly in the middle of next week and then showing the trough dropping back to the East of us beyond that?In line with John Holmes's thoughts on the anomaly charts earlier. 

pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

GFS

gfs-0-360.png?6

ECM1-240.GIF?11-ECM

gem-0-240.png?00GEM

 

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Its typical that the GFS 06hrs run has less trough disruption. Its always the way, one model picks up a trend, the others follow and then it drops the baton just before the line!

Regardless of what the models say re the weekend snow potential I think its  a case of wait and see, I've seen many snow events turn into a slushy mess and rain events surprise the other way.

 

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At face value with undercutting lows over the next 3 days at this time of year it looks promising for some snow.

fax24s.gif?1fax60s.gif?1

What there is looks like rain below around 300mtrs. Welsh mountains look favourite for the coming 3 days and up over parts of Scotland and NE England from the more marked frontal boundary moving south bringing the coldest air from Scandinavia.We can see that trough line across Scotland there on the T60fax.

Quite a cold setup building though as that deeper cold gets right down south after the weekend as low pressure sinks into the Continent.Some sharp frosts look likely

A look at the London ens.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

show the colder regime expected to persist until the end of next week,first under the ridging high and then what looks like another injection of polar maritime air from the north west around mid-week as another Atlantic trough digs south east.I think any further snow though would be confined to higher ground as freezing levels look higher by then.

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I respectfully request members to look at the METO medium range update for the mid-week trough disruption and beyond.

Could save a little over analysis.Could change of course.

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20 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

show the colder regime expected to persist until the end of next week,first under the ridging high and then what looks like another injection of polar maritime air from the north west around mid-week as another Atlantic trough digs south east.I think any further snow though would be confined to higher ground as freezing levels look higher by then.

What is significant about those ensembles is that five days ago the NCEP blue line was a big outlier at the top of the spread by the 19th and 20th of February - quite a change in outlook - will we see the trend continue.

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Interesting Tweet from BBC Weather highlighting the risk of disruptive snow next Wed/Thurs...early call from the BBC

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