Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Frosty.]

Even the southeast gets some snow on the Gfs 6z op run...Essex snowman, if you are watching..good luck mate

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

But not on the 06z unfortunately which has less of an easterly influence than the 00z :-(

But may have on the 12z but not on the 18z etc...I think we've covered this before.Convective snow showers for many Eastern districts off the North sea firstly.

[Lukesluckybunch]

So the -6 uppers covering the country Thursday/Friday late next week,is it very cold air?

[weirpig]

My slight surprise is the modelling of this low on saturday i thought the track would have been nailed by now.  But it still looks like its still to be decided. As for the rest of the run, no idea!

[Essex snowman]

Frosty that would be my dream chart fella god we deserve some snow and I'm talking all cold lovers I hope we all see snow by midweek next week cheers frosty have a Stella on me 

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

So the -6 uppers covering the country Thursday/Friday late next week,is it very cold air?

I think -8 uppers are forecast as some juncture and these are more conducive to anything falling from the sky being snow.Although -6 is fine

Edited February 11, 2016 by winterof79

[Chris101]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

So the -6 uppers covering the country Thursday/Friday late next week,is it very cold air?

I was going to let someone more knowledgeable answer, i personally go with adding 10 so 4/5 imo is the right area. 

[Snowynorth]

It is pointless at the moment looking into detail or even looking on each model run the snow risk/precipitation type charts. 

The models do not have a firm grip yet so you would just be wasting your time chasing the snow, get the cold in and then look for features via high resolution models. The problem with the 6z is the jetstream. The Atlantic gets through because of the strength and orientation of the jet next Wednesday leading the system not to stall as its catching the jet and coming right through, 00z's had a weaker jet and better positioning. Always a concern when we have no favourable blocking in place. 

I wouldn't look past Tuesday until at least Saturday and Sunday. 

Shorter term there is of course a risk of snow showers for north sea facing coasts, more especially Scotland, NE England and Yorkshire/Lincs coast Sunday into Monday before high pressure cuts the flow off.. 

Edited February 11, 2016 by Snowynorth

[Lukesluckybunch]

Wel thanks for the info there so countrywide of would be 5/6c or lower.?

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Essex snowman said:

Frosty that would be my dream chart fella god we deserve some snow and I'm talking all cold lovers I hope we all see snow by midweek next week cheers frosty have a Stella on me 

Cheers

[Polar Maritime]

27 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Could somone please give me a rough idea of what -6uppers would represent in terms of normal temperatures c? I mean would it be like 4/5c slightly milder ,or colder?

Yes a cold slack N/W flow indeed for Thursday/Friday, With some hard overnight frosts and daytime temps 3/4/5c in the South, Nothing mild in the charts today with the coldest period of Winter so far on the way over the next 10 days at least..

Edited February 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes a cold slack N/W flow indeed for Thursday/Friday, With some hard overnight frosts and daytime temps 3/4/5c in the South, Nothing mild in the charts today with the coldest period of Winter so far on the way over the next 10 days at least.

Well that does male a nice change!,boring mild stuff!,the latest run shows things slightly colder for Saturday and even more so sunday.next week looking cold too Monday and Tuesday ,slightly milder Wednesday before the threat of somthing very cold late next week!

Edited February 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime
updated quote :)

[Man With Beard]

GFS is just like a bad girlfriend at the moment. It's spent the last 36 hours seducing the other models to buy into its Scandi High idea - it finally seduced them this morning, and guess what - now the GFS is trying to ditch them.

And it can't make up its mind, either. Slider? No slider? It seemed to have made up its mind yesterday to not slide. But - now it's back - at just T48!

 

[snowray]

Yes cold charts but what ever can go wrong for snow has gone wrong, so apart from the far South/South West and then Eastern coasts you can forget it on the 06z. Next week looks far more interesting but will be very hit and miss, and of course how can we even begin to take charts at 7 days out seriously if we are still chopping and changing for this Sunday which is day 3 by my reckoning? 

Pretty well had enough of it this Winter, I will have to find myself a new Winter hobby like yoga or learning how to Tango next year, need to keep fit and calm down more, not obsess at blinking useless weather charts.

[festivalking]

15 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes cold charts but what ever can go wrong for snow has gone wrong, so apart from the far South/South West and then Eastern coasts you can forget it on the 06z. Next week looks far more interesting but will be very hit and miss, and of course how can we even begin to take charts at 7 days out seriously if we are still chopping and changing for this Sunday which is day 3 by my reckoning? 

Pretty well had enough of it this Winter, I will have to find myself a new Winter hobby like yoga or learning how to Tango next year, need to keep fit and calm down more, not obsess at blinking useless weather charts.

Looking at the charts i don't think any snow will fall here in the far south west this weekend. Cold rain and the obligatory wintery mix for the moors seems to be in order.

[coldcomfort]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

A much improved 06z run in short - medium term

The flow allignment between 60 & 84 is more Easterly - with less mixing & the slider low at 48 on a more southerly route-

a very good run for wales as potentially a bit of snow sat -

Perhaps even some wintry / snow flurries in the ESE sun-

all setting up to be a very cold run-

T84

s

Really?  I appreciate this has been a god awful winter and all that, but to suggest the 06 run was, is or was setting up to be 'very cold' is a bit misleading to be fair, at least in my opinion. Mean temps will be on the cold side for sure, but they don't look like being a million miles from the seasonal average, so whilst anything colder is welcomed by most I think we still need to keep things in some sort of context.

06 GFS continues the trend of edging everything SW, so before too long Saturday could well be a Cornwall and Devon event only.

Edited February 11, 2016 by coldcomfort

[terrier]

If the gfs 06z downgrades the low any further I think we can forget about any snowfall all together. Seems like the mo aren't really seeing anything snowise looking at latest update. Yes colder next week with some frosts. But certainly no epic runs as some seem to think. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Sorry what do you mean a Cornwall and devon event only?..what are u expecting there?

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, terrier said:

If the gfs 06z downgrades the low any further I think we can forget about any snowfall all together. Seems like the mo aren't really seeing anything snowise looking at latest update. Yes colder next week with some frosts. But certainly no epic runs as some seem to think. 

Yes kind of agree,though there is a chance of it turning very cold late next week!,at the moment I would say maybe 30/40% chance..though Monday and Tuesday look good for snow!

[Polar Maritime]

7 minutes ago, terrier said:

But certainly no epic runs as some seem to think. 

Who/where are they? All posts this morning seem realistic given the outputs. A cold period coming up over the next 10 days at least.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[snowray]

Here is our channel low showing up now on Euro4 a bit further North, unfortunately all rain. May still drag in some colder air as it clears though, so Northern border could turn more wintry but there is nothing terribly cold here, -4/-5c uppers is your lot.

 

Just to add one thing, we dream about sliders like this all Winter, and when you get one in MID FEBRUARY right, its just the wrong side of marginal.

Edited February 11, 2016 by snowray

[SLEETY]

6 minutes ago, snowray said:

Here is our channel low showing up now on Euro4 a bit further North, unfortunately all rain. May still drag in some colder air as it clears though, so Northern border could turn more wintry but there is nothing terribly cold here, -4/-5c uppers is your lot.

 

Just to add one thing, we dream about sliders like this all Winter, and when you get one in MID FEBRUARY right, its just the wrong side of marginal.

so frustrating why are we missing out

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

11 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Who/where are they? All posts this morning seem realistic given the outputs. A cold period coming up over the next 10 days at least.

Cold yes,correct !but anything special in terms of real cold and snow....we'll I'm not sure?

[snowray]

Arpege is a bit better showing some light snow around as the main thrust of PPN heads further South, similar to GFS. Although I would favour the Euro4 and take my chance that some of the heavier stuff may turn Wintry later on.

We seem to be clutching onto the dregs of the dregs of this cold spell though, for now anyway.

[Lukesluckybunch]

The main spoiler here is too much energy coming out the east seaboard,if it can slow down a bit,and make slower progress east then we have a chance of the high midweek building more strongly!the problem at the moment is it gets squashed by the vicious LP and gets pushed away far too quickly to the southeast, leaving our pattern all a bit flat.it will be interesting to see if we can get a less angry looking low coming across.☺