Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Re the 10mb pole temperature chart. Some years ago, using the 30mb chart, it worked about 60% of the time but from the date the rising temp crosses the average line the 10-15 days down the line cold weather in the UK.

Might work with the 10mb.

Has anyone got a link to either the 10 or 30mb chart please?

Do you meen these John!

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

Edited February 10, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Re the 10mb pole temperature chart. Some years ago, using the 30mb chart, it worked about 60% of the time but from the date the rising temp crosses the average line the 10-15 days down the line cold weather in the UK.

Might work with the 10mb.

Has anyone got a link to either the 10 or 30mb chart please?

Both here, just use the drop down menu.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

 

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Zonal again by 240 though, this is from an increasing number of ops / suites now.

[ukpaul]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Zonal again by 240 though, this is from an increasing number of ops / suites now.

Zonal? Well, not from rampant lows.

Edited February 10, 2016 by ukpaul

[joggs]

Yes I can't get excited by what the pub run shows.If it had shown a quicker breakdown of the cold people would be saying,"it's only the pub run".

So let's see what the morning brings lol.

[Essex snowman]

Feb1991 why an earth are u looking and making posts about something that is 240 hours away u no as well as everyone it won't verify but nice try 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

Yes I can't get excited by what the pub run shows.If it had shown a quicker breakdown of the cold people would be saying,"it's only the pub run".

So let's see what the morning brings lol.

To be fair it's not just the pub run though, it has been a developing trend throughout the day.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

To be fair it's not just the pub run though, it has been a developing trend throughout the day.

Yes Karl, the 18z is building on the promise shown on the gfs 12z..hopefully the 00z will maintain / strengthen this trend too!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Feb1991 why an earth are u looking and making posts about something that is 240 hours away u no as well as everyone it won't verify but nice try 

JUst stating that its a trend, look at the 850s graphs suddenly spiking up after the halfway mark, despite people calling me an out and out cold ramper on here its not true, I do also put the other side where necessary, this sort of ties in with met office 6-30 dayer as well.

[joggs]

Yes but let's what Tom same runs ie 24 hrs later bring.

[snowray]

It has indeed been a developing trend that is now showing up on the majority of models. The jma has got to be the best of the lot though this evening, a very cold and also snowy run.

[nick sussex]

I reckon this GFS run is a mild outlier! lol

I want the -15 850 value that would have been possible without the PV doing an Incredible Hulk routine. Anyway lets see what the morning brings.

It would be fantastic to see this Scandi high verify and more trough disruption to allow that even colder air to head sw.

Its a longshot especially with the ECM not interested but that's not had the best week in terms of reliability.

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Zonal again by 240 though, this is from an increasing number of ops / suites now.

The cold snap/spell hasn't even begun yet lol

[Hodgheg]

Well hello mr model, getting more interesting day by day it seems. Its usually the opposite. 

[SMU]

GFS ensembles out to T96

the control is near identical to the operational

the Mean - showing much better heights to the north -

expectation is there will be more support for the op this time around ....

S

[bryan629]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I reckon this GFS run is a mild outlier! lol

I want the -15 850 value that would have been possible without the PV doing an Incredible Hulk routine. Anyway lets see what the morning brings.

It would be fantastic to see this Scandi high verify and more trough disruption to allow that even colder air to head sw.

Its a longshot especially with the ECM not interested but that's not had the best week in terms of reliability.

 

HI Nick ... this popped up on twitter earlier on in the evening... im not sure if Recretos is referring to the Strat or the Trop though ... 

 

Cold weather to last a week or so as well.. caveat been lots of uncertainty !! 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35546462

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by bryan629

[Allseasons-Si]

Here! here!

i was a bit premature posting that 10hpa strat chart earlier with the Scandi high developing at 100 plus hrs on the 18z,we need to give it time to downwell,i know it's way out in fl but maybe this might be the trend

 

[kent]

Possible scandy high with -10 over warm seas. Think ill stop drooling and sleep on it then wake up.

[Trom]

16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

To be fair it's not just the pub run though, it has been a developing trend throughout the day.

Yes but a huge upgrade - 10 uppers were no where near the UK on previous runs.  in fact -5 was only glancing certain areas and Scotland on previous runs.  Nice if it holds come tomorrow mornings output.

[Frosty.]

Well, the Gfs 18z was worth staying awake for as it shows a cold spell beginning this weekend and lasting throughout next week rather than a swift return to milder Atlantic westerlies! 

[Nick F]

18z GFS suggests little if any northern edge snow on the area of rain passing through England and Wales over the weekend, though Scotland could see quite a few sleet and snow showers or longer spells of snow inland on the strengthening easterly wind.

Sleet and snow showers indicated across the east on Monday, fading into Tuesday as high pressure builds

Still that Atlantic frontal system trying to make inroads middle of next week, but not getting any further than Scotland, west Wales and far SW of England as high pressure hold firm.

Oh and what's that cheeky little streamer toward the SE? That won't come off, got love the 'pub' run

We await agreement between EC and GFS for next week though. Both agree on a cold upper vortex originating from over NE Canada to drift ESE across Iceland and NE Atlantic.  GFS over its last few runs has disrupted this upper trough/vortex as it slides SE against a blocking ridge of high pressure over Scandinavia This means the associated frontal system and mild sector with it gets squeezed out as it tries to moves E across the UK next Wednesday. ECMWF, on the other hand, as kept the upper trough intact as it moves in from the NW mid-week onwards, so mild air spreads in across all parts mid-week, though short-lived, before a colder westerly veering NWly flow returns as the upper trough digs deeper southeastward toward northern Europe.

[ukpaul]

Where west meets East. If only, just for once.....

    

[Allseasons-Si]

a thing of beauty with height's linking to the pole and the pv to the siberian side

control at 312 hrs

pert 15 at 312 hrs

pert 9

and 17

all for fun of cause,lets see if these charts  gather momentom in the next few days.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[wishingforsnow]

49 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Well, the Gfs 18z was worth staying awake for as it shows a cold spell beginning this weekend and lasting throughout next week rather than a swift return to milder Atlantic westerlies! 

Superb runs tonight 

[SMU]

Excellent overnight runs - consolidating on the GFS theme of the last 24 hours - the ECM had followed into line, the proof again being the drop of 850s from 144 @-4/-5c over england back down to -9c from the continent at 168-

snow for many on that sliding low if it ever gets that far east-

I would say across the piste the next 6-8 days gradually get colder daily....

even at 192 now -8c uppers over england-

s

PS the cherry on the icing on the cake is the heatwave over greece..

Edited February 11, 2016 by Steve Murr