Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You want the Azores high to displace as far nw as possible and amplify as this will help to sharpen up the troughing to the nw. Its a bit of a battle though because the PV associated with that troughing is desperately trying to flatten things.

Although the ECM wasn't terrible in that it does keep the Azores high displaced theres no trough disruption on that like the GFS.

I think this is the main point about the emerging pattern for 2nd half of Feb. The Azores High looks like living slightly to the west of norm, with only occasionally entering Europe temporarily. This does allow a tiny chance of a Scandi High under trough disruption (most attempts at this do fail to benefit the UK, I think, but has happened once or twice). But the main possibility will be the ridge edging north from time to time, bringing NWlys to the UK and maybe a temporary Nly in time. Uppers don't look great at the moment but give it a week and NWlys will appear in latter stages which appear more potent - IF the Azores High can stay displaced a little west.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

low modled different on this run not so intense

Not only less intense but also much further south like the ecm!!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Not only less intense but also much further south like the ecm!!

yep the pub run is showing a better scenario over the weekend  for some parts than it has for the last few runs

[Mucka]

Very surprised tonight's JMA has been largely ignored.

GFS 18z colder and trending the right way (if it is a trend to colder you want)

And better upstream amplification

Traditional pub run cometh?

[SMU]

18z out to 102 a big inprovement-

heights to the north stronger - also a better all round curvature of flow towards the UK out of southern Norway

Azores high better alligned - could this be a stella run !

S

PS Mucka the JMA 192 is quite rare in having atlantic cold air in situ over the UK to the west of the the low & cold continental air to the East of the low both at -6c @ 850S

Edited February 10, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Ice Day]

Out  to 114 and the uppers have been colder than the 12z, with deeper cold waiting in the wings.  Baby steps and all that!!!

 

[SMU]

Huge undercut coming with -8c air draped over the UK like kaligulas grapes...

s

[Ali1977]

What a great pub run, quite a potent lengthy cold spell showing.

Lets hope this is correct, this could become very good if so, showers of snow piling in by mid next week from the east.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Ali1977

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Atlantic further west on this run, need to squeeze out mild sector, snowfest then for some areas, very cold air ahead and behind front

[karlos1983]

It would be some coup for the GFS if it nails this into next week. Hoping to wake up to similar, keep the trend as our friend 

[TomDav]

-10C isotherm not too far away at 165

[Allseasons-Si]

and at 144 hrs,-12 uppers in the atlantic

and look at that Scandi block

12z 150hrs 18z 144hrs

and with this on the offeringBOOM!!!

Edit:look at that cold pool at 180 hrs across england and wales with -12 just off the south coast,just need some pep up in PPn,though too far out for that.

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[SMU]

Interesting stuff ....

The undercut significantly increases the UK cold pool

at t150 England has uppers of -4c

at t156 England has uppers of -8c

- a very good run - as posted earlier this eve the GFS seeing more & more heights over scandi

fair play...

the rate the cold air is decending it will be sub -10c for Eng by 168

S

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Atlantic further west on this run, need to squeeze out mild sector, snowfest then for some areas, very cold air ahead and behind front

Snowfest?? It looks dry to me

[Ali1977]

Are we squeezing the best scenario out of this or could it still get better...if this isn't a cold outlier I'd be very surprised.

[feb1991blizzard]

Happy xmas MR Murr - Kent clippers and allsorts galore.

 

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

The GFS PPN type does amaze me though, -10c uppers and its got sleet in a convective type from the East, when its a more moist type of convection from the North West and uppers of -4c it has snow, work that one out!!!!

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are we squeezing the best scenario out of this or could it still get better...if this isn't a cold outlier I'd be very surprised.

Mix GFS 12z and 18z you get a better scenario. High further north with lower heights SE but the deep cold pool from the 18z run.

[Aaki Khan]

Been A Long Time Since Seeing Such Eye Candy. Cometh From The Appropriate "The Pub Run" .. 

[Weather-history]

What I find I striking is how intense the Azores high is forecast to become, not often the Azores high gets up to 1050mb.

[snowray]

10 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Snowfest?? It looks dry to me

Yes, a very cold run but mainly dry, south Eastern coastal areas would get some snow showers though in that Easterly

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Happy xmas MR Murr - Kent clippers and allsorts galore.

 

 

No battleground but definitely a Kent clipper there.

[johnholmes]

Re the 10mb pole temperature chart. Some years ago, using the 30mb chart, it worked about 60% of the time but from the date the rising temp crosses the average line the 10-15 days down the line cold weather in the UK.

Might work with the 10mb.

Has anyone got a link to either the 10 or 30mb chart please?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes, a very cold run but mainly dry, south Eastern coastal areas would get some snow showers though in that Easterly

yes unlike the 12Z, the Atlantic fails to make it this far East, need inbetween the 12Z and 18Z really to create Feb 4th 2012 style event

[nick sussex]

Well not bad from the GFS, with more trough disruption the high to the ne would be able to advect more cold west. Too much energy goes ne rather than se.

This Scandi high development does seem to have popped up out of the blue. The ECM seems underwhelmed by that prospect so best to not get too excited by the GFS until we see more support from the Euros.

Overall enough to keep us interested with that possible very cold ne tease likely to give a good turnout in here for the morning outputs!

Oh I've just seen the 850's! I'm surprised the GFS manages to get that level of cold that far west, anyway after this winter so far the UK deserves to see the -15 850, none of this mild -10 850! lol

Edited February 10, 2016 by nick sussex