Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

A nice sliding track for that low Sunday morning, good for those further north but the 850s show clearly why the the far south misses out.

 

GEM at the same time and UKMO at T144 also different:

  UKMO D6  

I suspect GFS will change many times before we get any agreement, looks messy with where that Low goes, how and if it disrupts and how mixed out those uppers get. Though potential remains, too far out to take this GFS run seriously.

[snowray]

Worth bearing in mind that this low is a pretty good slider, it does not get very far North before its pushed back South East by the cold air in the North. So some lucky places will have just snow others further South will have snow then sleet or rain, then snow again as low low clears. Long way off of course.

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Worth bearing in mind that this low is a pretty good slider, it does not get very far North before its pushed back South East by the cold air in the North. So some lucky places will have just snow others further South will have snow then sleet or rain, then snow again as low low clears. Long way off of course.

Seems about fair .

[ukpaul]

This encapsulates Europe's plight this winter. Cold floods into the US/China axis and this continent, apart from Scandinavia and the Alps can't get below freezing. When there's no cold in Europe then what chance does we have?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

This encapsulates Europe's plight this winter. Cold floods into the US/China axis and this continent, apart from Scandinavia and the Alps can't get below freezing. When there's no cold in Europe then what chance does we have?

The Alps are going to get pasted with upto 2m of snow in some resorts this week...

[Singularity]

This 'Icelandic Wedge' reminds me of a similar feature in Jan 2013 that caused the models some serious trouble, with slight upgrades turning a simple frontal passage into a classic case of a stalling, pivoting front, with precipitation falling as snow from quite far SW and then struggling to make it to eastern parts.

That one should turn up in 4-5 days time is quite a catch, as it sets up a flow toward the UK from just about the only direction in which there is enough cold air to tap into for there to be interesting results; NE of the UK, from the northern reaches of Scandinavia for example.

 

GFS' day 4 idea of separating the Atlantic LP from one having just run through the UK is about as good as you could hope for. Alas, UKMO is not on the same page... but I must say, it seems extremely fast to move that low across the Atlantic from Newfoundland between +72 and +96.

So, the day 5 outcomes;

 

GFS in classic Channel Slider territory, but with the cold undercut arriving just as the precipitation exits from the S. The wrong kind of classic!

UKMO has most likely drawn that cold air across the northern half of the UK and there could be a snow event up there somewhere. Down south it's a bucket load of rain unfortunately.

Day 6;

 

GFS producing some excellent trough disruption but not quite far enough SW for  the most snow-starved of our nation to benefit. Tut tut.

UKMO has run another low into the base of the one already in place, resulting in a deep trough with the cold air probably wrapped right into the circulation. This means it would be mixed out to some extent, but with such a low 500 mb height level, the surface conditions could be more wintry than you might think.

Not sure if the trough would have time to sink S/SE at all out to day 7, nor how much cold air would be available to the NE. GFS has a reasonable amount to work with as the trough slips away to the SE. We then see the major trough arriving and dropping south as per most of the recent det. runs:

  

Again with that slightly displaced vortex at 30 hPa to factor in. Looks good for continuing a NW-SE jet in our vicinity at least, assuming connection with the trop. of course.

The middle part of Feb may not be spectacular, but it could provide some transient lying snow for some of those further south that have not fared well in recent years. In light of which the UKMO run is a shame as it means confidence of even getting to the point of GFS with the snow/rain boundary has to remain low. On the other hand, the sheer extent to which the 'wedge' of higher heights in Jan 2013 were upgraded in terms of resillience and disruptive effect on Atlantic troughs at relatively short range does lead one to even consider the possibility of eastern parts escaping from the frequent bouts of precipitation that look to plague the SW in particular during the next few days.

 

[Polar Maritime]

8 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

This encapsulates Europe's plight this winter. Cold floods into the US/China axis and this continent, apart from Scandinavia and the Alps can't get below freezing. When there's no cold in Europe then what chance does we have?

All's not lost though, With plenty of surface cold..

Edited February 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[london and south east kent]

The low will be much futher south buy the time it comes the north will be dry and cold but for the south of England there will be some snow this will be a southern England snow runner low

Edited February 7, 2016 by london and south east kent

[MR EXTREMES]

staggering run from gfs now the diving lows going se into Europe signs of a change to something even colder evolving early in the gfs run to so I hope the gfs is onto something although must confess I'm not convinced just yet but there does look to be some chilly enough upper air at times for possible wintriness even further south.

I threw the towel in days ago but I'm happy to be wrong.

[Ali1977]

I have a feeling these potential snow events may go our way for a change, and some upgrades could start showing up over the next few days...maybe to METO should have stuck to its guns on a cold 2nd half of Feb

i expect to see the ECM showing even more potential than the GFS.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Ali1977

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues once again with cool/cold 'Wintry' Northerly type flows into the run.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[igloo]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I have a feeling these potential snow events may go our way for a change, and some upgrades could start showing up over the next few days...maybe to METO should have stuck to its guns on a cold 2nd half of Feb

snow above 300m  for the next fortnight or so by the looks of it the met office will have a bit of work to do unless you view the GEM model of course 

[wishingforsnow]

7 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

The GFS continues once again with cool/cold 'Wintry' Northerly type flows into the run.

I don't see any 'mild' in those charts! 

Will be interesting to see what the Met Office thinks of this, although with possible cold spells such as the one in January they are reluctant to get on board until they have enough confidence to do so.

I also think the impact of Imogen will help to drag colder air down over the UK perhaps causing a change to colder weather again.

[blizzard81]

25 minutes ago, Singularity said:

This 'Icelandic Wedge' reminds me of a similar feature in Jan..

The ECM will be very interesting tonight. Will it go the GFS route or UKMO? The ECM 00z raised heights over Scandi in the medium term, will it carry on that trend tonight? Not long to wait for these answers.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To shorten quote.

[ukpaul]

10 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

All's not lost though, With plenty of surface cold..

I check out webcams and forecasts for much of Europe on yr.no (recommended!) and they don't appear to be impressed with any real cold infiltrating Europe. Prague, with an average high of 2.7 degrees in February is about to hit double figures tomorrow. Warsaw may only get below freezing once in the next week, despite its average high being less than two degrees centigrade. (and its average low nearly minus five).

If you want snow then you have to go pretty far into Scandinavia, beyond the capitals. It's pretty pitiful at this stage.

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I don't see any 'mild' in those charts! 

Will be interesting to see what the Met Office thinks of this, although with possible cold spells such as the one in January they are reluctant to get on board until they have enough confidence to do so.

I also think the impact of Imogen will help to drag colder air down over the UK perhaps causing a change to colder weather again.

Not alot going on the latest forecast, nothing wintry at all

[phil nw.]

It doesn't take much in the way of heights to our north to raise cold interest further when we have an Atlantic trough digging se into Europe.

looking closely it's there on the UKMO too.

This week was always looking colder in the ensembles,could we quietly be heading into something even more noteworthy than first thought.

Certainly the end of the week looks interesting with more southerly tracking waves on the jet.Plenty of cold air showing to our north and east creeping ever further south into England/Wales.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2016 by phil nw.

[wishingforsnow]

6 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Not alot going on the latest forecast, nothing wintry at all

They don't have confidence in models showing cold at present as more support is needed for a colder signal to develop. But this could change. The Met Office usually only support an idea or trend if there is a strong enough signal to do so. We have to watch what happens over the next few days/week. 

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[johnholmes]

one poster says 'I don't see any 'mild' in those charts

another

nothing wintry at all!

newcomers can be forgiven for wondering just what is coming out of the models, at this time of the day, it will be GFS folk are talking about.

For some sensible ideas read 

Singularity, Polar Maritime

phil nw.

not the only ones but just giving new folk an idea where to look.

I would be surprised if at the end of this week some folk in England at quite low levels have not seen at least falling snow, some may even have it lyinf for a time. No great deep prolonged cold but it, to me, is looking colder overall than for a while?

The models as always will come and go so to speak with timings and positions, details etc but as move towards, whichever T+00 you are interested in they WILL converge. Forecasting snow rather than rain is very very complex so don't expect the forecasts, model or TV folk, to be right all the time for your locality.

Fun watching things develop and it is looking like being a really interesting week for meteorology in many forms, so enjoy it folks.

Edited February 7, 2016 by johnholmes

[karlos1983]

Great start to the 12z from GFS and UKMO in terms of cold and wintry weather for the uk. All eyes to the ECM, but I'm feeling quite confident, this week, especially the later part of the week could Spring some surprises. 

[Banbury]

30 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

one poster says 'I don't see any 'mild' in those charts

another

nothing wintry at all!

newcomers can be forgiven for wondering just what is coming out of the models, at this time of the day, it will be GFS folk are talking about.

For some sensible ideas read 

Singularity, Polar Maritime

phil nw.

not the only ones but just giving new folk an idea where to look.

I would be surprised if at the end of this week some folk in England at quite low levels have not seen at least falling snow, some may even have it lyinf for a time. No great deep prolonged cold but it, to me, is looking colder overall than for a while?

The models as always will come and go so to speak with timings and positions, details etc but as move towards, whichever T+00 you are interested in they WILL converge. Forecasting snow rather than rain is very very complex so don't expect the forecasts, model or TV folk, to be right all the time for your locality.

Fun watching things develop and it is looking like being a really interesting week for meteorology in many forms, so enjoy it folks.

Wrong , I was pointing out the Met dont see it as wintry............. and they are THE professionals ..................can change but as we sit today the met havent even mentioned anything wintry, which is different to what GFS is showing.

Advice to newbies is ..............watch TV forecasts for clarity

Edited February 7, 2016 by Banbury

[chris55]

1 hour ago, ukpaul said:

A nice sliding track for that low Sunday morning, good for those further north but the 850s show clearly why the the far south misses out.

 

Have you just discovered the high res charts Paul, lol. Out at day 7 we are looking at the broader picture, the high res will give more details but at this range overall the bigger picture is more important. When looking at where 850s are cold enough for snow etc it is best to wait till T48/72 and look at the likes of the FAX charts or the high res Euro models such as the ARPEGE. 

 

However the 12z GFS is a really nice run in terms of the bigger picture and the potential for sliders with enough cold air entrenched over us to raise some eyebrows regarding frontal snowfall somewhere over the UK if the theme was to continue.

 

Edited February 7, 2016 by chris55

[Weathizard]

If only there was more cold air around, be typical if we get these kind of sypnotics only for a lack of cold uppers to scupper everything. Nick S will be preparing his strongly worded post.

Interesting ECM run coming up.

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts have been hidden due to personal sniping which has been noted and not taken kindly on this Forum. Please continue with friendly 'model discussion'. And remember there are other threads to discuss what the METO/BBC are forecasting. 

Many Thanks, PM.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Timmytour]

The day to day difference for as little as T96 out is remarkable really.......still a lot ot volatility in the models if the ECM is anything to go by

Tonight   v last night

  v