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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

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As some were suggesting, its back. PPN a bit further South, don't know what to make of it.

gfs-2-48.png

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2 minutes ago, snowray said:

As some were suggesting, its back. PPN a bit further South, don't know what to make of it.

gfs-2-48.png

Another misleading chart posted, all this does is give people hopes that are misleading, then they turn round and say 'where's that snow gone we were promised?'. It's bad enough looking for snow without being told something is there when it isn't. What it is showing is some snow primarily over the highest ground, limited in the heaviest bursts.

45-779UK.GIF?07-12  48-779UK.GIF?07-12

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Just now, Banbury said:

Lighten up ..............he is perfectly entitled to post that chart, currently it isn't wrong..................is it

It is wrong, it's a low resolution version of the one that I posted for the same run. If it was different models then okay but this is the more detailed version of that same run. Misleading is misleading, if it is on purpose or not. 

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Not at all surprised to see snow down

south again on this run,as to Wether 

it verifies though is a total different 

Ball game

C.S

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Of course its a long shot, but the fact remains that GFS persists in showing this. North Downs could be in for a few inches but mainly wet stuff elsewhere of course, and it could be wrong.

Just a bit of interest to pass the time on a dreary Sunday afternoon.

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Since when have the models promised us lowland snow? For, what must be about the ten-thousandth time, computerized numerical prediction-models promise nothing...They do, however, give us a guide as to what might happen...:D

Edited by Ed Stone

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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

are you the model police now?

Showing people the accurate picture is wrong? If people are misunderstanding the charts then pointing it out is stopping them having false hopes. I know it's human nature to want to believe the 'best' outcome but it isn't helpful if people want to read the charts properly in the long run. 

One useful way is to go through a number of the shorter term models (WRF, Hirlam,. Arpege, NMM) and see what each is saying. They will also give a nice colour coded precipitation type chart, red for snow and blue for rain. All available on Meteociel.

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Afternoon All-

Well ive just finished cutting the grass for only the second time in Febuary ..... The first being last year :(

Im sure grass only grows in temps around 10c so I can certainly see why its been growing since the cold spell ended in Jan!!

With 3 weeks to Winter is officially over but perhaps 5 in total with 'opportunity' then time is running thin for lowland UK to get any snow cover- The fat lady is certainly warming up ( as if she needed to in the wings )

But todays models- in particular the ECM want to arrive late centre stage with a final fling towards cold-

The development ( or rather 'visibility' ) of higher heights developing over Western Norway towards Iceland in the 144-168 arena prompts thoughts that we may just luck into some snow before we can officially class winter over....

The theme of the week sees cold NW polar Maritime Air getting into the UK & lows sliding into it, with some potential for snow ( all be it very limited ) however the Window of opportunity opens out ( ref ECM 168 ) as the high to the North forces cold air SW into Europe - at the same time the Atlantic is sliding SE with its energy

At this stage the near continent looks in the frame for some snow- however as we all know that cold air could filter west if the visibility of this higher heights to the North becomes a little more influential -

As It stands we are probably the wrong side of marginal - however small corrections MAY work in our favour...

Also a window for some deeper cold from the North / NE in the day 9-11 arena....


S

6c I think Steve .

Hoping for a colder theme to show

Edited by Banbury

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Just now, ukpaul said:

Showing people the accurate picture is wrong? If people are misunderstanding the charts then pointing it out is stopping them having false hopes. I know it's human nature to want to believe the 'best' outcome but it isn't helpful if people want to read the charts properly in the long run. 

One useful way is to go through a number of the shorter term models (WRF, Hirlam,. Arpege, NMM) and see what each is saying. They will also give a nice colour coded precipitation type chart, red for snow and blue for rain. All available on Meteociel.

no but a gentle pointer in the right direction is better than jumping on someones post, accusing them of being "misleading" when they are simply posting a valid chart and not claiming we will be buried in snow!

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A nice little upgrade from the GFS at 132

sees a little wedge over Iceland & some lower uppers moving back in (-6c)

image.thumb.jpg.521d7310ac0993827600561d

 

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Next weekend holds some interest with the low sliding into cold air... 

Not high Res before the fun police start!!

image.png

image.png

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A selection of short range model charts for 10 am Tuesday.

arpegeuk-42-51-0.png?07-12  nmmuk-42-51-0.png?07-12  arw-42-51-0.png?07-11hirlamuk-42-45-0.png?07-17

I'd like the last two to be right but given they are showing dew points above zero and 850s of -3/-4 in the south east corner that doesn't seem likely.

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Not to be taken seriously  but some snow about  as the atlantic attempts a undercut

gfs-2-156.png

Edited by weirpig

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14 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Showing people the accurate picture is wrong? If people are misunderstanding the charts then pointing it out is stopping them having false hopes. I know it's human nature to want to believe the 'best' outcome but it isn't helpful if people want to read the charts properly in the long run. 

One useful way is to go through a number of the shorter term models (WRF, Hirlam,. Arpege, NMM) and see what each is saying. They will also give a nice colour coded precipitation type chart, red for snow and blue for rain. All available on Meteociel.

I think it isn't the content of what you post but the tone of your comments ..... no need for it IMHO !!!

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7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Not to be taken seriously  but some snow about  as the atlantic attempts a undercut

gfs-2-156.png

This sort of undercut would be excellent, all snow by the look of it. Cold air moving back South.

Good omen that Steve M is back.

gfs-2-162.png

gfs-1-174.png

Edited by snowray

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6 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

no but a gentle pointer in the right direction is better than jumping on someones post, accusing them of being "misleading" when they are simply posting a valid chart and not claiming we will be buried in snow!

I'd posted the same this morning, just that people were continuing to make the same mistake. It's better to not raise hopes when there isn't that much.

And lo and behold the same thing gets posted again the one after yours....... This time with greater similarity but the 0.25 overdoes extent of precipitation at that range as people will have seen. A closer look at that timeframe shows this -

156-779UK.GIF?07-12

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Defo looks like the best 10 day period of winter is coming, no big freeze but better.

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6 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

I'd posted the same this morning, just that people were continuing to make the same mistake. It's better to not raise hopes when there isn't that much.

And lo and behold the same thing gets posted again the one after yours....... This time with greater similarity but the 0.25 overdoes extent of precipitation at that range as people will have seen. A closer look at that timeframe shows this -

156-779UK.GIF?07-12

Theres not much point in going into too much detail at this range though Paul, I mean it just gives us and idea that things are going in the right direction for a change. Be all change again tomorrow I expect.

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A nice sliding track for that low Sunday morning, good for those further north but the 850s show clearly why the the far south misses out.

156-7UK.GIF?07-12

 

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Just now, snowray said:

Theres not much point in going into too much detail at this range though Paul, I mean it just gives us and idea that things are going in the right direction for a change. Be all change again tomorrow I expect.

GFS often corrects as slower and more to  the north (not always but as a result of overdoing lows earlier on their track), This time I hope it's further south but it's a long shot.

If it was then the dewpoints are pretty good north of the low. Daytime temps of 3/4 wouldn't be conducive to it sticking around though, sadly.

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Just need that high near Newfoundland to strengthen and head North to get a colder PM flow going.

image.png

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3 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

A nice sliding track for that low Sunday morning, good for those further north but the 850s show clearly why the the far south misses out.

156-7UK.GIF?07-12

 

Depends how far  in any ppn gets of course

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