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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

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Well is ecm providing one more tease to round of the winter?

I'd say the 168 will be cold enough for snowy suprises with a very slack setup -

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3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Out to 168 hrs on wetter,and does seem to be similar to its 00z output

 

Recm1681.thumb.gif.120133589dfda66781054

That's the 00z run. But here is the 12Z and its much better

Recm1681.gif

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3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Out to 168 hrs on wetter,and does seem to be similar to its 00z output

 

Recm1681.thumb.gif.120133589dfda66781054

Yes better with the colder air starting to come south

Recm1682.thumb.gif.5611153c7aa5e95ebe841

which was in line with recent ens with the colder trend around 11/12th Feb,such as it is.

We will have to wait a few more runs but today it seems GFS has gone much flatter with the Atlantic jet and prevents much in the way of pm air getting in next week.

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The big differences between the ECM and GFS are in relation to the PV and how this vorticity interacts with shortwaves in the Atlantic.

The GFS flattens the upstream troughing and pushes the PV further east, the ECM has some trough disruption near the UK and its Siberian high is further west which locks in the Euro troughing.

As to which solution is correct hard to say as we've been led up the garden path too many times already by the ECM this winter.

Because of these upstream differences NCEP are likely to side with a certain solution in their State forecasts and shorter term discussion when that updates but if the GFS is wrong this would knock out many of its GEFS also because they also have a quick phasing with the Atlantic low and upstream troughing.

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5 minutes ago, joggs said:

I can't cope with these day 10 teases.I've had enough this winter.Thanks fir all your contributions and see you all late spring,ready for the hot Spanish plume summer:)

Sorry off topic mods.

 

Its OK,this is "only" day 8,and a real tease!

 

The good old Iceland high.:good:

 

Recm1921.thumb.gif.1e6194a029efb62df4f8b

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ECM day 10 shows US style snow storm for northern england?? If so, this winter will be forgiven!

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Nice ECM run with sliding lows and the last frame showing possible blizzard-like conditions across higher parts.

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ECM out on Meteociel now and finishes on a cold and stormy note for the UK.and an interesting Russian block.

 

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.cc2735668eddc3b6f

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Well its painful! Because we're now left with two solutions between the ECM and GFS which will either bring joy or tears to cold and snow lovers!

The day ten ECM even with that deepish UK low is likely to raise pressure towards Greenland. The GFS is the polar opposite with the PV much further east and more chance of being hit by a meteor than a quick route to cold from there!

 

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What I do like about the ECM is that it brings in more excitement towards future GFS runs. Will the GFS start sniffing the coffee? As Nick says, there's a frustrating split, but at least there is a split. I like a good split. 

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Please ECM dont be teasing us all us snow starved UK coldies.

A very wintry run up north :)

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ECM keeps the hope! Id be a little cautious of the Mets "westerlies till the end" summary of late.

Its only Feb 4th, there is still plenty of time for changes, and once  the models pick up a more favourable pattern the ensembles could easily come on board.

Of course it's easy to forecast the norm, and to be honest thats probably the form horse. But until it verifies im open minded.

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I'd be very wary of the ECM's solution at 9/10 days, it could be the first to pick up on a new trend, but with little support from the other models, I for one will not be dusting off the sledge quite yet.

It'll be interesting to see where the operational sits compared to the ensembles, I'm expecting it to be an outlier later in the period!

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Well thats a very interesting run from the ECM 12z we have been led up the garden path more than a few times in the past few winters by this model.. but that has always been due to over amplification.... this is not the case this time so it could be that it is on to something but as ever until the rest come on board we need to keep our feet on the ground and be cautious about its output.... i for one hope it is on to something i guess time will tell..

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News from NCEP re the upstream pattern. The short term discussion mentions a complex pattern setting up with the guidance all over the place.

The ECM 12hrs and its earlier ensemble mean however are generally preferred as they have been more consistent. The UKMO has been mentioned as much faster than this mornings run.

This part of the discussion is crucial:

FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW TRACKING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL REACH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE
THE SOUTHERN MOST SYSTEM SHOULD DOMINATE AS IT GAINS ADDITIONAL
AMPLITUDE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS IS THE POINT WHERE THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGE...PRIMARILY WITH TIMING. ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE ARE THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/06Z GFS-PARALLEL WITH
THE 12Z GFS TRENDING QUICKER DURING THIS CYCLE. THIS BRINGS ITS
SOLUTION OUT AHEAD OF ANY OTHER PIECE OF GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS IN RECENT DAYS HAVE SHOWN THE ECMWF SUITE TO BE
QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN FAVORING SOMETHING SLOWER AND A
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THIS CONSISTENCY
WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET MOVED TOWARD THE FASTER
SIDE...PARTICULARLY THE LATTER. GIVEN THE ASSESSMENT ABOVE...THE
PREFERENCE WILL REMAIN A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
 

If you look at the GFS between T72 and T96hrs you'll see its view keeps the northern stream low as the stronger feature, the southern steam low is flatter and runs quickly east at T120hrs, its this which then phases with the deep vorticity near Greenland and deepens rapidly.

The UKMO is a halfway house solution between the ECM and GFS.

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19 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

What I do like about the ECM is that it brings in more excitement towards future GFS runs. Will the GFS start sniffing the coffee? As Nick says, there's a frustrating split, but at least there is a split. I like a good split. 

I'm not sure we can smell the coffee any more ....due to the big pile of dung the elephant left in the room.

Cliches aside, it all looks to be a mess as far as output is concerned and when the MetO are chopping and changing the mid term forecasts how can we assess which, if any, model has it right.

 

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4 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Well thats a very interesting run from the ECM 12z we have been led up the garden path more than a few times in the past few winters by this model.. but that has always been due to over amplification.... this is not the case this time so it could be that it is on to something but as ever until the rest come on board we need to keep our feet on the ground and be cautious about its output.... i for one hope it is on to something i guess time will tell..

Well, out at days 5-6-7 and beyond id say the garden path analogy is a little harsh. At this range we just have to sit back and see what eventually unfolds with some crossed fingers ha. Though if a new pattern is to be picked out at range the ECM op is most likely to be the model to get it right.

But as you say time will tell.

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Some posts have been hidden, Please only discuss the 'Model Output' in here.

Thanks.

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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

News from NCEP re the upstream pattern. The short term discussion mentions a complex pattern setting up with the guidance all over the place.

The ECM 12hrs and its earlier ensemble mean however are generally preferred as they have been more consistent. The UKMO has been mentioned as much faster than this mornings run.

This part of the discussion is crucial:

FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW TRACKING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL REACH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS AGREE
THE SOUTHERN MOST SYSTEM SHOULD DOMINATE AS IT GAINS ADDITIONAL
AMPLITUDE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS IS THE POINT WHERE THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGE...PRIMARILY WITH TIMING. ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE ARE THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/06Z GFS-PARALLEL WITH
THE 12Z GFS TRENDING QUICKER DURING THIS CYCLE. THIS BRINGS ITS
SOLUTION OUT AHEAD OF ANY OTHER PIECE OF GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI PLOTS IN RECENT DAYS HAVE SHOWN THE ECMWF SUITE TO BE
QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN FAVORING SOMETHING SLOWER AND A
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THIS CONSISTENCY
WHILE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET MOVED TOWARD THE FASTER
SIDE...PARTICULARLY THE LATTER. GIVEN THE ASSESSMENT ABOVE...THE
PREFERENCE WILL REMAIN A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
 

If you look at the GFS between T72 and T96hrs you'll see its view keeps the northern stream low as the stronger feature, the southern steam low is flatter and runs quickly east at T120hrs, its this which then phases with the deep vorticity near Greenland and deepens rapidly.

The UKMO is a halfway house solution between the ECM and GFS.

i assume Nick that this is a good thing that they are siding with the ECM?? Average confidence is better than nothing and something to keep us interested i guess..

 

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Im sure the GEFS has had a remarkable change of tune in the last 24 hours! Last time i looked it was below or at average right out till the end. It does tie in with Ians thoughts yesterday, but as i said earlier time will tell.

MT8_London_ens.png

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ecm is a better run for cold  but as the hunt goes on for cold  this little feature in the reliable needs to be watched   dont know how blustery the wind will be  but i would have thought it woould still pack a punch

ECM1-96.GIF

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4 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

i assume Nick that this is a good thing that they are siding with the ECM?? Average confidence is better than nothing and something to keep us interested i guess..

 

Yes its good they prefer the ECM solution but sometimes consistency can mean consistently wrong! lol

The UKMO would be okay if it had a weaker low pressure further south near the UK at T144hrs. The GFS is beyond redemption and if that verified I'd be close to throwing the towel in.

 

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Well certainly a very interesting ECM tonight and also showing some consistency from this mornings run, but we have seen this sort of thing from the ECM already this winter with two consecutive runs consistently going for a cold and snowy set up only for them to disappear the following morning. If the ECM is showing something similar or even better come Saturday 12z run then I might start to take it seriously otherwise I,m afraid it might just be another case of up the garden path.:wallbash:

  On the other hand with a few a few minor tweaks it could become an absolute classic:cold:

We shall just have to wait and see.

I do hope for all the snow lovers on this forum that it is the latter

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes its good they prefer the ECM solution but sometimes consistency can mean consistently wrong! lol

The UKMO would be okay if it had a weaker low pressure further south near the UK at T144hrs. The GFS is beyond redemption and if that verified I'd be close to throwing the towel in.

 

Didn't ECM model January's cold spell better than the GFS overall?

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