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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

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Very interesting output seeing how dismal the winter has been I'd bank this run for a decent snow event , on the cold side of things & cyclonic leading to results like this...

ECM is not my friend today :nea::nea::nea:

image.thumb.png.c3f35077603aa7fb84764ac8image.thumb.png.138807cbb206e6f30d686427

 

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Liam Dutton on twitter, commenting that low pressure's next week - taking a more southerly track & with increased moisture available ? ( Enhanced snow risk ) ?

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Well after a pretty depressing day 12z gfs brings the chance of some decent snow events at times next week.

Ecm has  not provided the same level of interest so will be interesting to see todays 12z to see if its moved from its extremely underwhelming 0z run.

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2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

....but it's ENS stamps have, hence the possibility being flagged over last few days in medium range summaries. Some have replicated the sort of ideas seen in today's 12z GFS deterministic. 

Yes GFS 12z is certainly interesting as the sinking south of the jet introduces opportunities for snow, mainly but not exclusively for high ground .

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5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

....but it's ENS stamps have, hence the possibility being flagged over last few days in medium range summaries. Some have replicated the sort of ideas seen in today's 12z GFS deterministic. 

Quite. ECM Operational output has been among the milder cluster more often than not in recent times. In fact it has been one of milder runs among the milder cluster.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Hopefully it will show something cooler this evening rather than the ensemble suite mean moving toward it.

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Chances of increasing wintry pattern developing here.  I'm very pleased with the pattern 'upgrading' as was a tad disappointed that our coldest shot was seemingly watering down.  Eyes down over next few days, could get interesting. GFS 12 z not bad at all!

 

BFTP

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So... Just when we thought it was all over from this morning's musings on the Strat thread/latest high res model and MetO/Ian update things are starting to get interesting again?

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21 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

So... Just when we thought it was all over from this morning's musings on the Strat thread/latest high res model and MetO/Ian update things are starting to get interesting again?

Not sure interesting for us Southeners, apart from the hills that is. Still, looking at the GFS snow charts which obviously aren't that reliable the "chance" is still there. East or West, which would be best I wonder !!

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35 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

So... Just when we thought it was all over from this morning's musings on the Strat thread/latest high res model and MetO/Ian update things are starting to get interesting again?

Ah - to clarify, our discussion on strat thread was re the final part of Feb, not the upcoming medium range.

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ECM looking pretty steady over the two 12z runs for T144 v T168 

 

ECM1-144.GIF?03-0  v  ECM1-168.GIF?03-0

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144 caught my attention tonight. If one of these runners fell into place then some snowfall further south is not out of the question!

 

Recm1441.gifRtavn1441.gif    Rukm1441.gif

Edited by chris55

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11 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Ah - to clarify, our discussion on strat thread was re the final part of Feb, not the upcoming medium range.

Thanks for the clarification Ian :)

Oh well, seeing as we're only 2 days into the new month we'll just have to see if any cold signal reappears especially with regards to the MJO.

My understanding is that the current reason for the cold signal being dropped is that the outlook at present for the strat warming looks to be minor according to the models and not a 'game changer.' I think its still a case of wait and see for now what will unfold in regards to the strat and any impact of the MJO as we progress into February. Things could still end up very different 3-4 weeks from now, or not. 

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At 168 ECM looking much more interesting this evening.

 

Recm1681.gif

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Better ECM tonight at 168 and 192, but we're still looking for scraps down south. Definite improvement (if you like cold!) in 850 temps at that (FI) range.

ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

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2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

a general observation......why do people take long range or even mid range modelling as gospel?........like many others, I've read Ian's posts pertaining to the meto's models and mid range/seasonal models (and value his input as well as several other knowledgeable posters) but I've noticed that even the meto's models chop and change as they're all computer sims reliant on the initial data entered.............The weather will do what the weather will do, no computer simulation will influence the outcome 1, 2, 5, 10, or even 100 days from now......so "winter's over" type posts are utterly irrelevant......by all means discuss all the model outputs, after all, this is what the thread is about, but don't take the predicted output as gospel, 'nailed on' etc etc, or you'll drive yourself mad! :)     (I used to, and look at state of me now.....barking mad! :crazy: )

Agreed. Lets not forget that the models and long range outputs this time last month were predicting a January that would be as zonal, mild and stormy as December was throughout with no chance of any pattern change whatsoever and in the end we managed a 10 day anticyclonic cold spell which none of the models or long range forecasts were initially picking up and a decent length period of weather with no storms. So you never know what could happen with regards to long range forecasts and the eventual weather.

Edited by wishingforsnow

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Quite a wintry looking ecm op run tonight and we don't have to wait until days 9 and 10. I feel a tad excited about next week.

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Quite a wintry looking ecm op run tonight and we don't have to wait until days 9 and 10. I feel a tad excited about next week.

Agreed :)

Certainly offers you and me and others in our regions the best hope so far IMHO- no freeze but potential for one or two events, and ecm has certainly backed away from its dreadful 00z run.

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6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Quite a wintry looking ecm op run tonight and we don't have to wait until days 9 and 10. I feel a tad excited about next week.

I know snow isn't just about the 850s, but they don't look particularly good throughout this run unless you live high up a hill and the precipitation falls at night.

Still, given the awful Winter for cold, anything will do.

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Ref the METO long range not looking as good anymore, I'm guessing this is subject to change due to the SSW next week - can't imagine that's an easy forecasting period after one of those!!

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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed :)

Certainly offers you and me and others in our regions the best hope so far IMHO- no freeze but potential for one or two events, and ecm has certainly backed away from its dreadful 00z run.

Yeah, northern england looks to be the place to be - hopefully lol. You are much higher up than me so you look to be in a prime location :)

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