Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes a nice chart,but is there anything before this to get excited about..?

Very cold next week pretty early on.When the colds in place allsorts can crop up.

[Polar Maritime]

Another cold run throughout the 6z and into the start of Spring.. Winter certainly looks to have a sting in it's tail! Plenty of interest ahead 

Edited February 20, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Very cold next week pretty early on.When the colds in place allsorts can crop up.

Exactly. This time we could well be seeing cold get in, which has frankly lacked all winter. But we aren't there yet, many more runs needed before we allow the models to get me believing just yet. Bitten to many times this winter.

[Dancerwithwings]

Plenty on-goings this forthcoming week as always are still to unfold.

And a M4 corridor situation....will it won't it!!!  sleet or snow for Tuesday morning ?

The ECM & UKMO certainty thinks there's a chance.

[IDO]

GFS very fluid at the moment so I suspect the other models are also all over the place. FI as early as Tuesday with the GEFS divisive from then:

The GEFS pressure and 2m temps show the spread. Anything after is therefore pure speculation at the moment, though op and control are on the same page so that augurs well for the possible pattern change. 

The snow Tues/Wed looks marginal again as the London GEFS snow chances show, about 30%. 

[fergieweather]

59 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

does anyone have snowfall charts from ECM for Weds? Is it just a narrow band along the M4 corridor that may see snow from this? 

 

By 12z Tues, see below (00z run; NOT to be construed as snow necessarily settling). However, and without wanting to sound like stuck record, bear in mind ECMWF develops solid PPN too readily and thus tends to overplay snow coverage (GFS even worse). 00z UKMO-GM not keen on this outcome but given complexities of set-up, it's unsurprising to currently see little consensus. The 'snowier' outcome currently rated 30-50% Tues/Weds. Further ahead, MOGREPS-15 ENS are dominated by a markedly cold, stiff E-NE regime by weekend of 27-28th: far more dominant a signal in that suite versus the more mixed 00z EC-ENS.

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, Singularity said:

Edit: just seen what Fergie posted about the (lack of) southern snow on the 12z ECM of yesterday. I was mislead by bluearmy's post  (which is rare on his part I must stress!)

 

Ecm 12z did show a dusting for much of s England and Wales first thing tues - Ian's chart was for end tues by which time it would have melted away from the hills. 

Note that the 00z run has increased the chances. Anyway, I did say that the 12z run would not repeat in its latter stages and to see the systems further sw is no surprise to me. Pendulum could still swing back though. Certainly looking more seasonal and the many who predicted a cold early spring are currently looking smug.

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

By 12z Tues, see below (00z run; NOT to be construed as snow necessarily settling). However, and without wanting to sound like stuck record, bear in mind ECMWF develops solid PPN too readily and thus tends to overplay snow coverage (GFS even worse). 00z UKMO-GM not keen on this outcome but given complexities of set-up, it's unsurprising to currently see little consensus. The 'snowier' outcome currently rated 30-50% Tues/Weds. Further ahead, MOGREPS-15 ENS are dominated by a markedly cold, stiff E-NE regime by weekend of 27-28th: far more dominant a signal in that suite versus the more mixed 00z EC-ENS.

Ian, or others, just a tad interested in the bolded part, would it be fair to assume or hypothesise that a cold easterly would still produce decent convection at this very late stage of winter?

[winterof79]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ian, or others, just a tad interested in the bolded part, would it be fair to assume or hypothesise that a cold easterly would still produce decent convection at this very late stage of winter?

It definitely would bring heavy convective showers if it pans out like GFS or similar.March 2013 for example started like this

 

Here is GFS next week...make of that what you will

 

Edited February 20, 2016 by winterof79

[fergieweather]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ian, or others, just a tad interested in the bolded part, would it be fair to assume or hypothesise that a cold easterly would still produce decent convection at this very late stage of winter?

Complex. Showers in N certainly wintry to low levels; but awkward in S with potential for more organised PPN and perhaps wintriness on N'rn and W'rn flank(s). The pronounced, brisk E-NE regime indicated by MOGREPS can only be taken as moderate probability currently, until we see how EC ensembles handle it in coming days.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

 

Thanks for taking time to reply Ian, interesting few days coming up for cold lovers on NW

edit 22000 likes for 1500 posts, not bad young man , not bad 

Edited February 20, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Essex snowman]

Can I ask would northern and eastern areas have snow showers in a east north east wind and will it be cold enough just to be snow and not marginal in areas I quoted above regards Essex snowman 

[fergieweather]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks for taking time to reply Ian, interesting few days coming up for cold lovers on NW

edit 22000 likes for 1500 posts, not bad young man , not bad 

It's a shame some take to posting discussion here to twitter. Sadly this results in gross misconceptions by mass public and some media of what is being described and discussed. There will thus be no further sharing of this sort of model output from my end, because I'm afraid some evidently run with it direct to social media as representing nailed-on snow threat (it's self-evidently not and was explained as such).

Edited February 20, 2016 by fergieweather

[steveinsussex]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

It's a shame some take to posting discussion here to twitter. Sadly this results in gross misconceptions by mass public and some media of what is being described and discussed. There will thus be no further sharing of this sort of model output from my end, because I'm afraid some evidently run with it direct to social media as representing nailed-on snow threat (it's self-evidently not and was explained as such).

a shame others have to take advantage of your willingness to post on here

Edited February 20, 2016 by steveinsussex

[Essex snowman]

Fergie weather your be sorely missed by many members that genuinely love your input I for one would never go on Twitter to post what u put such a shame some people have ruined it for the majorty on here all the best to u for future Essex snowman 

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

It's a shame some take to posting discussion here to twitter. Sadly this results in gross misconceptions by mass public and some media of what is being described and discussed. There will thus be no further sharing of this sort of model output from my end, because I'm afraid some evidently run with it direct to social media as representing nailed-on snow threat (it's self-evidently not and was explained as such).

Blimey Ian i hope the actions of a minority dont prevent you from future posting, some of us appreciate your input massively - i for one always thank you for your valued input.

Hope you reconsider your decision for the thankful majority but i understand your frustration.

[fergieweather]

For clarity: I'm still posting, just not any further snow prog output from certain models. Cheers. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, fergieweather said:

For clarity: I'm still posting, just not any further snow prog output from certain models. Cheers. 

Fantastic.

On that note i'll leave you be

[Polar Maritime]

Just Model Output Discussion in here, Not who's going to post what.. Thanks.

Edited February 20, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

For clarity: I'm still posting, just not any further snow prog output from certain models. Cheers.

I don't blame you. Its amazing how things get recycled as they hit twitter and then are added to so what turns out as an initial chance of snow becomes definite snow and then a dusting becomes sledge conditions. I'm happy to see though that you will continue to post in here.

[alexisj9]

27 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

It's a shame some take to posting discussion here to twitter. Sadly this results in gross misconceptions by mass public and some media of what is being described and discussed. There will thus be no further sharing of this sort of model output from my end, because I'm afraid some evidently run with it direct to social media as representing nailed-on snow threat (it's self-evidently not and was explained as such).

Thank for everything you have done for us, I understand why it has to stop. I flipping hate twitter.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

For clarity: I'm still posting, just not any further snow prog output from certain models. Cheers. 

Great news fergieweather!

As for models, very pleasing trend to colder outlook and remaining generally unsettled which indicates a higher chance of snow and frequent frosts..at last!.

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Models please, Thanks.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

That is a seriously good chart with no shortage of cold to tap into.It also could draw in a n/e flow eventually as the Met allude to

Yes a nice chart,but is there anything before this to get excited about..?

[MR EXTREMES]

Firstly I'd like to add thank u fergieweather for your recent and past model discussions very privileged to have such a formal level headed discussion.

secondly I'd like to say any information u pass on has never been 100% gospel neither have u ever hyped anything up.

as for any conflict caused with in the met office and the media domain then I don't see the issue.

because the simple answer is there is across model support of everything Ian has suggested regardless of whether the glosea or ec indicated or indicate this colder conditions are being shown on the freely available models!

so put this to bed just because people want to hype or twist things for there own personal gain then that should not reflect on the actual truth.

and at no time do I feel u been incorrect with your analysis and the manner you have shared your ideas.

social media and the media alike have a habit of twisting the truth so I believe in no way does this reflect or should reflect on the original poster.

anyway interesting weather to come we have a few models wanting higher heights into the Atlantic and a low pressure in a prime location to our sw with the jet going a lot futher south allowing nw northerly and north easterly I see very similar pattern to the infamous winter of 09/10 but later in the season of course I got my towel back out of the ring but I'm ready to throw it back if future runs flatten the pattern again.

but I'm much more optimistic that things are finally setting up for at least chances of more in the way of wintry weather before Feb is finished.

looking forwards to tonight and tomorrow runs,

will be watching.

but not behind the sofa because I believe this is the best set up in a few years.