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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

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Lovely jubbly means tanking -NAO ?

2013 rerun is not out the question is it hyperbolic to say? I do know the month was characterised by cloud and dry conditions for S'England; wet or white for 2016?

But this just screams a worthy spell of wintry winter weather developing on the periphery of winter leading into meteorological spring, with cold air being dragged in from N/E.

better late than never... :)  

image.thumb.png.c496380872fd1d28f7b82371

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Quite an interesting set of model outputs this morning, all showing a mostly unsettled and quite cold theme, with heights establishing over the mid atlantic in some form or other and low pressure forced on a more NW-SE trajectory thanks to a southerly Jetstream. Difficult to pin down the end result of all this, models do struggle when we are running against the normal base state i.e. atlantic westerly/trough ridge pattern.

ECM yesterday evening showed a potent cold attack from the NE as we end the winter, its less bullish today, but there are signs we might pull in a cold NE feed by the turn of the month, if we see a more robust set of heights to the NW.

Might we see our coldest conditions of the old season occurring in Spring? - Its happened before..

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23 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Lovely jubbly means tanking -NAO ?

2013 rerun is not out the question is it hyperbolic to say? I do know the month was characterised by cloud and dry conditions for S'England; wet or white for 2016?

But this just screams a worthy spell of wintry winter weather developing on the periphery of winter leading into meteorological spring, with cold air being dragged in from N/E.

better late than never... :)  

image.thumb.png.c496380872fd1d28f7b82371

Judging by what I see a cold or at least below average temperature wise March is likely. However, it can't be as cold as 2013 because the Arctic (and the whole northern hemisphere) is much warmer than it was 3 years ago.

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19 minutes ago, karyo said:

Judging by what I see a cold or at least below average temperature wise March is likely. However, it can't be as cold as 2013 because the Arctic (and the whole northern hemisphere) is much warmer than it was 3 years ago.

I wouldnt be so sure it can rapidly become very cold :)

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25 minutes ago, karyo said:

Judging by what I see a cold or at least below average temperature wise March is likely. However, it can't be as cold as 2013 because the Arctic (and the whole northern hemisphere) is much warmer than it was 3 years ago.

The first week of March 2013 was mild charts below show winds originating from North Africa. I suppose winds from arctic will pack less a punch, a cold pool to the e/ne can develop quite quickly a remote possibility..well much more likely than a 2012.

image.thumb.png.83b334681c285b98e6f119f0image.thumb.png.33c3dbd22d06b8bd92d10c37

Edited by Daniel*
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This thread is getting a bit long, and as it seems we may be closing in on a new phase in our weather, I'm going to lock this shortly and start a fresh one..

New thread now open here:

 

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