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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

850 temperatures on average are ~5c colder than the surface, but this can vary massively. In an anticyclonic inversion situation the uppers will be warmer than at the surface.

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

-6 uppers - this refers to upper air temps, normally about 1 mile up  (known as 850hpa). This would mean the air at this level is -6C (so no conversion necessary) .

This usually implies that the air at the surface would be cold enough for snow. 

Ok so we need -6 uppers or lower..for snow?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok so we need -6 uppers or lower..for snow?

Not necessarily. -5c and below is usually ideal, but some very good snow events have come about with uppers only a degree or two below freezing. Needless to say though, the colder the better.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok so we need -6 uppers or lower..for snow?

really does vary, for my location off a showery Atlantic flow, I need -10 or lower, Arctic showery -7 ish, Easterly showery -5 ish

frontal/battleground with E or SE/SSE winds -2 will do, anything Atlantic air frontal, then -10

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok so we need -6 uppers or lower..for snow?

Well it gets complicated to be honest, other factors can come into play, but you'll pick that up over time.

If the air is coming from the sea then -6/-7 is pretty good for snow.

If the air is coming from the land (the continent ) then uppers of -1 or even 0 are enough.

The reason being the air is dryer coming from the land rather than the sea. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Permission to RAMPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP:cold::D

What an amazing ecm this evening- 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

I can barely contain myself !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
22 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Fair play for still having belief...mine has long gone. If I saw one of those charts showing snow at T+24 I'd still be hugely sceptical. This season just hasn't delivered, and can't see its dying days changing that sorry story.

I'll have belief right up until end of March, even into April when it's no longer possible to snow:D

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

So will there be a short wave spoiler, or a split of that energy heading across the Atlantic sending to much energy north killing the block? Or will our winter go out with our coldest spell yet? Answers on a postcode but I know where my money will be going.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, geoffw said:

i've just been crying and begging the ecm comes true for once 

Lol, lets see where it sits in the ensemble suite. Debilt 10 day set out around 8.30pm.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
1 minute ago, geoffw said:

i've just been crying and begging the ecm comes true for once 

:rofl:  man..that's deep!!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Pretty snowy ecm op

a light covering in the south into tues am

a disturbance coming down from the nw day 6

the occlusion headed in day 7

expect detail to change by the morning but this does look like disruption into colder air than we just had so better opportunities for snowfall 

Unfortunately too late and not liable to verify .What's new.

Loads of mass hysteria after a mild winter. It is next week again from the models.

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Unfortunately too late and not liable to verify .What's new.

Not sure why it's too late.....we had two weeks of winter left the last time i checked and March can still deliver early on.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

Not sure why it's too late.....we had two weeks of winter left the last time i checked and March can still deliver early on.

 

 

More garden path scenarios and we still believe it is gospel. Great fun model watching but not this winter as they have no idea.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

some posts recently are more suited to the winter moans/ramps thread.........sensible discussion on what the models are showing please

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

some posts recently are more suited to the winter moans/ramps thread.........sensible discussion on what the models are showing please

You are quite correct aj I should have gone in to moan mode.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Is any body seeing cold in these ensembles?

pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

I have been looking at model output for a long time and have seen much colder than these. I am not trying to be negative, but cannot see anything that some are seeing.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
10 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Is any body seeing cold in these ensembles?

pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

 

Erm!,yes!!!

most of them ens members go cooler than the mean with -5 to -8,and start from as early as the 22nd to the 4th,looks ok to me:)

the pluim one is from yesterday w79

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Is any body seeing cold in these ensembles?

pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

I have been looking at model output for a long time and have seen much colder than these. I am not trying to be negative, but cannot see anything that some are seeing.

ECM op shows why deblit ens are not all that useful in this potential scenario!

Recm1202.gif

And GFS ENS are trending colder.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Is any body seeing cold in these ensembles?

pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

I have been looking at model output for a long time and have seen much colder than these. I am not trying to be negative, but cannot see anything that some are seeing.

That's yesterday's De Bilt ECM ensemble plot

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

That's yesterday's De Bilt ECM ensemble plot

I did wonder if that was the case, i know those graphs have an odd timeframe mark, it can be misleading to be honest!

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I did wonder if that was the case, i know those graphs have an odd timeframe mark, it can be misleading to be honest!

Tonight's for WEERplaza - looks pretty good to me.

 

ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.thumb.pn

and mean 850 for 1 week away - -6 across middle of England - also pretty good

EDU0-144.thumb.gif.dc2f3d11ea55d0b06c038

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
43 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Unfortunately too late and not liable to verify .What's new.

Loads of mass hysteria after a mild winter. It is next week again from the models.

I tend to agree - if it's there in the morning, and again tomorrow evening, I might raise an eyebrow :D.

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