Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Allseasons-Si]

I will say the steve murr word......BOOM,

that's close enough to a 2010 chart.

 

Edited February 19, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Cloud 10]

JMA also "at it"

 

[Day 10]

it's about time we hit 3 cherries on this bloody UK winter snow lotto nevermind the jackpot!!! It's about time some of these charts verify!

[Daniel*]

192

The MJO at decent amplitude finally filtering in IMO into models therefore I feel this is not some sort of false nirvana?  

[Radiating Dendrite]

Wow......The ECM is in a particularly good mood. 

Let's be honest; it's the model you want to see showing this as it verifies best. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is sensational if you are a cold and snow fan...none of the marginal nonsense we had this week if this verifies next week!.Big Upgrade

[chris pawsey]

Not buying it just now... need to see this trend continue before I get over excited. We've had so many amazing charts in recent past only to downgrade... upgrade... downgrade to cold rain. I will be watching with anticipation but not jumping for joy yet and certainly not reaching for the sledge wax. 

[Allseasons-Si]

At 240 hrs with the low parked over us with sub -7 uppers,that  would be all snow

[SMU]

* disclaimer * 

if it goes t*ts up dont blame me-

The models this eve - in particular the ECM/GEM/JMA have increased the flow of CAA over the UK at 96/120

this is crucial to the potential of any snow event for lowland britain-

- for scotland a low sliding into -4 / -5c air would probably suffice

however those sort of uppers in the south are still to high - we ideally need embedded -8c but -6 may be ok-

also this is true polar air so unlike the atlantic pish from last week dewpoints will be lower -

all in all we couldnt have asked for a better ECM tonight....

s

[Cloud 10]

The changes in the ECM output this evening at a very short timescale are very encouraging,and lead on to a very decent cold spell.

 

ECM yesterday 96 hrs..

 

ECM today 72 hrs..

Edited February 19, 2016 by Cloud 10

[nick sussex]

ECM raises the stakes this evening sending snow lovers into a nerve shredding wait to see if something will finally go right.

The ECM and UKMO quite similar the GFS much quicker to drop the low se from Greenland.

Theres a better chance of an undercut if a shortwave low does track close enough to the UK as the cold air hasn't just appeared but is over Scotland for the next few days. Compared to the PM letdown a few days back this set up is much more condusive to snow.

After that the ECM drops the low towards the UK, preferably a toning down in the depth of the system would help, what you really want is this low to feed the Euro troughing and not be too far west. You want low pressure over central Europe to cut off the chance of milder air being pulled nw into the circulation.

Given the differences between this ECM run and the earlier one theres bound to be more changes especially given the movement of the MJO. I really don't mind changes as long as they're upgrades, we've had enough this winter of constant downgrades.

 

[chris55]

ECM 12z is probably the coldest run of the winter, and yes it is still winter for all you non believers ha.

Cold for all 

But this is my favourite chart

[Allseasons-Si]

Nearly all models at 72 hrs has that split low now,just gfs and jma have it attached but are getting there

[Southender]

Very nice ECM indeed. Proper winter charts with proper cold and snow for most later next week. Can't help thinking this is another one of these though....

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM 12z is probably the coldest run of the winter, and yes it is still winter for all you non believers ha.

Cold for all 

But this is my favourite chart

Yes I agree nice looking chart,but we can still improve on this maybe, if the trough is further south and east rather then over the UK!but yes an extremely good ecm tonight if it's still this good in 2 days time then we are all very happy!

[kev238]

Very good ECM. I think it is important to remember we aren't in March yet and these Synoptics could deliver in last few days of February . Whether they will be there tomorrow is the key question 

[mountain shadow]

Hopefully that's the MJO phase 8 bringing home the bacon.  Please make it so.

[chris55]

20 hours ago, fergieweather said:

The -ve screen temp anomalies from last week of Feb all the way on past mid-March (one such frame below) are generally weak - but versus previous output, now quite striking in latest EC Monthly, especially re longevity. Meanwhile, +ve PPN anomalies shift increasingly southwards through England and into continental Europe, with mean flow varying N to NNW to NNE throughout most of run, before losing any significant signal against climatology later next month. This fits well with UKMO suspicion re colder start to spring.

Something afoot....

Ians anomaly chart from yesterday is uncanny compared to the ECM op!

I know one op run does not make a forecast but as of tonight its quite interesting.

[Yarmy]

12 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

The changes in the ECM output this evening at a very short timescale are very encouraging,and lead on to a very decent cold spell.

 

ECM yesterday 96 hrs..

 

ECM today 72 hrs..

 Indeed. And the UKMO modelled it like this on yesterday's 12z:

 

It was on its own though, so most assumed it was unlikely, but based on this evening's runs... The Fax charts will be interesting later.  Looks like Winter might finally be arriving just in time for Spring.

 

[chris55]

8 minutes ago, Southender said:

Very nice ECM indeed. Proper winter charts with proper cold and snow for most later next week. Can't help thinking this is another one of these though....

 

 

Remember that beyond days 4-5 nothing is set in stone, and without cross model agreement and ensemble support i wouldn't even start walking the garden path yet! Just keep half an eye on the potential!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Could someone please help me with what would -6 uppers converted to c be?

[blizzard81]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Could someone please help me with what would -6 uppers converted to c be?

Add about 10 on, so approx 4 deg celcius.

[Carl46Wrexham]

1 hour ago, Vivian said:

I know, I'm frustrated too, but i'm just showing there's still a possibility.. 

Fair play for still having belief...mine has long gone. If I saw one of those charts showing snow at T+24 I'd still be hugely sceptical. This season just hasn't delivered, and can't see its dying days changing that sorry story.

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Add about 10 on, so approx 4 deg celcius.

Well thanks for that,the latest ecm is showing -8/10 uppers particuarly cold through midweek!just hope it verifies.

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Could someone please help me with what would -6 uppers converted to c be?

-6 uppers - this refers to upper air temps, normally about 1 mile up  (known as 850hpa). This would mean the air at this level is -6C (so no conversion necessary) .

This usually implies that the air at the surface would be cold enough for snow.