Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I think people have  been taken for a ride enough times this Winter Nick, that they don't want to fall for it again.

I think many are happy to sit this one out & not get on the rollercoaster again.

 

Models do look good, but they always have at +96z onwards.

Good luck to anyone who's down to see snow...... your going to need it.

Indeed. Latest warning (just issued) for West Yorks says "a centimetre of slush at lower levels". It's a poor do if that's all we've got to chase. 

[Frosty.]

Astonishing contrast on Gfs 6z from north to south on Sunday at noon with very spring like conditions in the south and very wintry conditions across the north of the uk

[coldcomfort]

Welcome to the UK... home of right synoptics, wrong time of year! No surprise whatsoever to see a flip in the models, from the normal winter service of initial cold being downgraded to mild, to the normal spring service of initial mild being upgraded to cold!  Yes I know it is still official meteorological winter and most of us will take anything white that we can get our hands on, but I bet come the summer solstice all of us will be pig sick of feeling cold! 

 

[mushymanrob]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Have all the cold and snow lovers been abducted by a fanatical mild ramping group? Seems very quiet in here considering the outputs!

The models have changed dramatically from just a few days ago with a better chance of more cold and possible snow next week.

yep, i got the buggers locked up in knockers woodshed!

but seriously, the prospect of lying snow isnt very high, id assume snow lovers would like to see a dumping that settles and makes everything wintry... the models dont really support that, (well away from high ground) and the prospect of wet slush doesnt really float anyones boat?

[Catacol]

28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Have all the cold and snow lovers been abducted by a fanatical mild ramping group? Seems very quiet in here considering the outputs!

The models have changed dramatically from just a few days ago with a better chance of more cold and possible snow next week.

Sorry Nick - but my enthusiasm and interest in this winter has passed. All I can see in the models for next week is cold rain. No significant blocking, no continental feed. The winter of 2015/16 is going to be placed pretty close to the top - if not actually at the top - of the horror list for the South of England at least. Speaking to those north of the border it has been rather different..... but for lowland southern England the faster we get through into Spring now the better. 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Indeed. Latest warning (just issued) for West Yorks says "a centimetre of slush at lower levels". It's a poor do if that's all we've got to chase. 

WOW 1cm of slush, as much as that!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Come on folks this isn't the Nick Sussex Show ! lol Two possible snow events after this midweek possibility on the GFS 06hrs run. Maybe everyones just a bit worn out and fatigued by the winter so far. Keep the faith, we have one last chance helped by the MJO.

I said a few weeks ago that I was going to throw the towel in but would wait to see if the MJO could help as that IMO was the variable that could deliver a better colder spell of weather.

Anyway lets keep our fingers crossed that the cards will fall kindly!

Morning Nick , how's things ?

yes the 06 looks like it's caught on to the same Synoptics as the ECM was showing this morning with raising heights in the Atlantic stretching northwards towards greenland , with undercutting low pressure it really would promote snow events , with an east based -NAO it really doesn't get much better than that with regards Synoptics , we no March really can be an extension of winter so that sort set up will really can still deliver the goods .

 Also with a stronger sun and cold upper air temps no doubt we will see some good convection which can be very interesting weather with sharp sudden blizzards and extreme temperature gradients . 

So definitely a colder outlook over the next 10 days with more snow chances on the way .

[Yarmy]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yep, i got the buggers locked up in knockers woodshed!

but seriously, the prospect of lying snow isnt very high, id assume snow lovers would like to see a dumping that settles and makes everything wintry... the models dont really support that, (well away from high ground) and the prospect of wet slush doesnt really float anyones boat?

 

Very much this, I'll have hours of rain before it turns to snow but hey ho. Meanwhile, the whole 6z run is pretty cool/cold with -8C 850hpa frequently kissing the East Coast.

[bobbydog]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes that's perfectly understandable. Its been a long and generally fruitless winter for cold and snow lovers. The synoptics though that the GFS 06hrs run is showing are supported by the movement of the MJO so at least theres some reasonable support and its not just plucked out a fantasy solution. Of course in the UK if things can go wrong they seem to when it comes to cold and snow so your advice re sitting this one out and just seeing how things develop is good. Best to manage expectations.

yes nick.  we've been here before many times. we always raise our hopes in these situations but 9 times out of 10, when its marginal, it goes the wrong way. the GFS shows a fair chance for some but the UKMO charts tell a more honest story. (for the south at least) that "channel low" keeps the uppers and surface temps a little too high. however even at this range, the tiniest of tweaks could mean the difference between a feeble sleety mix and full-on snow. either way, personally im expecting the former for my location. from what the models are showing, the front has to stall west of here (i should probably say the back edge of the rain band) to give central areas a decent chance of snow. sadly that means i get nothing. dont worry though guys- i'll take a bullet for the team!

cheeky snap from the GFS though-

lol

Edited February 16, 2016 by bobbydog

[Steeve88]

Hi folks,

as I promised this is an update for the weather that we should expect the next 48-72 hours. There is still a chance for snow at low levels early on Thurday (we'll keep an eye on it):


http://www.northmeteo.gr/blog/uk-rapid-change-of-the-weather-1622016/

[snowangel32]

It seems model fatigue has set in at a time when the models are showing the best charts of the winter, big upgrade for snow potential on Wed/thurs and if the trend continues i think the SE could see an all snow event my area alone is now forecast 6 hours plus of snow now. Next week also looking intresting now also. And with Fergie giving us Hope for end of Feb begining of March things are finally looking up for coldies. 

[Singularity]

It's amazing really how well it has been possible to anticipate model trends well in advance using primarily the MJO coupled with awareness of the unusual nature of the current El Nino event and how that permits an active MJO instead of suppressing it.

 

Short term... as of the 00z runs I was consigning myself to just seeing a bit of light snow falling early tomorrow but the slight adjustments on the 06z have given me cause to hope for perhaps a little more, though accumulations remain highly unlikely in this neck of the woods. Just seeing falling snow in daylight would be alright for me at the moment - that's how starved I have been these past few years!

Then we have that milder blip this weekend - barely even making it to the far N - before next week looks to be 'sliders part III' as we again see upstream amplification working with the NW-SE jet alignment to promote trough disruption and sliding lows. The week just gone once looked rather like next week is looking as of this morning in the GFS output, which gives us an idea just how far south and west the lows could be adjusted - perhaps leaving us chilly and often dry again. Should at least be more in the way of cold air to work with as there is more room for height rises to the NW that can feed cold air down across the UK ahead of those sliding lows.

It'd be good if, as the MJO moved toward phase 7, we could see a response in the form of a sliding low becoming rooted across Europe and supporting a ridge through Scandinavia. The thing about this phase of the MJO is that the corresponding pattern across Europe is only weakly defined. Good support for those wedges of higher pressure to the NW and N though. Having said that, considering that the El Nino isn't exactly typical right now, there is room for something a little more toward the non-Nino pattern which I have included on the right:

 

So a Scandi high is certainly possible for the back end of Feb, though I still favour a HP location more to the N/NW. 

Worth keeping an eye on the MJO observation points over the next couple of days to see if it slows down as much as the models are expecting. It really has hurtled through phase 5 over the past couple of days.

The fast movement reflects the fact that really it's a dry Kelvin Wave at this stage. The expectation is that this serves as a catalyst for transition to an MJO wave now that it has reached the unusually toasty Central Pacific waters where there is also a more supportive atmospheric setup.

If it does go through 6 faster than expected this may enhance the wedges of higher heights next week and could also increase the likelihood of progression to phase 8 before decay, which would be a significant milestone for those seeking more than just 'standard' cold weather in early March.

 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Nick I just don't have anything to add this morning. I don't think anyone has the slightest clue whether it will snow or not, north and south, and its been like that for days. The latest EURO 4 makes nothing clearer:

As for next week, I do have this feeling things are getting colder and colder, but just how many chases can one get involved in!!

[stodge]

Morning all

A rare chance for me to have a quick peruse of the latest model output. One or two observations past this midweek's interests:

1) The milder spell for this weekend has been progressively reduced so it's now just a "mild snap" for the south on Sunday rather than a countrywide pre-spring.

2) Again and again, the models show the trough trying to dig SE into continental Europe and when it succeeds we get a brief spell of very cold NE'ly winds. The problem is there is no height rise in Scandinavia to hold that in place so the Atlantic sweeps it away. That has been the case for the past three winters - amplification is incomplete, the trough disrupts but the heights don't rise to the NE so it's a transient feature.

3) Wither the PV - no spelling mistake ? For me, the biggest "false dawn" in the models has been the consistent and persistent PV. Time and again, a majority of the members and even occasionally the OP itself weakens or moves the PV but as we move into high-res the PV returns to its usual place. Once again, plenty of the members on the 06Z suite weaken the PV significantly in low-res and therefore promote HLB. That remains, as has been said so many times, the big problem - the PV remains in the wrong place and oriented the wrong way to provide that amplification.

I still think a blocked March is a possibility but I worry the strat warming showing for early March will take too long to propagate. As I argued on another thread, it wouldn't surprise me to see an early "false spring" warm spell as the HP sets up near the British Isles before a much colder scenario in mid March via retrogression.

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

It makes me laugh,how the models can not get it right about possible snow tomorrow,for this reason u have to question how good they really are....my guess though would be that northern England may see snow for a couple of hours Wednesday afternoon,before the front moves southeastward and I believe the best chance of snow will be the eastern side of the country tomorrow night into Thursday morning.for example somwhere like Northamptonshire could see a fair bit I guess maybe 2 or 3 inches

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Not as good as it looked 2 days ago gone abit rubbish that pink was pure dark and much bigger

[Paul]

Tomorrow night into range of the higher-res netwx model now, it's still not keen on much in the way lying snow away from higher ground but for those just hoping for some wet snow/sleet then it's still showing enough of that. 

[Blake]

7 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

It makes me laugh,how the models can not get it right about possible snow tomorrow,for this reason u have to question how good they really are....my guess though would be that northern England may see snow for a couple of hours Wednesday afternoon,before the front moves southeastward and I believe the best chance of snow will be the eastern side of the country tomorrow night into Thursday morning.for example somwhere like Northamptonshire could see a fair bit I guess maybe 2 or 3 inches

Because it is probably within a degree or two away from being wet or white, some places will get a dumping and others will miss out. Could be white at 500m asl but wet at 400m asl. It's that close a call that it will only be clearer within 12 hours prior to the event.

Interesting outlook for end of next week... almost repeating tomorrow/Thurs as what was forecast 5 days ago.

[Lukesluckybunch]

15 minutes ago, GUWeather said:

Because it is probably within a degree or two away from being wet or white, some places will get a dumping and others will miss out. Could be white at 500m asl but wet at 400m asl. It's that close a call that it will only be clearer within 12 hours prior to the event.

Interesting outlook for end of next week... almost repeating tomorrow/Thurs as what was forecast 5 days ago.

Yes nice to see,but always so far out!always chasing the cold!the most Important thing wil be get in the cold in place first,then worry about the snow.the general theme is good though with generally cold conditions next week! 

[mushymanrob]

23 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

It makes me laugh,how the models can not get it right about possible snow tomorrow,for this reason u have to question how good they really are...

the models have got it pretty much spot on, predicting tomorrows frontal system many days ago. the overall pattern is going as expected . tomorrows event was always going to be  a marginal affair for snow.

imho the models have got it pretty much spot on since this evolution was first predicted mid last week.

[IDO]

The hi-res models remain unconvinced about this being anything other than some light sleety stuff, and that in a very confined SE area, when the front is in its last throws. No doubt mountains and hills could be different.

NNMUK 06z, T38:    T46: 

 

Arpege 06z T38:   T47: 

Better than nothing.

All subject to change of course.

Edited February 16, 2016 by IDO

[winterof79]

EURO4 at 36z

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/02/16/basis06/ukuk/prty/16021800_1606.gif

GFS 0.25

 

Sunday and the warmer air gets chased out of town again, and if caught running away you will be turned to ice

Edited February 16, 2016 by winterof79

[winterof79]

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/england-wales.php?icao=EGNM

Rain to snow in the early hours with altitude. I would say more snow as the day progresses

Sorry wrong thread, should be in regionals. May be of interest though.

Edited February 16, 2016 by winterof79

[Liam J]

Completely blank NetWx-SR & Euro4 snow accumulation charts for 6am Thursday. 

GFS a bit more generous. 

 

[Paul]

A slight word of caution on the differences in the data there - the gfs will be a 6 hour total, netwx  a 1 hour total, and the euro4 is a rolling total from the start (I believe). 

The 24 hour accumulated total up to 6am Thurs is showing some snow on the netwx model, in pretty similar places to the euro 4