Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Faronstream]

ECMWF 00Z looks "okay" in long range  ( 22-24 feb), chance of snow( probably wet) from Worcester, Northampton, Birmingham and northward. It must go under -7 850hpa if you want cold snow

For rest of Europé it looks slightly over normal temp for being end of February

[snowangel32]

12 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

ECMWF 00Z looks "okay" in long range  ( 22-24 feb), chance of snow( probably wet) from Worcester, Northampton, Birmingham and northward. It must go under -7 850hpa if you want cold snow

For rest of Europé it looks slightly over normal temp for being end of February

Don't forget the mild sector or the shortwave that will inevitably appear on the models every time. Just more rain to look forward so hard to be positive about models considering how inaccurate they have been recently even at short range.

Edited February 14, 2016 by snowangel32

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

Two rain events for the week ahead. Wednesday a cold front but the GFS now shows a total rain event , then a warm front on Friday to herald a mild weekend with 12-14 possible:

Sat: Sun: 

Hopefully the models will firm up on a nice weekend, being half term at least a few mild dry days in the mix.

 

4

 

 

 

 

 

And a couple of lovely crisp cold dry (aside from some wintry showers towards the East) days to start the week, I love Winter. Largely rain during the main mid-week event but back edge snow, especially at elevation cannot be ruled out at three to four days range.

Edited February 14, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[A.J]

52 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

IDO is wrong.

The front stalls over SE/EA with some back-edge snow being offered.

whilst I prefer snow and cold in winter, how is IDO wrong?.....it hasn't happened yet! 

[Chris K]

20 minutes ago, Banbury said:

J F F

Snow for most deep into FI

These sort of charts have been showing up towards the start of Spring more regularly, albeit far into FI of course. What are the chances we will have a cold start to the season?

I think a positive way I am looking at things is that we are seeing a reduction of storms heading directly towards the UK. Yes some rain at times, but the conveyor of storms we have experienced quite often this winter looks to calm down a tad - thanks to an increasing influence from the Azores high.

Will probably change next run of course!!

Edited February 14, 2016 by Chris K

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

whilst I prefer snow and cold in winter, how is IDO wrong?.....it hasn't happened yet! 

because he states the GFS shows a rain event when there is some snow involved on the GFS in both events as it happens, maybe pedantic as it Is a poor run for snow for the majority and you usually know its not good news when he posts! and he hasn't bucked the trend this time!

[Daniel*]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

whilst I prefer snow and cold in winter, how is IDO wrong?.....it hasn't happened yet! 

Suggesting it being a complete washout IDO is providing an inaccurate assessment, what he wants folk to hear no doubt about that, even the forecast raised it.

 

[A.J]

34 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Suggesting it being a complete washout IDO is providing an inaccurate assessment, what he wants folk to hear no doubt about that, even the forecast raised it.

 

I disagree....it's down to semantics..........what that chart shows (not that I take any ppn chart that far out nothing more than a very broad indicator) is for the vast majority of ppn to be rainfall with hint of a short period of back end wintry ppn which would be utterly wasted considering the wet sodden ground............Also, it's worth pointing out that sadi GFS ppn charts have shown far more widespread snow (hashed symbols) this weekend just gone in southern England, and 99% of folk have just seen cold rain, so in this instance IDO's assessment of those charts and what they are likely to yield if they verify, is pretty accurate IMHO  

[Tim Bland]

12z ECM looks more promising for the mid week snow event. Trough disrupts and mild is mixed out quicker with cool uppers. Going to go down to the wire And IMO it's going to be a sleety mix with snow on high ground. 

PS if your in the south east check out the radar! Snow in-coming !

 

[Nick L]

Just a reminder that if your post starts with "Off topic, but...", "Sorry mods, off topic..." or any variation of that, just don't bother posting it please. Saying "sorry off topic" does not mean the rules suddenly stop applying. You're wasting your own time and our time having to clear it up.

Thanks.

[nick sussex]

The lack of comments re the ECM sums up the fatigue and weariness of cold and snow lovers!

Certainly more interesting than this mornings output, but I think most are probably shrugging their shoulders with an element of disdain!

Its hard to keep chasing this potential shown in FI.

[Lukesluckybunch]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12z ECM looks more promising for the mid week snow event. Trough disrupts and mild is mixed out quicker with cool uppers. Going to go down to the wire And IMO it's going to be a sleety mix with snow on high ground. 

PS if your in the south east check out the radar! Snow in-coming !

 

Sorry what do you mean snow incoming when.?

[Tim Bland]

Excellent ECM 12z ! More snow opportunities early nxt week. Notice the small low to the SE. Another marginal snow event is possible! 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Sorry what do you mean snow incoming when.?

He's talking about tonight's event.

[geminitracie]

27 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12z ECM looks more promising for the mid week snow event. Trough disrupts and mild is mixed out quicker with cool uppers. Going to go down to the wire And IMO it's going to be a sleety mix with snow on high ground. 

PS if your in the south east check out the radar! Snow in-coming !

 

Lots of snow showers incoming tonight \ tomorrow according to the latest BBC forecast

[Polar Maritime]

And back to the Models please thanks.

[chris55]

ECM just about holds my interest regarding mid week, the mild air does get mixed out before the front makes inroads, however we need tj\at front to stall over us rather than push through!

[Frosty.]

Just for fun, just to bring a bit of cheer for coldies in this horrific winter..the Gfs 12z shows a wintry end to the meteorological winter into early spring, i hope March can put this dreadful winter to shame with some snowy spells!...im hoping those GloSea5 members keep showing colder outcomes!

[snowangel32]

14 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Just for fun, just to bring a bit of cheer for coldies in this horrific winter..the Gfs 12z shows a wintry end to the meteorological winter into early spring, i hope March can put this dreadful winter to shame with some snowy spells!...im hoping those GloSea5 members keep showing colder outcomes!

Karl, you got my hopes up there at first i thought it was mid week then i read on and realised its in never never land. If we get a snowy end to Feb are you going to be Frosty again. Karl just doesn't pack the same punch lol. Glad to see you still kept up your spirits and havent given up.

[shaky]

Gota say after looking at the ecm for midweek not all is lost snow wise!!i was surprised with the ecm actually and the 850s are far better than this mornings run!!winds back southerly ahead of it aswell so might even import even colder dew points ahead of the front!!

[Frosty.]

46 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Glad to see you still kept up your spirits and havent given up.

Thanks I almost gave up but I've bounced back with hopes that late February into March could deliver the snow fix all UK coldies so richly deserve and actually the week ahead isn't bad at all, on the cold side with night frosts and a mix of rain, sleet and even some snow for some areas midweek..there have been plenty of weeks this winter with no frost or snow..fingers crossed for colder times to come!

Edited February 14, 2016 by Karl.

[nick sussex]

The midweek is looking a bit of a mess with a lot of uncertainty.

The UKMO if you look at the fax chart has the fronts slow moving over central areas, the surface flow is important because on one side you've got some PM air and the other drier continental. I think the issue is whether some of that drier air with lower dew points gets pulled back into the UK.

Its quite an unusual set up, often with these you've got milder air trying to displace the cold but here you've got some PM air trying to displace the surface cold over the se.

Chances increase if a shortwave develops on the front towards the Channel as that could help steer the drier continental flow back into the UK.

It could go either way  here in terms of snow.

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The midweek is looking a bit of a mess with a lot of uncertainty.

The UKMO if you look at the fax chart has the fronts slow moving over central areas, the surface flow is important because on one side you've got some PM air and the other drier continental. I think the issue is whether some of that drier air with lower dew points gets pulled back into the UK.

Its quite an unusual set up, often with these you've got milder air trying to displace the cold but here you've got some PM air trying to displace the surface cold over the se.

Chances increase if a shortwave develops on the front towards the Channel as that could help steer the drier continental flow back into the UK.

It could go either way  here in terms of snow.

Also nick the ecm backs your view of this morning ukmo when it showed colder 850s aswell!!its amazing how the ecm has changed this evening with those 850 temps!!it was a lot milder this morning!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Yes this evening ecm is quite good,with a lot of the UK still in -4 uppers Wednesday midday..I'm just asking when will the gfs back this,or will it at all..maybe a different looking 18z coming up??what's even better also is that it's quiet a interesting run with only the weekend a bit milder, before it turns colder again the following week!

Edited February 14, 2016 by Lukesluckybunch

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes this evening ecm is quite good,with a lot of the UK still in -4 uppers Wednesday midday..I'm just asking when will the gfs back this,or will it at all..maybe a different looking 18z coming up??

I think we are past the point of no return wrt any nationwide event down the spine of the country, its just seeing if the models can just hold back the front for a tiny bit longer and get a few favoured places some snow, it would take too much of a climbdown now at too later stage for anything better.