Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[nick sussex]

The ECM has an unusual evolution between T120 and T144hrs with a low dropping se and deepening. It looks pretty nasty with some very strong winds on the southern flank.

At T168hrs the ECM still wants to have some trough disruption in the Atlantic compared to the GFS which is less enthused.

It also keeps more of the deeper low heights associated with the PV further west.

Well the ECM T192hrs is more amplified over the ne USA than the GFS. If the low near the UK and associated train of shortwave energy can separate from the PV lobe over ne Canada at T216hrs then it might get more interesting.

 

Edited February 5, 2016 by nick sussex

[Cloud 10]

ECM at 168 hrs,that HP block to the NE is becoming more influential run by run.

 

[SMU]

Evening All

The ECM is a chilly run tonight & synoptically looks good - however with no cold air its cold rain all the way apart from the 200M elevations in the North

 

if you want true cold then its probably the coldest run for years for the NE of the US which is saying something as this region was in the news for brutal cold in recent years- however at 216 the ECM has the whole of upstate NY under the -28c isotherm... Thats very rare... Probably over 20c @850 colder than norm        

     S

 

 

Edited February 5, 2016 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

A very frustrating ECM run as SM has mentioned some good synoptics that would if there was any decent cold to the east produce shed loads of snow.

Once again the ne USA has stolen all the cold! The issue is once again the lack of any decent blocking to transport some cold air into the mix.

 

[Daniel*]

ECM +216

Perhaps we can start looking to the far NW for signs of blocking? 

[Bristawl Si]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM +216

Perhaps we can start looking to the far NW for signs of blocking? 

Perhaps it's time to look South for some early Spring warmth.

[Meggy]

31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All

The ECM is a chilly run tonight & synoptically looks good - however with no cold air its cold rain all the way apart from the 200M elevations in the North

 

if you want true cold then its probably the coldest run for years for the NE of the US which is saying something as this region was in the news for brutal cold in recent years- however at 216 the ECM has the whole of upstate NY under the -28c isotherm... Thats very rare... Probably over 20c @850 colder than norm        

     S

 

 

Goody! I'm flying to New York on the 14th for a week. I can wear the jumpers I bought and haven't worn here yet!

[mb018538]

The ECM looks unbelievable in the NE states....imagine what the weather nuts over the pond are chatting about after seeing 850s there down to -28c!!!!!! Incredible. More of the same over our side. Cold rain, and not much hope either.

[mb018538]

Here's the chart to view:

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Perhaps it's time to look South for some early Spring warmth.

I'll pass.

No sign of that at least.  

 

[pureasthedriven]

26 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Perhaps it's time to look South for some early Spring warmth.

Yep. Yawn. Crap Spring alert. 

 

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Perhaps it's time to look South for some early Spring warmth.

Didn't we have that in December...southerly blowtorch and temps of 15-17 celsius and lots of daffodils!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! Once again we are in no mans land regarding cold. The models are toying with colder and stormy  conditions in the near future , I think we need to sit back and fasten our seatbelts and see what the twisty road offers....Winter has got a long way to go yet.....

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Here's the chart to view:

Indeed, and I bet they never have to endure the models showing cold at day '10' without it ever verifying. No too jealous!!! 

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening!...Winter has got a long way to go yet.....

 

 

 

No it hasn't.

The internet soothsayers were wrong with their predictions of a cold 2nd half of Winter and they'll be wrong with predictions of cold March and April.

[Singularity]

Given that our only existing example of how the MJO behaves with the current background state is from mid-Dec to mid-Jan this year, I'm surprised the UKMO aren't making at least a theoretical adjustment upward (in amplitude) to the MJO orbit projected by ECM.

After all, the latest update from the operational is really going for it from about a week's time, almost at a 'moderate' amplitude as opposed to low.

I do wonder what's up with UKME these days. It keeps jumping the MJO into mid-range amplification during the 24 hours after initiation, which never actually happens. What must the UKMO make of that 

Anyway, I'm increasingly of the impression that such forcing will produce rather good looking setups at times mid-month, but mostly without adequate cold air getting involved, and then serve to delay the onset of spring and quite probably send temperatures on an opposing trend late Feb and into March. Trouble is, it's going to take some very strong MJO forcing to produce something worth putting up with the absence of springlike weather for, and that really would be a rare event for an El Nino atmospheric state.

This assumes, of course, that the stratosphere continues to be of little help or influence. As in one, the other, or both.

 

Looking at the analogues for MJO phases 5-6-7-8-1, it appears that phases 5-6 may only serve to enhance the pattern of lows tracking right into the UK, but after that it's a rapidly improving picture with HLB increasingly abundant:

   

   

Phases 8 and 1 are pretty mind-blowing. It's amazing that such a strong correlation exists. It eases off into March (final image) but the general pattern is very similar.

Obviously these are only a general guide, especially given that the background state is not entirely in sync with the usual East Pacific type El Nino event.

Indeed the EP forcing may gradually wane through the coming 6 weeks as Central Pacific forcing becomes more significant. The issue is the residual impacts from the EP forcing propagating through the atmospheric system - how much and for how long? I am not sure, to be honest. I guess the more it lingers the better with respect to the phase 8/1 MJO influence, given that those composites assume such a state of play.

[geoffw]

what would be the surface temperature be under -28 air be???

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No it hasn't.

The internet soothsayers were wrong with their predictions of a cold 2nd half of Winter and they'll be wrong with predictions of cold March and April.

Whoever these internet soothsayers are, they gave it their best shot, backed up with lots of technical analysis and for that they should be applauded rather than mocked!...and who is to say we won't have a wintry spell in march..it happened 3 years ago..

[phil nw.]

As already posted some notable cold being modeled over North America/Canada.

ECM has already been mentioned ,what about the GFS

uppers of -36C! at t156hrs and look at the 2mtr temps at T144hrs.

remarkable stuff.It does show how a mass release of pent up Arctic cold over a large landmass can really drop those temperatures to bone chilling levels.

 

Edited February 5, 2016 by phil nw.

[Banbury]

22 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No it hasn't.

The internet soothsayers were wrong with their predictions of a cold 2nd half of Winter and they'll be wrong with predictions of cold March and April.

Why do you say this

[Cleeve Hill]

34 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! Once again we are in no mans land regarding cold. The models are toying with colder and stormy  conditions in the near future , I think we need to sit back and fasten our seatbelts and see what the twisty road offers....Winter has got a long way to go yet.....

As a model discussion thread you look at the 12z ECM and it looks like a good winter chart to me.  No south westerlies. No Euro high. Look pretty similar to the wintry week we had in Jan.  Below ave temps next week in my eyes. 

[ANYWEATHER]

26 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

No it hasn't.

The internet soothsayers were wrong with their predictions of a cold 2nd half of Winter and they'll be wrong with predictions of cold March and April.

So Why are you so sure ? You seem pretty angry with my comment .......Have a look at the statistical evidence

[dragonfalls]

I like to no which models exacta weather gets there forecast from ? Where did the cold go in Europe the east.

[weirpig]

Gfs showing very strong winds again for the south of the country

[Blake]

1 hour ago, geoffw said:

what would be the surface temperature be under -28 air be???

Somewhere between -15 to -20 generally. Household freezer temperatures.