Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Daniel*]

Very interesting output seeing how dismal the winter has been I'd bank this run for a decent snow event , on the cold side of things & cyclonic leading to results like this...

ECM is not my friend today 

 

[xtremeweather]

Liam Dutton on twitter, commenting that low pressure's next week - taking a more southerly track & with increased moisture available ? ( Enhanced snow risk ) ?

[northwestsnow]

Well after a pretty depressing day 12z gfs brings the chance of some decent snow events at times next week.

Ecm has  not provided the same level of interest so will be interesting to see todays 12z to see if its moved from its extremely underwhelming 0z run.

[fergieweather]

Just now, xtremeweather said:

Liam Dutton on twitter, commenting that low pressure's next week - taking a more southerly track & with increased moisture available ? ( Enhanced snow risk ) ?

Yes, the potential has been flagged for a few days now, looking ahead. Clearly, devil in the detail but in broad terms, snow could well occur further south at times compared to (most) recent weeks.

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well after a pretty depressing day 12z gfs brings the chance of some decent snow events at times next week.

Ecm has  not provided the same level of interest so will be interesting to see todays 12z to see if its moved from its extremely underwhelming 0z run.

....but it's ENS stamps have, hence the possibility being flagged over last few days in medium range summaries. Some have replicated the sort of ideas seen in today's 12z GFS deterministic. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

....but it's ENS stamps have, hence the possibility being flagged over last few days in medium range summaries. Some have replicated the sort of ideas seen in today's 12z GFS deterministic. 

Yes GFS 12z is certainly interesting as the sinking south of the jet introduces opportunities for snow, mainly but not exclusively for high ground .

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

....but it's ENS stamps have, hence the possibility being flagged over last few days in medium range summaries. Some have replicated the sort of ideas seen in today's 12z GFS deterministic. 

Quite. ECM Operational output has been among the milder cluster more often than not in recent times. In fact it has been one of milder runs among the milder cluster.

Hopefully it will show something cooler this evening rather than the ensemble suite mean moving toward it.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Chances of increasing wintry pattern developing here.  I'm very pleased with the pattern 'upgrading' as was a tad disappointed that our coldest shot was seemingly watering down.  Eyes down over next few days, could get interesting. GFS 12 z not bad at all!

 

BFTP

[wishingforsnow]

So... Just when we thought it was all over from this morning's musings on the Strat thread/latest high res model and MetO/Ian update things are starting to get interesting again?

[Ali1977]

21 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

So... Just when we thought it was all over from this morning's musings on the Strat thread/latest high res model and MetO/Ian update things are starting to get interesting again?

Not sure interesting for us Southeners, apart from the hills that is. Still, looking at the GFS snow charts which obviously aren't that reliable the "chance" is still there. East or West, which would be best I wonder !!

[fergieweather]

35 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

So... Just when we thought it was all over from this morning's musings on the Strat thread/latest high res model and MetO/Ian update things are starting to get interesting again?

Ah - to clarify, our discussion on strat thread was re the final part of Feb, not the upcoming medium range.

[Timmytour]

ECM looking pretty steady over the two 12z runs for T144 v T168 

 

  v  

[andymusic]

looking decidely windy and stormy for Monday

[chris55]

144 caught my attention tonight. If one of these runners fell into place then some snowfall further south is not out of the question!

 

    

Edited February 3, 2016 by chris55

[wishingforsnow]

11 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Ah - to clarify, our discussion on strat thread was re the final part of Feb, not the upcoming medium range.

Thanks for the clarification Ian 

Oh well, seeing as we're only 2 days into the new month we'll just have to see if any cold signal reappears especially with regards to the MJO.

My understanding is that the current reason for the cold signal being dropped is that the outlook at present for the strat warming looks to be minor according to the models and not a 'game changer.' I think its still a case of wait and see for now what will unfold in regards to the strat and any impact of the MJO as we progress into February. Things could still end up very different 3-4 weeks from now, or not. 

[Timmytour]

But a pretty different T192 v T216  

  v  

[chris55]

At 168 ECM looking much more interesting this evening.

 

[kumquat]

Better ECM tonight at 168 and 192, but we're still looking for scraps down south. Definite improvement (if you like cold!) in 850 temps at that (FI) range.

[wishingforsnow]

2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

a general observation......why do people take long range or even mid range modelling as gospel?........like many others, I've read Ian's posts pertaining to the meto's models and mid range/seasonal models (and value his input as well as several other knowledgeable posters) but I've noticed that even the meto's models chop and change as they're all computer sims reliant on the initial data entered.............The weather will do what the weather will do, no computer simulation will influence the outcome 1, 2, 5, 10, or even 100 days from now......so "winter's over" type posts are utterly irrelevant......by all means discuss all the model outputs, after all, this is what the thread is about, but don't take the predicted output as gospel, 'nailed on' etc etc, or you'll drive yourself mad!      (I used to, and look at state of me now.....barking mad!  )

Agreed. Lets not forget that the models and long range outputs this time last month were predicting a January that would be as zonal, mild and stormy as December was throughout with no chance of any pattern change whatsoever and in the end we managed a 10 day anticyclonic cold spell which none of the models or long range forecasts were initially picking up and a decent length period of weather with no storms. So you never know what could happen with regards to long range forecasts and the eventual weather.

Edited February 3, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[blizzard81]

Quite a wintry looking ecm op run tonight and we don't have to wait until days 9 and 10. I feel a tad excited about next week.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Quite a wintry looking ecm op run tonight and we don't have to wait until days 9 and 10. I feel a tad excited about next week.

Agreed

Certainly offers you and me and others in our regions the best hope so far IMHO- no freeze but potential for one or two events, and ecm has certainly backed away from its dreadful 00z run.

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Quite a wintry looking ecm op run tonight and we don't have to wait until days 9 and 10. I feel a tad excited about next week.

I know snow isn't just about the 850s, but they don't look particularly good throughout this run unless you live high up a hill and the precipitation falls at night.

Still, given the awful Winter for cold, anything will do.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Ah - to clarify, our discussion on strat thread was re the final part of Feb, not the upcoming medium range.

Thanks as always Ian for keeping us abreast with the models we cannot see. From an amateur's perspective, this little period of forecasting has been extremely informative for me, and my conclusion is that the gap between the Met Office/AAM/GWO/MJO experts and us amateur forecasters is not like Man City and Colchester City, but more like Man City and Leicester City. The Met are clearly a step ahead of us, but not that far ahead of us. I've been following all of Ian's posts this winter, and the Glossea model on the METO, and whilst the prognosis in the 7-14 day period has been very useful, the long-term picture has clearly not been much better than what the Netweather forecasters are capable of here. 

Since November, Glossea have consistently forecasted an increasing cold pattern after the new year - it has not happened. Many others who look into long-range signals have forecasted cold and gone wrong. The only thread I feel has not given false hope is the Strat thread, and Chino - he has made it clear all winter that an SSW was a strong possibility, but it would only be useful if it occurred in the right way. Chino has been absolutely spot-on with that.

On the flip-side, we have had one marginally good cold spell this winter - in the middle of January. I didn't see any long-term posters pick that up a month before - but a few of us on here saw the potential right back to the new-year period, when we realised the warm shot into the Arctic had to cause a break-out of cold of some sort, and gradually we saw heights push out in the direction of Greenland even 15 days before anything cold happened in the UK. I don't think anyone with access to more expensive models than us on here beat us to it.

I appreciate the METO have done well in the last couple of years (and that they got the first five weeks of this winter more or less right) - but that was on a mild UK pattern. I think the real test comes with getting cold UK patterns right, as they are ten times harder to nail, surely.

So the modelling so far this winter has left me with a couple of conclusions. 1. Don't be too in awe of those with extra information and knowledge. It gets them a bit further - and of course we should listen to them carefully - but they haven't got a magic weather forecasting app that we don't have. And 2. Don't get too drawn in by forecasts going beyond 14 days. Changes in patterns are constantly popping up out of the blue. I can think of so so many major weather events in recent years than had no forewarning outside of 14 days.

And so that brings me to the good news - there's still hope for the second half of February, because no-one can too confidently predict that there won't be the weather type that you want - whether that's early spring or Siberia!

Happy model watching everyone!

Edited February 3, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Ali1977]

Ref the METO long range not looking as good anymore, I'm guessing this is subject to change due to the SSW next week - can't imagine that's an easy forecasting period after one of those!!

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed

Certainly offers you and me and others in our regions the best hope so far IMHO- no freeze but potential for one or two events, and ecm has certainly backed away from its dreadful 00z run.

Yeah, northern england looks to be the place to be - hopefully lol. You are much higher up than me so you look to be in a prime location