Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[NorthernRab]

The storm next weekend is certainly something to keep an eye on (as it could be damaging as seen in the latest outputs), but pressure rises to our north and WAA towards Iceland and Greenland is also showing it's hand so maybe something for everyone

Edited February 2, 2016 by Paul
Removed quote and first bit as the posts have been moved to the chat thread

[Man With Beard]

I see some people flagging up the storm at weekend - now I avidly followed the 2013/14 storms and in honesty I don't see the coming storms being at that level - sure, the odd GFS run might scare us but most likely scenario to me is coasts up to 70mph gusts, maybe the odd 80mph, 60mph inland - that's not in the same league as the Scottish storms of the past few days and not enough for widespread damage.

No, the real emerging story this month, to me, is the title of warmest ever winter. With the mid-month northerly already seriously in question (going by GEFS and ECM ensembles), its looking more and more likely. I 100% concur with Mucka's comment on model preferences above and - dare I say - this warm winter may actually be one or two people's dream winter

[SxK]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I see some people flagging up the storm at weekend - now I avidly followed the 2013/14 storms and in honesty I don't see the coming storms being at that level - sure, the odd GFS run might scare us but most likely scenario to me is coasts up to 70mph gusts, maybe the odd 80mph, 60mph inland - that's not in the same league as the Scottish storms of the past few days and not enough for widespread damage.

This could well be your Michael Fish moment.

Looks pretty bad to me. Gradient is far tighter on current GFS run and 90mph+ winds would result from the gradient across areas of Western England. There will be widespread damage if that verifies as projected. Powercuts, roofs off, and potentially injuries or worse. 

[snowfish1]

3 hours ago, Timmytour said:

Given that it concerns the weather that we don't really want and not the cold and snow so many of us do want......I'd say the chances are pretty high it hits us!

Couldn't have put it any better myself the gfs shows a very strong  jet stream so of course we're gonna get it it's Sod's law ...

[Ali1977]

P13 is beautiful for cold, no support though but nice to see a chart like this in the ensembles finally.

[Daniel*]

Both GFS & UKMO develop a shortwave out in mid Atlantic GFS 'zipping' it through the English Channel and I suspect the UKMO would do the same implying a snow risk for the S.

[Mucka]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

P13 is beautiful for cold, no support though but nice to see a chart like this in the ensembles finally.

Yes but very much an outlier as you say.

If anything the ensembles have moved away from the idea of any MLB so it is case of coldies putting their faith in the MetO for now or just looking for the colder PM shots.

Not all doom and gloom for those up North but for those in the South there is very little Wintry weather on offer.

At least regardless of any blocking the run up to mid Feb period looks like it will deliver the colder PM shots and even the South will have a chance of seeing snow falling on a given day. 

Edited February 2, 2016 by Mucka

[mb018538]

12z delivers nothing of note again...on to the next day for another crumb to cling on to. Wet and windy very much the order of the day.

[weirpig]

very disturbed ecm  across the bulk of britain

[TomDav]

Will be interesting to see if this short-lived easterly in FI on the 12z GFS returns in subsequent runs

[Ali1977]

19 minutes ago, weirpig said:

very disturbed ecm  across the bulk of britain

Yes, this looks particularly windy, and what is different than the majority of this winter is that it effects the South rather than North. This looks to co-inside with Monday's rush Hour so could be tricky to say the least - especially vulnerable places like the Severn Bridge !!!

[TomDav]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Hope not, that's useless for most, not cold

Still a long way out.. 850's can be higher to support snow if the air is sourced from the continent

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Hope not, that's useless for most, not cold

Ian F did mention some anticyclonic possibilities later in Feb, not sure when within that period. Let's hopes he's right and we can get a good beast going before the days lengthen too much....Can't imagine the North Sea is too cold so if this did occur the potential for showers increases!!!! Still, I see no sign on current models till mid month - apart from P13 on GEFS as mentioned earlier!!

[andymusic]

41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

12z delivers nothing of note again...on to the next day for another crumb to cling on to. Wet and windy very much the order of the day.

windy and blizzardy in wales if that storm comes off sunday/monday next week and both gfs and ecm are showing it

[blizzard81]

Well, I quite liked the 00z ecm op this morning but two really bad things happened afterwards. First the ecm 00z ensembles and then tonight's ecm 12z. I am already turning my thoughts to next winter to be honest.

[Carlrg]

ECM's and UKMO's take on things for next Monday. The isobars not quite as squeezed on the UK's and may still moderate.

Has been pretty rough up here the last week or so regarding the wind. The lads and lass's in Scotland must have had it really bad.

[weirpig]

22 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes, this looks particularly windy, and what is different than the majority of this winter is that it effects the South rather than North. This looks to co-inside with Monday's rush Hour so could be tricky to say the least - especially vulnerable places like the Severn Bridge !!!

is there anyway of seeing the wind speeds on the ecm?

[shotski]

6 minutes ago, Carlrg said:

ECM's and UKMO's take on things for next Monday. The isobars not quite as squeezed on the UK's and may still moderate.

Has been pretty rough up here the last week or so regarding the wind. The lads and lass's in Scotland must have had it really bad.

I'm quite happy about the current output with regards looking for colder conditions. The jet stream is slowly but surely heading south and each storm is tracking a little lower. I would expect to see some decent ML Ridging in the next couple of days, from there who knows. 

Edited February 2, 2016 by shotski

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

is there anyway of seeing the wind speeds on the ecm?

I can see them. The entire southern half of Britain pretty much has gusts of 60-70mph. Could be pretty disruptive.

Ah didn't realise they were freely available!

Edited February 2, 2016 by Nick L

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

is there anyway of seeing the wind speeds on the ecm?

Yes,here buddy

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=4&map=3&type=0&archive=0

 

Edited February 2, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[weirpig]

Thanks  nick and si   certainly does look quite nasty.   up north it would be just a breeze i expect   but that would be quite substancial here

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z at T+240 shows a brief Arctic shot with snow showers across exposed parts of the north and east before an atlantic ridge starts to pushin with widespread frosts...much better than the 12z ending yesterday!

[Carlrg]

Is there any general rule of thumb to converting 850's to surface windspeeds?

 

 

[TomDav]

29 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I can see them. The entire southern half of Britain pretty much has gusts of 60-70mph. Could be pretty disruptive.

Ah didn't realise they were freely available!

Only 850mb wind speed is available for free

[Man With Beard]

2 hours ago, SxK said:

This could well be your Michael Fish moment.

Looks pretty bad to me. Gradient is far tighter on current GFS run and 90mph+ winds would result from the gradient across areas of Western England. There will be widespread damage if that verifies as projected. Powercuts, roofs off, and potentially injuries or worse. 

Michael Fish moment - fantastic! I almost wish I'm wrong just for the that!

No I still don't see it - GFS and now ECM, and in fact all other models disagree on timing and shape of that storm - I think history tells us that a storm headed for central UK at T144 more often than not end up more NW by T0. Maybe a 10%-20% chance of severe storm over highly populated areas.

Edit: OK I have just seen UKMO - similar to ECM. Also I note lack of heights to the east so nothing to hold the low back. I'll up my odds to 20-30% of severe winds (which I qualify as 75mph  plus gusts at inland locations)

Edited February 2, 2016 by Man With Beard