Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[NL]

Shannon entropy is key here. February can deliver epic snowfall, not that the models are showing this, but the atmosphere is so volatile at the moment anything is possible..

Edited February 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[MR EXTREMES]

As u all well know I threw the towel in sometime ago as the El Niño very much mirrored 97/98 El Niño so certainly no surprise to see the declining El Niño still forcing the on going pattern.

the general west northwest and southwest flow looks to continue for some time yet and I'd think the disappointment and frustration is clear to see in here.

i think winter is dead cert it's over here in the south absolutely convinced on that the polar vortex coupled with the powerful jet stream plus atmospheric feedback from Nino is dominating and likely to into spring.

id also go as far as to say spring to be with us early this going against what I thought the feedback would do without a true clean split of the polar vortex and a half hearted relocated vortex the residual Canadian part is not going nowhere.

this winter has followed the trend of recent winters including the garden path model runs.

as for the strat event it's very much a feeble attempt at a very powerful vortex very little effect the classic winters where certainly not during years with such a large amount against us.

piece together the jigsaw of 09/10 winter and if this mirrored the current winter then I'd expect people to be a little excited.

its been and will continue to be a pretty rubbish winter which was expected by many well established forecasting agencies especially for the uk.

warm pacific waters cold Atlantic waters strong vortex powerful jet fairly active solar output.

and all the models suggest continued Atlantic domination with polar air being the coldest conditions to look forward to but only really effecting the nw north perhaps midlands north at times but no sustained cold.

looking forward to warm spring and hot summer and well done knocker for your contributions on this forum shame not to see your balanced post in here.

one thing to note is the strat warming does not always win but would have if there was a early start with relentless wave activity and a weaker vortex to start with.

im done for this winter if any northern blocking shows with in a realistic time frame I'd be happy to take criticism but until then winter is done especially for more southern southeastern and southwestern areas.

[SxK]

I think everyone needs to be a bit patient with respect to February as there is nothing on the horizon to flip the models to sustained cold in the next 2 weeks. However if you look beyond that then the MJO is just starting to click into gear and by month end the ECM ensembles have the MJO in phases 7/8. This is outside the range of our typical models so they are not going to be picking up the NH trop reaction to this yet but the composite for phase 8 looks is below. Not bad hey?

I reckon a week/10 days down the line we might start to see some more favourable modelling for a more sustained cold outbreak end of Feb into early March.

I thought Fergie's post this morning re: Glosea was very interesting, we'll just have to wait to see how it all pans out but do not give up just yet...    

[Rocheydub]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Lots of towels being chucked in the moaning thread but the Gfs 6z shows a higher chance of snow, at least for the north of the uk in FI...Better than the 00z

I see nothing of note apart from a few transient PM shots, which is only good for high ground up north!

Edited February 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Polar Maritime]

5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I see nothing of note apart from a few transient PM shots, which is only good for high ground up north!

Which is exactly what Frosty's charts/post depicts.

[Polar Maritime]

More posts have had to be hidden, Again i ask. . Can we keep to polite discussion around the Model outputs in here. 

[london and south east kent]

hi all this high pressure could push north later on with cold anticyclonic weather pattern later on im not throwing in the towel in yet I live in London and I have seen snow on the ground with cold easterlys in april still got time for a big dumping ..

Edited February 1, 2016 by london and south east kent

[wishingforsnow]

At least changes in the weather pattern during February will mean a weakened PV and jetstream meaning eventually the depressions won't be firing at us constantly from the Atlantic as they have done for most of this winter. This should in theory provide a greater chance of sustained blocked drier conditions even if its not particularly cold - I think this is what Ian F was alluding to in his update where 'a mobile southwesterly flow may resume temporarily,' the state of the atmosphere by then should ensure that this time it won't be a prolonged weather pattern should it return as opposed to further back during winter.

I know this winter is frustrating for coldies but many of us are probably looking forward to the pattern change from constant stormy wet windy conditions we have endured for months finally arriving. And the days are getting longer 

Edited February 1, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Frosty.]

There is talk of snow this coming weekend across the northern half of the UK from the latest met office update, especially later on Saturday and through Sunday and it could occur on lower ground as well as hills so it's one to watch...The Gfs 6z also shows some snow for the north during the timeframe in question both from showers and more organised ppn from frontal systems working NE across northern England and particularly for Scotland. Looking further ahead it looks like staying generally unsettled with some large variations in temperatures as Atlantic systems push through bringing milder, wet and windy spells interspersed with much brighter but colder and showery conditions with snow in places and night frosts.

[phil nw.]

More off topic posts have been hidden.

Please direct any frustrations with the Winter so far to the moans and banter thread.They serve no useful purpose in here and they just clutter the thread up.

Thanks all.  

[cheshire snow]

Dare I post this....

GFS 12Z Shows wintry weather as far south as the South Midlands at T162 (FI) Which is better than the GFS06Z Showed

C.S

[Mucka]

GFS finally smelling the coffee?

We should hopefully see gradual improvements over coming runs on this theme.

 

 

Should be some nice ensemble members this evening and day 9/10 on ECM will hopefully progress toward building an Atlantic ridge.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

Yes a more Southerly track the the Jet on this evenings run for the 8th, With cooler air spilling in from the N/W, Pushing the snow-line/cooler air a touch further South. 

 

Also a possibility of some severe weather across England next weekend.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

GEM gains the WAA toward Greenland but loses the upstream amplification

 

Even though we aren't seeing the charts we want as yet developments do signal some WAA toward Greenland around day 8 which could well link with arctic heights and renewed WAA in the Atlantic sector through day 9 and 10.

I think we will see this modeled in some of the ensembles and GFS Op is ever so slowly creeping toward a slower pattern even though the Op is still defiantly zonal.

 

Edited February 1, 2016 by Mucka

[cheshire snow]

Northerly at the end of the run,which takes us to 15 Febuary,now then did Ian F not mention this a few days ago as a possibility?

C.S

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Northerly at the end of the run,which takes us to 15 Febuary,now then did Ian F not mention this a few days ago as a possibility?

C.S

No northerly on 12z.

[Geordiesnow]

27 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS finally smelling the coffee?

We should hopefully see gradual improvements over coming runs on this theme.

 

 

Should be some nice ensemble members this evening and day 9/10 on ECM will hopefully progress toward building an Atlantic ridge.

Its always seem to be days 8-10 though from what i read on here, the reality is unfortunately there is no real prospects of snow opportunities in the outputs and unfortunately also with a strengthening sun even upper air temps of -5 would deliver to bring much in the way of cold weather, warm SST's don't help. 

There is more chance of another deep area of low pressure hitting the UK than any snowfall at the moment. 

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM gains the WAA toward Greenland but loses the upstream amplification

 

Even though we aren't seeing the charts we want as yet developments do signal some WAA toward Greenland around day 8 which could well link with arctic heights and renewed WAA in the Atlantic sector through day 9 and 

 

I'm struggling to see any WAA at 500 hpa on that chart Mucka. Indeed, it is the lack of WAA which allows the next bowl shaped low to come barrelling threw. 

[Timmytour]

just a thought....but  today it appears the Karymsky volcano in Russian Kamchatka's eastern volcanic zone spewed ash up to 3km into the air, according to the Regional Emergencies Ministry. That's not the first bit of volcanic activity in that region this winter.

It is possible such eruptions have a major direct on what is thereafter modelled.  Is there any correlation between all the models seeming to suddenly change tack within a relatively short time-frame from showing one thing to another, (obviously within a small region but evolving to have bigger consequences down the line)  and things such as volcanic explosions?  

[mulzy]

This is the most galling chart you will see today!

 

Deep cold only in northern Scandinavia and way out east in Siberia.

[phil nw.]

The ens have been showing a colder trend in the second week and the GFS run is still indicating the southward movement of the jet with low pressure digging se into Europe.

Still quite cyclonic and unsettled but the cold being felt further south after this week if that trend continues.Too early for detail re.any widespread snow but i would't write it off at this stage.With the lows crossing the Atlantic on a more southerly track we may get a surprise wintery event with the cold air more dominant around the UK by then.

Of course if we see a little more Atlantic ridging then this would greatly enhance any Arctic feed south.

Edited February 1, 2016 by phil nw.

[gottolovethisweather]

In the reliable, it is a case of depression, brief ridge, depression, brief ridge and so on and so on. 

After the usual weekend wobbles in the models, according to the GFS 12z some transient back-edge snow opportunities might yet turn up even for parts of lowland England in the coming fortnight. Early hours of the 3rd February could boast a wintry surprise for a small minority of us, plus I'd put a brief watch on things around the 8th and 9th February as well. Deep entrenched prolonged cold still not in sight but mid-February can and often does deliver even down south at times, despite these globally warmer times. I remain convinced that February will deliver what coldies want for more of the population than the rest of Winter has so far. Keep an eye on those Euro heights and Arctic heights, one of which we want to see dissipate the other we want to see build to unimaginable heights. An intriguing week of model watching coming up! 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[SLEETY]

14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is the most galling chart you will see today!

 

Deep cold only in northern Scandinavia and way out east in Siberia.

look how mild it is in europe,and not that cold in far  E europe or  Scandi,ive seen temps below -40 at this time of year there,before

[gottolovethisweather]

34 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

unfortunately also with a strengthening sun even upper air temps of -5 would deliver to bring much in the way of cold weather, warm SST's don't help. 

March 2013 saw twenty foot blizzards in parts and that Spring took an age to hit even respectable Temperatures, frosts occurring in almost June back then. So no, I don't buy that analogy but fair enough if you believe in such things. Every year is different though and who knows what might happen yet. 

Edited February 1, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[mulzy]

41 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

March 2013 saw twenty foot blizzards in parts and that Spring took an age to hit even respectable Temperatures, frosts occurring in almost June then. So no, I don't buy that analogy but fair enough if you believe in such things. Every year is different though and who knows what might happen yet. 

Of course March can be cold - no-one is denying that.  However with Europe so mild now (see chart above), it would require some rapid deep cold-pooling to establish itself during February as the cold has been wiped out across Europe.  I believe March 2013 followed a cold winter in the UK and Europe (can someone confirm please?) - this is obviously not the case this year.  Not saying March 2016 will not be cold but the barriers to achieve that are so much higher...

Edited February 1, 2016 by mulzy