Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[bluearmy]

the runner on ECM at day 7/8 runs right along the south coast. Sadly the air into which it heads is not cold enough and only snowfall showing on s Welsh mountains and South Downs (and not much of that either)

shame as you couldn't ask for it to be better placed re its track.  anyway, it won't verify like that as we all know so I guess it isn't a shame.  The shame is that the run illustrates that up to this timescale, the air across the s of the UK will not be cold enough to produce any proper snowfall.  now to the post feb 10 timescale to see if the ops are picking up on spoilers to the predicted macroscale pattern. 

Edited February 1, 2016 by bluearmy

[Man With Beard]

This morning's ECM, for me, is a bit of a defining moment. There had existed the chance, for about 72 hours, for a weak ridge to develop, just about good enough to bring a northerly element into play, and for a pattern to emerge throwing lows ever further to our south. However this morning, I see stronger ridging into Iberia between T168 and T216 - story of the winter, really. This stops low pressure ever setting up far enough to the south for that northerly element to dominate. I'd be surprised to see a return to the colder ideas now. Instead, we're faced with lots of rain and wind, again, and a few snowflakes for Scotland/N Ireland from time to time

[Chris1986]

ECM seems to be following the GFS with the low heading towards europe , I do see the ecm not having a low to the south of greenland though which should hopefully allow a greater amount of cold air in across the uk, that is if the low follows A similar evolution to the gfs. 

[cheeky_monkey]

early spring on the cards if the latter part of the GFS were to be believed very much Feb 1990 & 1998 esq.

[Chris1986]

2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

early spring on the cards if the latter part of the GFS were to be believed very much Feb 1990 & 1998 esq.

Jet stream riding very  much to the north at the end of the run throwing a deep low to the north of sweden. Any change in the track would be good news. Let's see what the next few runs say  

[bluearmy]

Fellas - operational charts at that range are merely to fill band width and nothing else. My four year old could probably draw a chart with a better verification stat! 

[Frosty.]

In the very short term it's all about Storm Henry, at least for folk in northern britain  because Scotland in particular is going to feel it's power later today and tonight with gusts between 70-90 mph and locally higher, especially across the mountains. Looking ahead, it stays unsettled with temperatures close to average but it wouldn't take much of a change upstream to get at least a brief snowy northerly as the Gfs 18z showed last night.

[mountain shadow]

33 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

Jet stream riding very  much to the north at the end of the run throwing a deep low to the north of sweden. Any change in the track would be good news. Let's see what the next few runs say  

This does seem plausible.

With a large jet streak existing the US due to the deep cold and with the continued failure of the teleconnections and strat warming to assist with any Atlantic application then lows going to the North of the UK is probable. 

[Purga]

Op runs this morning are pretty dire for cold lovers away from the north & higher ground with the main theme being wind and rain in abundance!

The ECM mean hints at a bit more of interest towards D9/10

GEFS illustrate the same with some colder runs towards the end

Overall not much cheer really.

[johnholmes]

for what it is worth-not sure how they are shaping up as been away 2 weeks, the anomaly charts show this upper air pattern

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

They appear, at first glance, to show the idea of a touch colder and and still fairly unsettled weather to me, but I need a few days to get a better feel for them. Watched them while away but not got any to see how they have moved over the past 6-7 days.

 

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

early spring on the cards if the latter part of the GFS were to be believed very much Feb 1990 & 1998 esq.

Not convinced. The latest GloSea5 output - whilst still leaning (slightly more) towards a return to westerly mobility after the colder phase into mid-month - indicates this may well prove only temporary. The tentative outlook now preferred (based on yesterday's GloSea5) is for colder anticyclonic weather to then build later February (aligned with MJO phasing) and UKMO expecting -ve NAO. 

AMENDED: UKMO lean more to the mobility returning; whereas GloSea5 is actually less cyclonic into week 3. Issue here is longevity of ridging to west. Either way, Shannon Entropy derived from EC-EPS starts exhibiting increasingly low predictability after the 6-10d period.

Edited February 1, 2016 by fergieweather

[Ali1977]

I wouldn't take any FI charts as gospel, a proper SSW (+8c) occurs next week so I'd expect to see some big swings in weather  towards mid month in the NH. Supposedly +8c is an extremely strong SSW.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Ali1977

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Not convinced. The latest GloSea5 output - whilst still leaning (slightly more) towards a return to westerly mobility after the colder phase into mid-month - indicates this may well prove only temporary. The tentative outlook now preferred (based on yesterday's GloSea5) is for colder anticyclonic weather to then build later February (aligned with MJO phasing) and UKMO expecting -ve NAO. 

Thanks Ian as ever. I think many of us will be very interested to see if the Met Office models can nail this, as though they have done very well recently in predicting milder spells in advance, it's a whole different ball game to predict colder spells so far ahead, particularly as other model output that we can see currently would not lead us to such a conclusion! If Glossea5/Mogrep/decider can nail these colder spells for February - which you have been emphasising for some weeks now - then I think all on here will develop a new respect for them.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY FEB 1ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   Storm Henry will move East to the North of Scotland over the next 24-36 hours pushing another spell of storm force Westerly winds across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England tonight and tomorrow with a showery airflow replacing the mild and damp weather behind a cold front moving SE today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 10000ft across Southern England before falling behind a cold front later to around 4000ft for most parts by tomorrow. Snow showers and blizzards will return to the Scottish mountains tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains very strong across the Atlantic over the coming two weeks. The flow currently blowing East across the UK troughs further South later this week and next before ridging North later next week and then settling NW of the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a new month but pretty much a similar picture over the next few weeks with Low pressure largely ruling the airflows across the UK with Westerly gales and spells of rain and showers, which turn wintry at times as colder air feeds in. Through next week Low pressure crosses on more Southerly latitudes for a time with heavy rain or wintry showers almost anywhere before High pressure finally is shown to build in at the end of the second week with dry and frosty weather before a milder SW flow with some rain feeds back into NW Britain at the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run broadly follows that of the Operational with wet and wild the theme of much of the weather expected over the next couple of weeks. High pressure also builds in later on through the second week on this run too with cold and frosty weather following a day or two of wintry showers with the far NW only seeing rain then by the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show a very similar pattern at day 14 today with winds from a Westerly source with High pressure down to the SW and Low pressure up to the NW of the UK in various guises delivering rain and showers at times to all parts of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows westerly winds through the working days of this week with rain at times in very strong winds. Though cooler at times some milder spells are still likely across the South. Through the weekend Low pressure will enhance further with cyclonic winds across the UK with further rain at times or heavy thundery showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today continue to show changeable conditions as various warm and cold fronts pass over throughou this week with mild and damp periods alternating with cooler and brighter if windy weather with a sunshine and shower mix with snow on hills of the North

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning offers no relief either from the wild weather of late with further spells of rain and gales and wintry showers in between. Later in the run the model continues to portray deep Low pressure even closer to or across the UK with further strong winds, rain and showers with snow on hills across the UK..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows no changes either to the unsettled and windy theme as further Low pressure areas dominate the UK with spells of wind and rain mixed with colder brighter weather with showers, wintry and thundery in places later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very much the same in theme as it has for days now with Low pressure streaming across the Atlantic on a collision course with the UK delivering spells of rain followed by more showery spells when some snow can be expected across the hills of the North. Before that happens though this week sees a lot of strong Westerly winds with alternating mild/colder periods with damp weather replaced by a spell of colder and more showery weather tomorrow and Wednesday before the mild air returns NE later in the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for many members showing a Low pressure based pattern across the UK at Day 10 with Low pressure close to the North or over the North with little sign of either cold or settled weather across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and Low pressure based conditions remaining for the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.0 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 88.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.3 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.5 pts to 48.0 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   After a few days off from the model world I though I might return this morning and fine the weekend has delivered some longer term changes in the pattern of synoptics across the UK but alas no is the answer to that one as all models continue to paint a very volatile Jet stream and resultant Low pressure close to or across the UK for much of the upcoming two weeks. For the working part of this week Westerly winds remain strong with severe gales in association with Henry over the next 36 hours across the North. The current mild and damp conditions in the South should dissolve for a day or two as colder showery air moves South later today and last through into Wednesday with some snow on Northern hills. Then by Thursday another large warm sector moves up across the UK from the SW returning mild, damp or even wet conditions later in the week. Then from the weekend on all models still show Low pressure areas taking a much more Southerly route across the UK than of late with gales and wet weather in equal measure almost anywhere and while no cold weather looks likely some snow is expected over the higher ground on occasion with the incidence of some very heavy and thunder showers almost anywhere very likely between the rain-bands next week. The only faint light on the horizon is offered by GFS this morning which in it's latter stages shows High pressure making a welcome return to our shores with a temporary spell at least of clearer and colder frosty weather right at the end of the forecast period. So there you have it not much else to say about the output this morning with Winter remaining elusive by it's absence in the real world this morning if it's widespread cold and snowfall you seek.       

Next Update Tuesday February 2nd 2016 from 09:00 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

early spring on the cards if the latter part of the GFS were to be believed very much Feb 1990 & 1998 esq.

theres no support from the noaa 500mb charts for an early spring nor a decent cold spell, although frostys highlighted charts are possible, likely even, they are only brief affairs (some might say 'better then nothing'). to me it looks like remaining unsettled and mobile but average - cool with milder days becoming fewer. not quite an early feb 83 style northwesterly, but not far off.
signs that the upper pattern shifts eastwards? so maybe more colder pm incursions? but nothing settled and not really mild.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

In the very short term it's all about Storm Henry, at least for folk in northern britain  because Scotland in particular is going to feel it's power later today and tonight with gusts between 70-90 mph and locally higher, especially across the mountains. Looking ahead, it stays unsettled with temperatures close to average but it wouldn't take much of a change upstream to get at least a brief snowy northerly as the Gfs 18z showed last night.

Would that be snowy though, Frost? The number of isobars seems to halve overnight with the uppers cold enough for snow arriving when an instability has likely been switched off. Cold and frosty certainly, but maybe just a northern event if it turns out as shown.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Would that be snowy though, Frost? The number of isobars seems to halve overnight with the uppers cold enough for snow arriving when an instability has likely been switched off. Cold and frosty certainly, but maybe just a northern event if it turns out as shown.

No MP-R I said if we get something like the Gfs 18z last night which showed a brief snowy Northerly shot, the 00z shows a cold, frosty snap, as you say.

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

No MP-R I said if we get something like the Gfs 18z last night which showed a brief snowy Northerly shot, the 00z shows a cold, frosty snap, as you say.

So you did, that'll teach me to rush read. Fingers crossed for upgrades. A nice undercut of cold air with precipitation on the scene would go down very nicely - something like 19th Dec 2004 or 23rd Jan 2005. 

[Chris1986]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

I wouldn't take any FI charts as gospel, a proper SSW (+8c) occurs next week so I'd expect to see some big swings in weather  towards mid month in the NH. Supposedly +8c is an extremely strong SSW.

Unfortunately we are not yet seeing a reversal of the zonal mean 60n 10 hpa winds... yet... 1 hpa winds are due to go negative however according to ecm so not a technical SSW but we will have to see what develops.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

I wouldn't take any FI charts as gospel, a proper SSW (+8c) occurs next week so I'd expect to see some big swings in weather  towards mid month in the NH. Supposedly +8c is an extremely strong SSW.

As Recretos has explained on the Strat if I'm following it correctly is that the trop PV is mirroring the Strat PV,  therefore all the minor warming is doing is sending the trop PV to the North Atlantic.

Therefore there  is zero chance of a proper high latitude block whilst the PV is forecast there.  The odd transient ridge maybe but that's it.

[Frosty.]

Lots of towels being chucked in the moaning thread but the Gfs 6z shows a higher chance of snow, at least for the north of the uk in FI...Better than the 00z

[mushymanrob]

44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lots of towels being chucked in the moaning thread but the Gfs 6z shows a higher chance of snow, at least for the north of the uk in FI...Better than the 00z

looks pretty normal to me mate, if all there is to be seen cold wise is a few hours for the north it may as well be mild... you know me, its all or nothing, a decent blizzard or a bartlett.

[Man With Beard]

The ECM ensembles (below) and GFS 06Z provide half a chance for cold between 10/14 February

GFS 'simply' needs Atlantic low to phase with Scandi low at D9 and the northerly will follow

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

or a bartlett.

How did that b word get past the swear filter..LOL

Well mushy I'm just calling it as I see it mate and at least with a generally nw / se aligned jet we have a chance of a cold shot but we really need the jet to slow down and allow any colder outbreaks more time to deliver...I'm not giving up yet!

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts have been hidden, Let's please keep it friendly and on topic, Thanks.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Polar Maritime