Storm Henry

[knocker]

Yes the ecm is looking at 70-80kts gusts. Not good.

[heccygabber]

About time we had a real storm in the central belt

[shuggee]

Last week's 91mph on the Forth Road Bridge was getting there Heccy!

[BurntFishTrousers]

[Nick123]

Hey everyone. What do you reckon winds will be like for the North East? Expecting around 70mph... do you think itll be more?

[Nick123]

4 hours ago, -Bomber- said:

Further South on the lastest ARPEGE 

How reliable is this please?

[Glaswegianblizzard]

1 hour ago, shuggee said:

70-75mph+ across populated Scotland... Nasty.

 

 

Hundreds of trains cancelled already from tomorrow afternoon.

Anything along a route that hugs the Western coastline is being suspended from mid afternoon. West Highlands and North West Highlands suspended from lunchtime effectively. Surprisingly rest of Central Scotland retains a full service, where there were reductions made for Gertrude in case of damage or speed restrictions having to apply. 

 

If this is to be worse than Gertrude, then it's surprising that there's been a good bit less in the media about it. 

[Cookie]

on the verge of lockdown in the Western isles. 

[Abyss]

21 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

How reliable is this please?

Pretty decent, think it's a spin off from the ECM. Nothing Scientific to back it up with tho ha

[Nick123]

1 minute ago, -Bomber- said:

Pretty decent, think it's a spin off from the ECM. Nothing Scientific to back it up with tho ha

Do you reckon we will get an amber in the north east then?

[Abyss]

2 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

Do you reckon we will get an amber in the north east then?

I have no clue. More knowledgeable folk on here are better placed to answer that than me ha. If it is upgraded to Amber it won't be until tomorrow morning that's when they usually update warnings

[Abyss]

[Nick123]

3 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

I have no clue. More knowledgeable folk on here are better placed to answer that than me ha. If it is upgraded to Amber it won't be until tomorrow morning that's when they usually update warnings

Thank you for replying

[weather09]

Does look like Henry will be worse than Gertrude in terms of coverage of intense winds - a good portion of Scotland lookin likely to see gusts to and exceeding 80mph - though unlikely the strongest winds will be as high as the latter where there were quite a few observations of gusts higher than 100mph.

 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, cookie said:

on the verge of lockdown in the Western isles. 

Surely you lot are accustomed to such high wind speeds? Not disputing the dangers, it seems more populated parts of Scotland are going to be hit hard such as Inverness, Aberdeen ect which may be the bigger story out of Storm Henry rather than usual bruising with Outer Hebrides taking the beating. 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Nick123 said:

Hey everyone. What do you reckon winds will be like for the North East? Expecting around 70mph... do you think itll be more?

Hi,

I'm sure you will have a yellow wind warning.

Top gusts in the North East around the mid 60's going by latest data not that bad this may change so stay tuned.

[Liam J]

Minor adjustment southwards on the 18z with the core of strongest winds.

 

18z  12z 

[stevofunnelcl]

Met Office say to expect updates to the warnings during Monday

Any upward shift in the expected wind speeds, could be looking at another red warning as a possibility

[Love Snow]

Already starting to get gusty here in Leeds and it's not from the Sunday dinner

[Nouska]

A nice water vapour animation of the early development of Henry.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/seviri/2016/01/31/seviri_eurnat_wv6-2.html

Last frame....       ..... which should update.

The ARPEGE charts up the page are some sort of time accumulated wind gust representation that will give a false impression - better just to use the regular gust one (Rafales 10m).

 

 

[Abyss]

3 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The ARPEGE charts up the page are some sort of time accumulated wind gust representation that will give a false impression - better just to use the regular gust one (Rafales 10m).

 

 

Yes for hour by hour but that shows the highest gust expected on x amount of time and shows the highest gust from the regular one

Edited January 31, 2016 by -Bomber-

[Nouska]

Just now, -Bomber- said:

Yes for hour by hour but that shows the highest gust expected on x amount of time

No, it runs that out to the end of the run eg 12Z at 114 shows this ...

Not anything like that at the time.

[Daniel*]

33 minutes ago, Nouska said:

A nice water vapour animation of the early development of Henry.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/myndir/seviri/2016/01/31/seviri_eurnat_wv6-2.html

Last frame....       ..... which should update.

The ARPEGE charts up the page are some sort of time accumulated wind gust representation that will give a false impression - better just to use the regular gust one (Rafales 10m).

 

 

Nice distinguishable polar low on that satellite imagery to NE of Faroe Islands. 

The national forecast had 90mph for the north of Scotland, 80mph through the central belt and 70mph gusts as far as Newcastle if my memory serves me right.

batten down the hatches.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Daniel*
Typo

[Abyss]

26 minutes ago, Nouska said:

No, it runs that out to the end of the run eg 12Z at 114 shows this ...

Not anything like that at the time.

You don't get it. It shows the max wind gust recorder over x amount of time. If it was max gust out to 72 hours it could be showing a gust from 24 hours out but of course 72 will look different in live time. Pretty basic. Plus its a different run now

Edited February 1, 2016 by -Bomber-

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

You don't get it. It shows the max wind gust recorder over x amount of time. If it was max gust out to 72 hours it could be showing a gust from 24 hours out but of course 72 will look different in live time. Pretty basic

Is there any need to use that tone?