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Storm Henry

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Storm Henry has been officially named

Amber and yellow warning are in force from the met office for strong winds and a yellow rain warning is also out

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1454284800

Storm Henry is the 2nd named storm of 2016 and the 8th since November

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I fear this could be worse then Gertrude 

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Storm seems weaker on the GFS? Usually the opposite

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Henry just off Newfoundland on 06z analysis (as mentioned in Met warning), developing under right-entrance of strong jet streak:

20160130.thumb.png.62cde75535f3d48cf13d4 jet.thumb.png.3667adf3a4289944d7bd39e693

Likely considerable changes ahead re. track/timing, though sound agreement at this stage on another period of severe winds for northern UK late Mon/Tue.

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Further downgrades on the 060z. At moment looking a lot weaker than Gertrude and normally gfs continues to downgrade. Certainly not going to effect us in Sunny Sheffield

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12 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Henry just off Newfoundland on 06z analysis (as mentioned in Met warning), developing under right-entrance of strong jet streak:

20160130.thumb.png.62cde75535f3d48cf13d4 jet.thumb.png.3667adf3a4289944d7bd39e693

Likely considerable changes ahead re. track/timing, though sound agreement at this stage on another period of severe winds for northern UK late Mon/Tue.

Looks like it will track further South than currently shown? 

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Timing has changed from the 00z with wind gusts close to 80mph coming into Western Scotland during the early hours of Tuesday. Probably some more adjustments to come as Weather09 mentioned. 

00z 3am Tuesday gfs69.thumb.png.05d44e972d02803a199779c4 6z 3am Tuesday gfs70.thumb.png.4dc73b4d14099ab6c39c4dab

Gust of 70mph+ for far north of Ireland & howling through the Central Lowlands, 60mph+ for N England.

gfs72.thumb.png.b963f26e3f5263e3e42a4045gfs73.thumb.png.1f4456a6ce907e8b05a5ba1e

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4 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Will this storm have much inpact on Yorkshire 

North Yorkshire yes  but very little for south Yorkshire North Yorkshire 60 mph south Yorkshire 50mph gusts.

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batten  down the hatches    monday  morning  could  be  interesting   to get about 

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Net-Wx take on tomorrows storm.

 

a.png

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Will say it again worried about this one.. 

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Irish Met warning for waves of up to 50ft along the West coast

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Exceptional wave heights, possibly reaching 12 to 15 meters, during Monday along Atlantic coasts.

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18 minutes ago, cookie said:

Will say it again worried about this one.. 

Yes cookie stay safe up there.

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1 hour ago, -Bomber- said:

Irish Met warning for waves of up to 50ft along the West coast

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Exceptional wave heights, possibly reaching 12 to 15 meters, during Monday along Atlantic coasts.

I can see why.. :help:

 

viewimage.thumb.png.81f5bbe1bc294f21ed8856ae1533f3920_viewimage(1).thumb.png.c4c

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21 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

Further South on the lastest ARPEGE 

arpegeuk-52-78-0.png?31-06

arpegeuk-52-72-0.png?31-13

Yeah its now not that far off the 'nightmare' showings it was a few days ago, thankfully the key difference is the really strong winds stay out at sea and by the time it makes land fall it drops significantly, instead of staying close to 200kph on land. Hopefully it plays out as now modelled, but even then that is still showing ~80 mph gusts for the Northern Pennines never mind Scotland.

 

Lot of ups and downs with this storm, models were showing it at near historic levels, then switched to being weaker than Gertrude and now its showing a kind of middle ground, as seems to be often the case with these storms.

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I hope everyone affected by Henry stays safe. Here in middle France we're just getting the gunk from Gertrude but it has been a horrid weekend.

I'm really hoping this chain of storms stops by mid-February. I'm bringing my English registered car back to the UK on the ferry (Caen to Portsmouth - the nice long overnight crossing!!!) and I really really really don't cope with rough seas! Those seas forecast for the west coast of Ireland look incredible. I have seen the Irish west coast in full fury and it is something to behold and respect.

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Looking at gust 70+ kts across the north of Scotland

gfs_mslp_uv10m_eur2_7.thumb.png.1c23656d

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Rockall, Malin, Hebrides, South Bailey

Cyclonic becoming southwesterly 7 to severe gale 9, increasing storm 10 or violent storm 11, perhaps hurricane force 12 later. Very rough or high, becoming very high, then phenomenal later. Rain or squally showers. Poor.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast-printable

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70-75mph+ across populated Scotland... Nasty.

 

Henry Midnight Mon-Tues.jpg

 

Hundreds of trains cancelled already from tomorrow afternoon.

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