Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Ravelin]

Risking showing my ignorance here, but in regards to "if the Eastern USA is cold we usually get stormy weather". Not sure of the timescales that were being talked about earlier but if we consider the period between t96-192, the USA seems to get a cold plunge on the models.

 

Normally that means the temperature contrast 'fires up the jetstream', which it does this time too (but not really as strongly as normal perhaps?) . That normally fires a succession of lows in our direction. 

The thing to look at though is the forecast for the jetstream though. At the start of the period it's over us, but by the end it's headed towards to our south, heading into France.  

Maybe for once this USA cold might help by encouraging the jetstream to pull any lows to our south bringing colder air in behind? 

Not as good as a block in the right place but we've got to take what crumbs we can. 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Risking showing my ignorance here, but in regards to "if the Eastern USA is cold we usually get stormy weather". Not sure of the timescales that were being talked about earlier but if we consider the period between t96-192, the USA seems to get a cold plunge on the models.

 

Normally that means the temperature contrast 'fires up the jetstream', which it does this time too (but not really as strongly as normal perhaps?) . That normally fires a succession of lows in our direction. 

The thing to look at though is the forecast for the jetstream though. At the start of the period it's over us, but by the end it's headed towards to our south, heading into France.  

Maybe for once this USA cold might help by encouraging the jetstream to pull any lows to our south bringing colder air in behind? 

Not as good as a block in the right place but we've got to take what crumbs we can. 

Yes, I can definitely see potential as we move towards the 2nd third of the month, and I think our crumbs could well have chocolate chips in them. 

Studying the gefs purbs for a few days now, and more and more of them beginning to show signs of lower heights getting into Europe with the Atlantic ridge stretching north. 

Im feeling encouraged,. Not disheartened about the upcoming opportunities. 

[TheBigFreeze]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Colder, as in relative to milder episodes (today becoming a case in point), with phases likely to fall slightly below average. As previously discussed, 'colder' should not be translated as 'very cold': quite different terminology! The 00z EC-ENS show the general shift towards chillier weather well (Reading shown, v model climatology).

Thank you for the reply Ian, I wasn't taking the comments as anything other than, colder than what we are currently experiencing, I was more intrigued by the word "longer" in the statement "a little colder for a little longer". Was the reference hinting at a possible pattern change that some of the meto models we are not privy to suggesting/showing [I'm not expecting anyone, yourself included to nail their colours to the mast] or was it in reference to increased PM shots as the lows barrel away to our NE allowing, however briefly, but more frequently the cold air to sink south?

 

Thanks Simon

[SMU]

The GFS at 192 - whilst over the UK isnt cold has a sharper orientation of the jet over the NE states - indicating probably better ridging -

it also has another snowstorm-

 

Edited January 31, 2016 by Steve Murr

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GFS at 192 - whilst over the UK isnt cold has a sharper orientation of the jet over the NE states - indicating probably better ridging -

 

Not sure I follow that. Better ridging where?

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not sure I follow that. Better ridging where?

The jet looks nearly straight northerly over the NE there knocker - kind of answer your own question.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Ali1977

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not sure I follow that. Better ridging where?

Atlantic but I guess you knew that......

[SMU]

Knocker in the atlantic

here at 228

it will serve to slow the jet down - 

also the -EPO ridge is looking more healthy on this run

S

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Think gfs is smelling a change hoping for a good FI as the high towards Iceland forces the jet south ..

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The jet looks nearly straight northerly over the NE there knocker - kind of answer your own question.

And then we move the whole set up east and it's all change so I'm struggling with the significance of all this.

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to show the Jet sink South into the run, With a slack Northerly flow and temps into single digit minima for around the 10th February. Plenty of interest into the new Month..

Edited January 31, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

And then we move the whole set up east and it's all change so I'm struggling with the significance of all this.

 

 

And it's all CHANGE. From what? There is the significance. Significant enough for meto to talk about it. Not prolonged but not without interest.

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Knocker in the atlantic

here at 228

it will serve to slow the jet down - 

also the -EPO ridge is looking more healthy on this run

S

 

 

Having just been looking at the ext ecm Steve the EPO ridge looks in exceptionally rude health.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Having just been looking at the ext ecm Steve the EPO ridge looks in exceptionally rude health.

I think steve was commenting on the GFS6z knocker.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

And it's all CHANGE. From what? There is the significance. Significant enough for meto to talk about it. Not prolonged but not without interest.

From four days previous and I fail to find any significance in a couple of charts from one run of the GFS and I doubt the METO would either.

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think steve was commenting on the GFS6z knocker.

I appreciate that nws but just thought I'd add an informative snippet. The jets still looking a bit dodgy.

Edited January 31, 2016 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Batten down the hatches for the Northern half of the UK tomorrow, Especially the N/W Highlands where gusts could well exceed 90+ mph.. Very dangerous conditions again for the Isles with warnings in place.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[TomDav]

Latest GFS runs showing a fair amount of blocking in FI with lows tracking tracking well southwards, although 850's not very cold.

[That ECM]

How to make the charts look Better!!

[Day 10]

Typical when we don't want the pattern further east it just barges through, then when we want it further east it just gets stuck over us!

My boat is ready, Northern Atlantic here I come

[Daniel*]

This polar low/ disturbance like feature continues to be shown for Wednesday moving southeastwards losing intensity as it does, note the warm core.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Daniel*

[phil nw.]

We can see some attempt at Atlantic ringing which will send some cold further south at times

It is still a very mobile pattern though with a very active jet so the coldest air will be short lived further south.Parts of the north, especially   Scotland, again best placed for snowfall.

A very unsettled sometimes stormy and often rather cold outlook by the looks of it.

[karlos1983]

NAVGEM always has been a favourite of mine 

 

Not scraping the barrel 

Edited January 31, 2016 by karlos1983

[phil nw.]

The latest temp graph

gradually trending down to a rather cold picture and these for London so up north lower again.

Just to confirm this a look at the gefs stamps and mean at day 10

no real upstream blocking ridge but the jet moving south and troughing angled se into Europe means for week 2 polar air becoming more dominant across the UK. 

 

 

[mulzy]

I've lost the MJO Analogue composites url.  Can someone remind me please?

Edited January 31, 2016 by mulzy