Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Liam J]

Wasn't expecting to see such an active & volatile looking Atlantic driven pattern again this winter, a very disturbed outlook into next week which could bring disruptive weather with some very wet and very windy weather on the cards. Renewed flooding a real possibility along with a risk of gales or severe gales at times. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Wasn't expecting to see such an active & volatile looking Atlantic driven pattern again this winter, a very disturbed outlook into next week which could bring disruptive weather with some very wet and very windy weather on the cards. Renewed flooding a real possibility along with a risk of gales or severe gales at times. 

Bit like groundhog day watching that gfs00z run, just wind and rain,wind and rain as the euro high/PV combo prevents anything other than glancing blows to the far north of pm air.

 

[winterof79]

Lets hope the displacement of the Vortex does not take this route

There is a massive change brewing for February and I expect more hints of Mid Feb cold from the METO before very long

 GFS ensembles starting to go in to "Head scrambled mode"

Some cracking Peturbs now raising their heads

Edit ECM and GEM now also showing the displacement comencing

 

 

Edited January 22, 2016 by winterof79

[winterof79]

6 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Very interesting model analysis by Simon Keeling. Remember, don't run away with the thought of December 2010 repeating itself after watching this. http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Nice to see Mr Keeling getting "mildly" excited.

[West is Best]

42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Bit like groundhog day watching that gfs00z run, just wind and rain,wind and rain as the euro high/PV combo prevents anything other than glancing blows to the far north of pm air.

 

Well it's fairly depressing to see this Atlantic conveyor belt, especially given that just a couple of days ago this outrageous piece of Ice Age flirtation showed up:

 

 

It wasn't even particularly long range. I suppose the positive to take from that is that it can just easily flip again.

 

 

[cyclonic happiness]

Remember, if all the charts aren't showing a snowmaggedon , there is probably a cold spell in the offing.

How is the reliability of the charts after the last 3 weeks debacle?  They are still flipping about I gather.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op at least shows occasional polar maritime incursions, especially brushing across the north with wintry ppn and night frosts at times which is better than constant mild...in my opinion

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z op also shows a very mobile pattern with some very mild days, especially sun/mon and wed but some cooler / colder days too, especially further north with occasional wintry ppn, particularly on northern hills. it's a changeable /unsettled outlook with bouts of wet and windy weather, the most unsettled conditions across the north with the best of any fine weather in the south. By the end of the run the jet looks to be digging further south which opens up wintry possibilities beyond T+240 hours.

Edited January 22, 2016 by Frosty.

[Day 10]

At first glance the charts look dreadful, however as you can see the vortex looks to be on the move with the main chunk heading toward Scandinavia. We may have to endure some less cold but fairly windy weather first before some more favourable charts begin to appear over the next few weeks (for cold that is).

If things land right Feb could be a good one! And let's all hope it is worth the wait...

COME ON WINTER AS DELIA SMITH WOULD SAY "WHERE ARE YOU"

Edited January 22, 2016 by Minus 10

[Ali1977]

It sounds like the professionals are forecasting a colder Feb not taking into account any SSW and rightly so as it isn't happening "yet". The NW flow they say may bring this colder weather, could well become N/NE/Eesterly if a SSW does occur or even if the PV shifts well over to the east as some models are now showing.

[Singularity]

As the very unstable air associated with the polar vortex traverses the Atlantic waters, the recipe is there for a raging westerly jet and some fairly deep storm systems. This results in a boundary being drawn across the UK along which a lot of rain is likely to fall.

The 00z GFS is unbelievably flat and I'm more inclined to trust the ECM run which allows the boundary to move north and south a bit over the week.

 

Longer term ECM continues to transfer the vortex to Scandinavia more convincingly than the GFS, but I see the GEFS are starting to catch on.

An adjustment upward by the GEFS and before long the phase 1/2 issue may be removed from the output. Bear in mind the above is an ensemble mean so there will be a range of outcomes. I suspect the 00z det. is among those heading furthest into 1/2. ECM might be close to the GEFS mean.

The suppression and move west of the Azores high toward the mid-Atlantic is indicated to be in 9 to 14 days time depending on which output you look at (inc. ens. and ignoring the ridiculous GFS lower-res). It would be helpful for the waterlogged areas up north if it could do so sooner so here's hoping we similar corrections in that regard to what we saw last winter prior to that cold spell late Jan into Feb.

 

So to summarise, I fear it's not going to be a cosy ride to the headline act of the winter with flooding again an issue for a fair few places. January down here is already the third wettest in the last two decades and the surface water is extensive even after mostly light spells of rain. This does, however, lead to some interesting - but potentially very dangerous - prospects should a significant cold spell arrive on the heels of this wet and wild regime.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 22ND 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  Troughs of Low pressure will move NE across the UK today clearing the East later with a ridge of High pressure under a mild SW flow reaching all areas today and lasting for much of tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will be around 8000ft today falling to closer to 6000ft for a time tomorrow. Snowfall is not expected except on the highest summits of Scotland in showers later.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild but some cooler spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow to blow across the UK in a North or Northeast direction over the weekend before moving West to east across the UK next week in a much stronger state before becoming more undulating in Week 2 but remaining in a West to East pattern at around 50-55 deg North.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Atlantic domination of the weather over the UK throughout the next few weeks between High pressure to the South and Low pressure rushing East to the North. The pressure gradient between this general pressure set-up steepens next week with gales or severe gales at times for all with some colder interludes across the North with wintry showers at times. Later in the second week it looks like less windy and unsettled weather develops as High pressure moves in closer to the South or SW with a spell of dry and fine weather with some night frosts for a time.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar to the above run today with a wet and wild period next week with some cooler interludes in the North with wintry showers mixed with mild and wet weather affecting all at times. The pattern eases somewhat in Week 2 with a North/South split developing again with a lot of dry, bright and sometimes mild weather in the South with spells of rain still in the North mixed with drier spells here too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are a very mixed bunch none of which shows anything particularly wintry for the UK with the bias towards High pressure to the SW or South with winds between SW and NW from all members and varying amounts of Atlantic Lows and depressions affecting the North almost certainly with a more mixed amount of affect for the South.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows West to SW winds next week, strong at times with spells of rain and gales or severe gales in exposure. Though technically mild for the most part some colder spells behind cold fronts could bring a few wintry showers across the hills of the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the milder conditions well with a SW feed of winds from the Azores wafting across the UK at the weekend with some moist air and fronts delivering some rain across the North and West before more appreciable wind and rain arrives early next week as a cold front moves slowly in from the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows unsettled and sometimes wet and windy weather across the UK through the next 10 days. Very mild conditions at first will ease back somewhat next week towards more average levels at the same time as Westerly gale or severe gales and rain followed by showers becomes the theme later on before an even further switch towards the NW might deliver rather chilly and blustery weather with more wintry showers towards the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a windy but broad mild West or SW flow across the UK across the next 7 days with rain and drizzle at times with some slightly colder more showery conditions across the far North and rather less wet and windy weather at times in the South where some very mild days look likely. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM today shows a very windy period of weather lasting the 10 days with some very mild weather in the first few days before temperatures slowly fall off next week to more average levels and maybe somewhat below average at times in the North towards the end of the period as the winds veer more towards a WNW direction at times. There will be various spells of rain throughout the period most prolific across the West and North with showers following, turning wintry over the hills especially in the North. Severe gales could also affect exposed locations especially later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is very supportive of a pattern highlighted by the Operational run with a very strong signal that Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South will be present across the UK 10 days from now with mild and occasionally wet weather in a strong westerly flow but with slow trend towards colder more showery conditions at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.1 pts to 66.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.9 pts to 46.4 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   Another morning of model observation which sees the Atlantic Ocean having complete domination across the UK over the next few weeks. All models show relentless winds from between SW and NW throughout the 15 days period with the main theme being the slow progression of winds slowly veering from a very mild SW direction early in the period towards a more westerly or even West North-westerly direction later on. There also seems a lot of support for relentless High pressure to remain down over Spain and the Azores with a strengthening of the gradient of pressure across the UK giving rise to gales or severe gales at times next week. As winds swing westerly briefly behind cold fronts some colder air will sweep across the North at times at least with some wintry showers likely over the hills and with time this risk looks like it could come all the way down into the South too as the Low pressure areas focus further East to the North of Scotland and maybe Scandinavia. However, any sustained shift towards a colder blast from the NW or North let alone the East looks a long way off still on this morning's output as the Jet stream remains relentless and quite strong as well as badly positioned for the UK and given these reasons along with the heights remaining stubbornly high just to our South it looks unlikely that we will be seeing widespread cold weather across the UK this side of early February given the output on offer this morning.  

Next Update Saturday January 23rd 2016 from 09:00

[Purga]

Unfortunately looking relentlessly zonal and increasingly unsettled across the models this morning.

The GEFS do look pretty scattered after 4/5 days but this could just be due to oscillating mild / cold sectors as more system cross the UK

 

I think I'll jet of to the USA for some proper winter

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35374741

Monster blizzard - Lucky Blighters!

[Singularity]

9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

We're getting there (1.2 is now 1.2 lower than 3.4)  but when you consider atmospheric lags and the fact that the gap may be not be sufficient anyway, it's unlikely that this will deliver.

The tweet referred to the atmospheric OLR anomalies I think. I would link it but I'm not on Twitter, as unthinkable as that is

The sheer magnitude of the Central Pacific anomalies seems to be tending to dominate the atmospheric response. I say this having spent considerable time discussing research on the subject with fellow experts in the field, however I'm open to a range of opinions so if you'd like to discuss we could do so on the ENSO thread? 

I believe that at the very least the usual EP signal is going AWOL which could prove handy next month.

[Frosty.]

39 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

At first glance the charts look dreadful, however as you can see the vortex looks to be on the move with the main chunk heading toward Scandinavia. We may have to endure some less cold but fairly windy weather first before some more favourable charts begin to appear over the next few weeks (for cold that is).

If things land right Feb could be a good one! And let's all hope it is worth the wait...

COME ON WINTER AS DELIA SMITH WOULD SAY "WHERE ARE YOU"

I thought we just had winter

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I thought we just had winter

Are you being serious? if you mean last week, I'd hardly call that winter. I've seen a couple of frosts and that's it. So yeah I'm still waiting for winter.

[mb018538]

Well we had 4 days around 3/4c and a few frosts here. Great wintry weather! 

unfortunately in the mid term things look awful this morning, which is kind of what I've been expecting the last few days. 10 more days of winter chalked off, looks like we're now clinging to the small crumbs offered in FI once again. It's getting towards do or die time for winter 15/16.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, West is Best said:

Well it's fairly depressing to see this Atlantic conveyor belt, especially given that just a couple of days ago this outrageous piece of Ice Age flirtation showed up:

 

 

It wasn't even particularly long range. I suppose the positive to take from that is that it can just easily flip again.

 

 

hi richard *waves*

those easterlies werenever a realistic proposition though, the noaa 500 mb charts never quite supported such a strong scand hig/easterly, they kept the upper flow in the westerly quadrant.

they now suggest quite a flat pattern, and have lessened the pressure over the continent. this could well lead to further pm incursions tamara mentioned. what coldies are looking for is the mean upper trough shifting eastwards, to our north or northeast. this could well happen in early feb imho.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Are you being serious? if you mean last week, I'd hardly call that winter. I've seen a couple of frosts and that's it. So yeah I'm still waiting for winter.

I saw it on the news there was snow with children sledging or was that stock footage from the 1970's?

[Derbyshire Snow]

have a satellite system and i thought you all might want to see this image at 9.15am showing the snowstorm in the US plus showing how zonal our flow is now. Showing 2 developing depressions in the Atlantic heading our way of course:-(. I will add comments on the models in the evening

I will post a further image of this tonight as well

 

If you are a bit bored waiting for cold try downloading this avi, fascinating up to date view of North Artlantic and the big snowstorm

 

North Atlantic Animation.avi

 

 

Edited January 22, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Ravelin]

Just to add to the list of charts where the Tropospheric PV is on the move, this one from the GFS(P) might be 'interesting' if it came off.

I suppose than since most of the models currently seem to be suggesting that the PV moves, in a day or two they'll all have changed their minds again.

[A.J]

model discussion please....there are plenty of other threads to discuss the merits of this winter season....thanks

[booferking]

Vortex strong as ever at the end of the last GFS run chasing a lost cause here me thinks,

[Day 10]

Does anybody know if there is live online coverage/updates on the predicted blizzard in the US?

Sorry mods i've posted in here as it's the busiest thread.

[Day 10]

7 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Does anybody know if there is live online coverage/updates on the predicted blizzard in the US?

Sorry mods i've posted in here as it's the busiest thread.

It's ok found one