Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening! Cannot see why are so glum about the upcoming synoptics! Tantalizingly very interesting , and the projected outlook screams cold rather than mild.

[Rocheydub]

13 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Only good or slightly better news I can find tonight..

 

 

In the USA

[Bullseye]

6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

In the USA

But I am posting this due to interest around Alaska, Arctic and more so Greenland/Mid-Atlantic heights.

[Rocheydub]

Just now, Bullseye said:

But I am posting this due to interest around Alaska, Arctic and more so Greenland/Mid-Atlantic heights.

Generally, if the east coast USA goes into the freezer, we get strong Atlantic lows targeted at us via rapid cyclogenesis. It would be rather unusual if we could get sustained blocking in Greenland from that sort of pattern. 

[Bullseye]

13 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Generally, if the east coast USA goes into the freezer, we get strong Atlantic lows targeted at us via rapid cyclogenesis. It would be rather unusual if we could get sustained blocking in Greenland from that sort of pattern. 

Can see where your coming from, although the times we as in Western Europe suffered from a very cold pattern East Coast also went into similar way. And this one shows to be more cold focused on Mid-West rather than East Coast. 

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

But I am posting this due to interest around Alaska, Arctic and more so Greenland/Mid-Atlantic heights.

The lack of 'interest' in the Greenland/mid-Atlantic which has been shrouded by negative geopotential height anomalies is precisely why we've seen nothing of note thus far, on that basis it is very encouraging to see. As I have been saying methinks both sides of the pond will be joining in. 

[fergieweather]

32 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening! Cannot see why are so glum about the upcoming synoptics! Tantalizingly very interesting , and the projected outlook screams cold rather than mild.

Yes. Some rather odd model assessments this evening. I'd have thought the colder weather aficionados would be quite content (and ditto the deep cyclonicity fans) with 12z EC output that exhibits just two T+240 clusters embracing both camps of favouritism... 

[marksiwnc]

Just now, fergieweather said:

Yes. Some rather odd model assessments this evening. I'd have thought the colder weather aficionados would be quite content (and ditto the deep cyclonicity fans) with 12z EC output that exhibits just two T+240 clusters embracing both camps of favouritism... 

Hopefully there is also yn undercut situation with regards to other low pressures joining with the one to our ne.  Now that would be screaming snow!  Keep up the good work Ian. Much appreciated 

 

Any reason why the low pressure that develops at around 140  only moves about 500 miles??  Seems a bit strange with such a strong jetstream.  

Edited January 30, 2016 by marksiwnc

[Snowman.]

37 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The lack of 'interest' in the Greenland/mid-Atlantic which has been shrouded by negative geopotential height anomalies is precisely why we've seen nothing of note thus far, on that basis it is very encouraging to see. As I have been saying methinks both sides of the pond will be joining in. 

Clear indication of Atlantic height rises whether or not the south gets anything from it is a different matter. My hopes aren't high for the latter. 

As steve said this has got to be one of the worst winters in terms of cold and rain. 

Edited January 30, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[bobbydog]

i don't know... it might not be narnia but i won't be getting the barbecue and sun-lounger out for a while yet. looks like winter to me...

[Man With Beard]

Better cold clusters beyond D10 on the ECM ensembles (London) tonight - a fair few maxing at 4C or lower later on in the run.

[damianslaw]

Models continue to support an ever increasing likelihood of a shot of preety polar/arctic maritime air to invade the country as we enter second week of Feb, before then a cold PM shot Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Both GFS and ECM do show such a scenario - so a lot of agreement in this respect.

Where the uncertainty lies is upstream - can we see a more pronounced build of heights to our NW at the same time, something that has been elusive so far this winter and the reason why the last cold spell quickly collapsed, however, unlike then, the upper atmosphere will be more conducive to such developments especially I believe as February wears on.

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Clear indication of Atlantic height rises whether or not the south gets anything from it is a different matter. My hopes aren't high for the latter. 

As steve said this has got to be one of the worst winters in terms of cold and rain. 

Clearly he commented SO FAR not as a whole dismissing the remaining weeks aheads which is a very silly move which seems to have been undertaken an ignorant move.

Despite it being the mildest winter it has been the "snowiest" IMBY - that tells a story in itself looking back to predecessors 14/15 & 13/14 nor has it been particularly wet out of north/west.

[SMU]

Morning All

Another day another set of runs -

just following up from Ian's post last night in terms the muted response to cold potential in the days 5-10

I guess I speak for most ( but not all ) in saying that the synoptics presented are for most 'at best' - marginally better than awful ( awful being mild west winds ) 

what this slightly better set up will deliver in short bursts is showers turning to snow over more especially elevated areas of Scotland , the NW & NI - 

for the rest & indeed the main consensus is the oscillations will be between 

- windy & mild rain to

- windy & cold rain...

pretty unwelcoming.....

 

looking at the projections the mean trough never looks like getting east of the meridian - allowing a full on arctic flow -

instead we get it located over the UK on the east or NE side allowing for NW winds to filter through bringing modified  polar air to the UK- even at 240 when the actual ECM looks quite nice, the reality is theres no polar feed & the UK has well mixed air.

There is the caveat that the location of the mean trough could be further east & it has taken an incremental nibble that way overnight ( in the models ) but if a true cold snap is going to develop in the period covering 10-20 feb then low heights need to penetrate east of the UK ( more especially SE of the UK )- the rule of thumb being the mean trough to the east needs to be at lower lattitude than any high that ridges in the atlantic to deliver true polar air-

 

a little sniff of excitement from the GFS out in the day 16 arena - but nothing concrete .....

heres the day 8 mean that shows nothing special other than what ive described above -

 

have a good day

S

Edited January 31, 2016 by Steve Murr

[TheBigFreeze]

I very rarely post as I am still in the very early learning stages which is being hugely helped by some great posters on here, and for that I thank you.

If I'm looking at things correctly, at the moment the jet is a little further south than normal and as Henry passes away to our NE it will allow colder air to, albeit briefly, sink South across the country before the jet repositions and another Atlantic low is upon us. Looking ahead I see some "potential optimism" from the meto for something colder for longer as we move into the 2nd week of Feb.  I am a little confused as where do they see this cold potential coming from? As already stated, if the Eastern USA goes into the freezer we as a result will usually get ambushed by deep Atlantic dart board lows  targeted at us as a result of cyclogenesis, thus preventing any chances of heights rising in the Atlantic to for some kind of block? Is "usually" the key word in that sentence, or is it depending on the depth and track of the lows, which will effect the chances of a block forming? Or do they see the cold potential coming from elsewhere?

 

Sorry for so many what are probably really basic questions, but I am a total novice and even what I have written might be totally wrong, but you have to start somewhere I guess.

 

Thanks

[snowblizzard]

Even Eastern Europe now warming-up.

Moscow +3c this morning and positive temperatures expected for most of next week!

Edited January 31, 2016 by snowblizzard

[mb018538]

Doesn't seem to matter if the eastern USA is cold or mild, we get shafted either way with absolute dross!

nothing exciting again this morning, gfs builds heights right out at the end of the run, but this is about as much use as an inflatable dartboard. Probably be gone on the 6z. Rubbish all round, cold wet and very windy.

[Banbury]

18z and 0z have started to show slight changes towards the end of the run , plenty of time for change IMO

[Weather-history]

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[Cloud 10]

29 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Even Eastern Europe now warming-up.

Moscow +3c this morning and positive temperatures expected for most of next week!

 

Yes,looks like good news for those Russian woodsheds.

 

[fergieweather]

35 minutes ago, TheBigFreeze said:

I very rarely post as I am still in the very early learning stages which is being hugely helped by some great posters on here, and for that I thank you.

If I'm looking at things correctly, at the moment the jet is a little further south than normal and as Henry passes away to our NE it will allow colder air to, albeit briefly, sink South across the country before the jet repositions and another Atlantic low is upon us. Looking ahead I see some "potential optimism" from the meto for something colder for longer as we move into the 2nd week of Feb.  I am a little confused as where do they see this cold potential coming from? 

Colder, as in relative to milder episodes (today becoming a case in point), with phases likely to fall slightly below average. As previously discussed, 'colder' should not be translated as 'very cold': quite different terminology! The 00z EC-ENS show the general shift towards chillier weather well (Reading shown, v model climatology).

[Purga]

Have to have a sense of humour - great synoptics in FI GFS but it gives us a mild easterly !

You couldn't make it up!

Edited January 31, 2016 by Purga

[Banbury]

Looks fairly cold to me

[bluearmy]

I see that the more fun gfs fi's have begun to appear.

the idea of a system diving se just to our sw (around the 12th) whilst we are under a fairly chilly upper trough is one which has been trailed on the controls and hinted at on the means/ anomolys .  I would be looking at that to potentially change the game re euro trough and Atlantic ridge behind. the real game changer would depend on the behaviour of the 'bi polar' polar high. can it bring that Atlantic amplification far enough North?  Anyway, the north of the Uk looks likely to retain snow chances throughout whilst the south could come into play depending on the evolution after the 10th. 

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening! Cannot see why are so glum about the upcoming synoptics! Tantalizingly very interesting , and the projected outlook screams cold rather than mild.

maybe because the only colder weather on offer are transitory blasts from the northwest whilst most are looking for a proper cold spell with widespread snow. that simply isnt on offer and if the noaa anomaly charts are correct (and they have around a 70% accuracy rate) then theres no such spell for the first half of february .