Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Redwood]

Do we wait till next Feb?

 

[The Weather Dragon]

I do remember some models (can't remember which) predicting a persisting euro high (Bartlett) back in the autumn 2015 - with a relationship to the strong El Niño - back to current model output & it's looking gloomy for cold - next best would be some more settled weather. 

[mb018538]

Well here is the 12z GFS ensemble:



The OP was one of the mildest and driest members today - read into that what you will. I'd wager that the bulk of the colder members are just cold PM zonal shots rather than anything decent...though they do at least look a tad drier than they did yesterday. Is the scatter just a flip flopping of zonal mild/cold/mild/cold conditions prevailing?

As fergie said above, the US storm looks like firing a huge temperature gradient into higher latitudes and really firing the jet.

[Drifty]

It's like reading posts from years past! Cold u.s firing the jet! More floods more wind! More government money's for flood hit victims! More pictures of submerged cars! This time last year cold snap, no more bit of snow! Few frosts! Then same for another 12 months! It's easy! Face it folks are climate has changed to boring, seasons into 1! Give it 4 months, I predict same temp same precip the lot as today!!

[mulzy]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well here is the 12z GFS ensemble:



The OP was one of the mildest and driest members today - read into that what you will. I'd wager that the bulk of the colder members are just cold PM zonal shots rather than anything decent...though they do at least look a tad drier than they did yesterday. Is the scatter just a flip flopping of zonal mild/cold/mild/cold conditions prevailing?

As fergie said above, the US storm looks like firing a huge temperature gradient into higher latitudes and really firing the jet.

The silver lining is that it can't get much worse than these set of ensembles!

Meanwhile ECM 12z offers us little by day 10...

[PLANET THANET]

1 minute ago, Drifty said:

It's like reading posts from years past! Cold u.s firing the jet! More floods more wind! More government money's for flood hit victims! More pictures of submerged cars! This time last year cold snap, no more bit of snow! Few frosts! Then same for another 12 months! It's easy! Face it folks are climate has changed to boring, seasons into 1! Give it 4 months, I predict same temp same precip the lot as today!!

if your that fed up with the weather and as you quote "its like reading posts from years past" unquote, why did you register and come on this site ?

[nick sussex]

The ECM ordinarily would be underwhelming but in light of the GFS XXX rated mild horror show its better with at least the jet further south and the AO dropping.

I think the issue even if the main chunk of the PV goes to Scandi is the leftover PV lobes and the one likely to pull up its deck chair over the ne of Canada.

Theres no chance of any ridging north with the PV lobe there so no chance at the moment of any deeper cold getting into the UK.

Overall we're left with variations on the same theme of zonal be it milder GFS or  cooler ECM.  I think its a case now of seeing what happens with any SSW and the movement of the MJO.

 

[wishingforsnow]

5 minutes ago, Drifty said:

It's like reading posts from years past! Cold u.s firing the jet! More floods more wind! More government money's for flood hit victims! More pictures of submerged cars! This time last year cold snap, no more bit of snow! Few frosts! Then same for another 12 months! It's easy! Face it folks are climate has changed to boring, seasons into 1! Give it 4 months, I predict same temp same precip the lot as today!!

I think people are going a bit stir crazy regarding the recent output and what is happening in the US at the moment.

Seriously calling every season to be wet, mild and rainy throughout? 

Yes it doesn't look good for us at the moment if we want more cold and settled weather before February. We established that. But we still have to see if the impact of the US will mean that it stays mild and wet until Spring or if there is a chance of change as we move into February. 

Edited January 22, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Drifty]

For exciting winter Synoptics like most winter lovers I suppose?????

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Drifty said:

For exciting winter Synoptics like most winter lovers I suppose?????

 Yes its frustrating and yes the UK climate can be frustrating for people who like cold and snow but  theres nothing anyone can do about it. Unless someone paves over the Atlantic then that's the way it is. Snow and cold will always be the exception in the UK,  those few better winters papered over the cracks.

I suppose you take the rough with the smooth, you're not likely to get wiped out by a tornado or heat stroke or suffer  the choking humidity of a lot of those areas in the USA. And you're also not likely to get your head blown off going to buy a pint of milk!

February can still deliver and has often done so in the past, if you get the right synoptics then the increase in solar energy needn't be a problem.

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Hmmm. Unlikely, as it stands. The pronounced (& potentially record-breaking re snowfall issues) cold air outbreak in the US this weekend looks set to fire-up the jet with both vigour and what could prove considerable longevity. Realistically, as we've seen before in such set-ups, there's little chance of a speedy broadscale change to that pattern (an oscillating trough - flat ridge - trough etc etc story, with some deeper cyclonic members too in the ENS). There's scant sign of such change in latest medium range suites (EC 00z, EC Monthly, MOGREPS-15 and GloSea5) through remainder of Jan into at least early Feb, albeit hopefully some opportunity for the south to tap into +ve MSLP at least periodically, offering quieter, less windy/changeable weather, perhaps with frost and fog at times. Still no compelling SSW signal to hang hats on, but that could always change into next month.

Record breaking snowfall or not, the cold over the eastern seaboard over the US looks a temporary affair with much warmer uppers establishing over the next few days. As a result, I am a little confused about your comments with regards to the jet firing up with longevity? Longevity being the keyword!

[Drifty]

If we all group together? I don't think will cost too much to path over the Atlantic! I love this country, just a shame the weather is a wee bit super dupere!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Why is zonality such as what we have had for most of this winter and the whole of winter 2013-14, always mild that produces nothing but rain and is snowless at least away from the Scottish mountains?  It is not directly Atlantic zonality that keeps our winter weather mild in most of the UK, it is only the orientation of the zonal flow that is wrong as far as cold in the UK is concerned.  Yes mild zonality (SW-NE) carries air that is mostly of a tropical maritime origin tracking will always keep the UK milder than average with the only exception possibly being north Scotland that gets polar maritime incursions.  It is only like how sometimes if blocking occurs it is possible for it not to orientate favourably or be in a favourable position to get cold air to the UK. 

On the other face of it, in an Atlantic zonal driven pattern, even without any significant northern blocking or HLB influencing the UK, it is possible to turn the UK's weather much colder, and bring snow rather than rain, much further south than north Scotland.  This is if the zonal flow is orientated favourably for the UK (NW-SE tracking) which makes the zonal flow more of a polar maritime origin rather than bringing tropical maritime air as far north as the UK.

www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif  Very much a positive NAO looking chart with a polar vortex centered over Greenland, no northern blocking anywhere near, but GUESS WHAT, much colder weather under polar maritime air much further south into England and snow fell rather than rain, although admittedly more snow from the Midlands northwards.  Looking at this chart at a glance it looks mild for most of the UK, but only glaring at the chart shows that the air associated with this track of zonal flow is from the north Atlantic near Greenland (polar maritime zonality)

 

www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif      www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif  These are an even more famous example, deep PV over Greenland, quite zonal, fairly positive NAO, north-eastern blocking a long way from the UK and certainly nowhere near enough to influence the UK, but QUESS WHAT, this produced significant widespread snowfall for most of the UK at least away from the far south, when at a first glance this setup certainly does not look cold for the UK and looks a rain set-up for most of the country.

 

There are a few other examples of good polar maritime zonal Atlantic driven weather for the UK, although not as good as the above.

www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1968/Rrea00119680206.gif  A bit of blocking to the west but the low over the UK is still Atlantic sourced.

This is good for a polar maritime zonal pattern:  www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif 

This is not bad:  www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950125.gif

and this brought snow rather than rain as far south as the southern Pennines when the pattern is still zonal:

www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090120.gif    This is the most favourable cold polar maritime zonal setup that I can find in the last ten years or so.

 

When examples like the above have happened and can happen in a favourable orientation of a zonal setup, I find it the most depressing pattern of the UK's winter weather patterns when all a zonal flow does is bring above average temperatures and rain to most parts of the UK.  Why can we not have colder polar maritime zonality?  It is only a more favourable orientation of zonal flows, and the Bartlett / Euroslug high setup not developing, that is needed to bring much colder weather to the UK and snow rather than rain further south than the Scottish mountains.  When the UK can and has experienced cold polar maritime zonal patterns in the past then every milder zonal spell in winter is just so depressing when it just so often appears that most of the UK is around 500-800 miles too far south to benefit from cold polar maritime air in a zonal flow.

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z at least shows some polar maritime incursions alternating with mild Tropical maritime, it looks wet and very windy at times with brighter and colder more showery intervals with snow, at least on northern hills and night frosts in the quieter interludes depending on timing but overall the next ten days look generally unsettled but not mild all the time I'm pleased to say!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Record breaking snowfall or not, the cold over the eastern seaboard over the US looks a temporary affair with much warmer uppers establishing over the next few days. As a result, I am a little confused about your comments with regards to the jet firing up with longevity? Longevity being the keyword!

The jet firing up is unavoidable because of the PV increasing in strength.  You've also got to factor in the PV lobe likely to be left over the ne of Canada that will continue to feed colder air into the Atlantic.

The ECM although further south with the jet still has it firing bullets at the UK. We just have to hope for some re-newed amplification and a weakening of this as we head into February and also a SSW!

[Ali1977]

Ian didn't say winter is over - just the next 15 days nothing cold looks likely - that's still only into the first week of Feb...If he's saying this in the 3rd week of Feb then yes, nationwide snow and ice days starts to become harder - but not impossible.

[snowray]

Well at least some transient cooling down there Frosty. On the whole though, another day and another bunch of horrribilis runs...

[IDO]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Record breaking snowfall or not, the cold over the eastern seaboard over the US looks a temporary affair with much warmer uppers establishing over the next few days. As a result, I am a little confused about your comments with regards to the jet firing up with longevity? Longevity being the keyword!

If you run through the GFS op for T850s you will see at least 5 reloads into the US as a block of very cold upper air is revolving around the Greenland area. So the US are in for some very cold and snowy weeks That is a recipe to fire up the jet:

D5:   D10:  D15: 

As we saw the last two years when there is prolonged cold in the US we usually get a zonal Atlantic flow. The models are very good at predicting this type of pattern so do not expect a flip in the next 10 days at least.

[mb018538]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Record breaking snowfall or not, the cold over the eastern seaboard over the US looks a temporary affair with much warmer uppers establishing over the next few days. As a result, I am a little confused about your comments with regards to the jet firing up with longevity? Longevity being the keyword!

This is true, but all that happens is the cold pool gets shunted out from Canada into the Atlantic, and leaves this massive temperature gradient

 

Result is a strong zonal jet again. By 240 the eastern half of the usa is warmer, but the jet is established, and the strong jet streak is nearer to the Uk

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well at least some transient cooling down there Frosty. On the whole though, another day and another bunch of horrribilis runs...

Yes snowray, wish we had what the eastern USA is getting but that's life, hopefully our time will come!

[blizzard81]

20 minutes ago, IDO said:

If you run through the GFS op for T850s you will see at least 5 reloads into the US as a block of very cold upper air is revolving around the Greenland area. So the US are in for some very cold and snowy weeks That is a recipe to fire up the jet:

D5:   D10:  D15: 

As we saw the last two years when there is prolonged cold in the US we usually get a zonal Atlantic flow. The models are very good at predicting this type of pattern so do not expect a flip in the next 10 days at least.

Very well but the ecm looks very different over the US at day 5. Sorry, not day 5 but the ecm certainly doesn't show persistent frigid air over the next 10 days.

Edited January 22, 2016 by blizzard81

[Catacol]

31 minutes ago, joggs said:

Gp around to shed some light on the wandering torpedo?

Silent running....

Not looking great at the moment, but perhaps one straw to clutch on Stewart's interpretation might be the fact that the spike in AAM back in early January was off the scale, and therefore not a variable that has impacted on the pattern (or the models) in this way in the past. Stewart did point to a 3 week lag on the impact, bringing us to the start of next week. I had hoped to see a change in model output as that date approached. It hasnt happened.... but maybe there is a faint hope that when the energy transfer really lands properly next week the models might receive a shock as the atmosphere is impacted in a way not seen since 1983, and even then not to the degree that this spike should bring.

If it all goes bust and we dont see a pattern shift until week 2 (or later) of February then I guess it is all more knowledge to bank for any future scenarios when similar teleconnections may exist. I'm sure if this is the case Stewart will give an straight post mortem on the fail, and acknowledge what caused the bust. It is beyond my knowledge quite to see what seems to be preventing surging heights to higher latitudes under current teleconnections... as my basic knowledge is that an AAM spike under Nino conditions with a previously disrupted trop vortex should have driven a dagger through the westerly flow, and caused fairly substantial disruption. Instead we have a signal for a strat/trop coupling of the vortex over the Scandy in time perhaps for the last half of February, but in the meantime the jet is powering up and the azores high is forecast to remain stubbornly fixed bar the occasional wobble. Understand it? No - not really... Cant blame a spike in solar activity for firing up the atlantic again, and cant really blame Nino as analogues suggest a decline in Nino forcing in the second half of winter. Snow in the east in the US? OK - I can swallow some of IF's thought there, but gotta be honest: if snow in the US was a key driving feature of our atlantic weather then I rather suspect there would be a lot more discussion of it every year. I'm not 100% convinced with that.

There seems to be a mixed opinion on the impact of the ongoing negative anomaly in north atlantic sea temperatures and I'll admit to being uncertain of my own interpretation of this one. The MJO isnt helping at present - I think under current Nino conditions the expectation was that it would progress fairly smoothly through the phases, but instead we appear to see a forecast of rather long dalliance in phase 4 with a rather unpleasant looking compostive like this:

... something currently supported by the research over at the University of East Anglia - a page I quite like in terms of getting a feel for MJO predicition alongside the CPC. They see a rather slow progression right through to 24th Feb, with no obvious move back towards the more desirable phase 8 composite. East Anglia link is here:

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html

 

So - are we genuinely clutching at straws? I hope not. Tamara seemed confident. Simon Keeling also sounds confident. The MetO seem to be hedging their bets but if anything backing off for a change early in Feb. Strat events continue to be a long drawn out story of frustration, though signs once again that we might be heading to a proper wave 1 hit and a displacement event of some sorts.... but I'm not holding my breath. When Chio and GP both referred in different posts earlier in winter to a "slow burner" of a strat season they certainly werent wrong!! It's made for pretty painful and frustrating watching as the vortex has remained tough as old boots to break down. All in all - its enough to make my poor head hurt..

We will just have to see. The weather has a habit of making fools of us all. I bang on about Feb 96 quite a lot - but it was a case in point. Dec 12 was another - how did that easterly escape?? So maybe things will come together in the next week... and maybe Stewart's previous faith in a pattern shift pushed on by the huge spike in AAM will come to pass. Whatever happens I guess we all remain hooked.... and even if the next severe spell of weather with widespread snow doesnt arrive until 2025 many/most of us will keep coming back to sites like this and hoping. I guess if it really snowed every year we'd become bored and uninterested!

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The jet firing up is unavoidable because of the PV increasing in strength.  You've also got to factor in the PV lobe likely to be left over the ne of Canada that will continue to feed colder air into the Atlantic.

The ECM although further south with the jet still has it firing bullets at the UK. We just have to hope for some re-newed amplification and a weakening of this as we head into February and also a SSW!

I understand Nick but what I was referring to was the rising 850's over the eastern seaboard shown quite frequently on the ecm run. This should subdue cyclogenesis - singularity also alluded to this in a post he made yesterday. The gist of what I was trying to say is that I am finding it difficult to marry this up to what Fergie said in his post about longevity to the jet firing up. I would understand this being a long affair if the frigid air remained over the eastern seaboard but the cold is actually forecast to lift with rising 850's.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Very well but the ecm looks very different over the US at day 5

I think the GFS solution upto T240hrs is less likely given the other outputs.

The best out of the set up if the main PV chunk goes to Scandi and leaves that lobe in ne Canada is some pressure rise in the Arctic pushing the jet further south this could if it gets further south engage those lows with some colder air.

The issue is what the models want to do after this in terms of whether they want to move the main chunk back west again.

[Daniel*]

A little patience is needed, some silly posts creeping in.

February is ripe for the taking. I'm no strat expert but the chart below shows a significant warming on Eurasia side off the scale in fact!  They do not come often

At 10hPa level on latest GFS, it would reshuffle the deck' imo.