Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Frosty.]

Well, at least it's cold with widespread frosts by T+240 on Ecm 12z.

[nick sussex]

If offered I would take the ECM at day ten but the question is whether this pattern will  survive to actually verify.

Deep cold in the USA isn't such a problem if this is more central USA based with the main PV chunk over Hudson Bay rather than further east.

We could do with a weaker mid Atlantic low but overall the NH pattern it shows does have potential but we've been here many times with potential imploding quickly.

I think we're really looking at any decent cold potential being the second half of February and this would likely then coincide with more favourable MJO phases.

NCEP apparently will be giving their final update on the pattern in the USA for February this evening and although as we've seen that can deliver cold there and mild in Europe they will be covering some key teleconnections that do impact us like the MJO.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2016 by nick sussex

[Daniel*]

A monster ridge going up west coast WAA going polewards which can only be a good thing, it seems to be the torpedo hitting its target for U.S. how we will fare going forward is much more uncertain. 

[Frosty.]

LOL found this in the moaning thread, some may be considering throwing in the towel, some probably already have but I don't think I will because I see some wintry potential in the latest models covering the next few weeks and I think the best of this winter will occur during Feb and even into march!

[phil nw.]

We are still having to hide off topic posts.

I think we all appreciate that snowfall and meaningful cold has been lacking for many away from parts of Scotland and some other higher elevations but please use the moaning/banter thread for expressing your views.

Let's keep this thread on topic and around the model outputs please all.

Thanks. 

 

[nick sussex]

Looking at the main ECM ensemble spreads the largest degree of uncertainty is running nw/se to the west of the UK in towards Iberia.

The mean does take the main chunk of the PV towards Hudson Bay. The Azores high looks well supported to displace to the sw and the jet likely angled nw/se.

Theres not much 850 spread near the UK so troughing and low pressure likely to be close by upto day ten.

The short ECM De Bilt ensembles have good clustering and tie in with the zonal cooler flow,for some parts of the UK given the set up are likely to be colder.

The ones cheering tonights outputs will be the European ski resorts with some good snowfalls likely but no sign upto day ten of anything significantly colder for lowland parts.

[Dunstable Snow]

Ian Brown didn't make many friends when he used to post on here ... He did however make one point which I think is quite well illustrated on the NH view charts of the 12z GFS this evening. The point - The chances of an Artic High working itself in a position to deliver meaningful sustainable cold to the UK are extremely low. If you go through the run there are plenty of examples illustrating this. I have to say, whenever I see comments referring to a nice artic high that could work in our favour I tend to discount it unless there are really compelling reasons not to do so. This is particularly the case in winters like this one  where there is just too much mobility at high latitudes.

I was in a grotty mood last night. Today's output hasn't helped a jot...

 

[phil nw.]

A heads up i will be closing this thread in a few minutes so maybe just hold off posting anymore until the new thread is open.

[phil nw.]

Ok new thread now open here

 

ready for further discussions and the 18z GFS run.

Locking this one now.