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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

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A fresh thread to go with the end of the current colder spell, and move back into a more mobile and mild pattern for the time being at least. 

For those who maybe don't know where to find the various model outputs, many of them are available right here on Netweather:
 
NetWx-SR
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-sr;sess=
 
NetWx-MR
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-mr;sess=
 
GFS
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
 
Ensembles
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=
 
ECMWF
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=
 
ECMWF EPS
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecmens;sess=
 
Met Office Global
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=meto;sess=
 
Met Office Fax
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess=
 
GEM
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gem;sess=
 
Model Comparison
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

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Some improvement on 06 Z GFS mid range with Russian high positioned much further northwest than 00z with trough disruption beneath the ridge forcing very cold air back as far west as Denmark. 

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I'd say mild is pretty much nailed on now until February at least. Everything seems to have sunk back towards the status quo.

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The Gfs 6z shows quite a mobile pattern with the most unsettled weather across the north and the best of the fine weather in the south. Temperatures alternate frequently between mild / very mild Tm air and cooler / colder rPm / Pm sourced air but most of it brushes across northern UK with the southern half predominantly milder, there are some very mild days with 13/14c and holding up well at night with 10/11c minima....so. it's a changeable outlook but the run ends on a high note, literally!:D

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmintemp.png

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu (1).png

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

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Still quite a spread on the 6z ensembles....problem is now there aren't really any cold members at all. A few hovering around -5, but nothing seriously cold at all. Looks like we're down to 4 good weeks left to salvage anything from this winter!

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed Nick...:rofl:

lipstick-on-a-pig5.jpg

True, I've got nothing against pigs! But the winter so far has been a pig, no amount of lipstick or window dressing alters that fact.

The outputs today are dire upto T240hrs, what happens in February is too early to say. If I could find something within T240hrs to spin positively I would but sadly last nights more spinnable ECM bit the dust this morning and even that just scraped over the spinnable threshold! lol

 

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True, I've got nothing against pigs! But the winter so far has been a pig, no amount of lipstick or window dressing alters that fact.

The outputs today are dire upto T240hrs, what happens in February is too early to say. If I could find something within T240hrs to spin positively I would but sadly last nights more spinnable ECM bit the dust this morning and even that just scraped over the spinnable threshold! lol

 

I agree Nick, pigs are nice!:)

I was guilty of over hyping the cold spell in the early stages although to be fair the models were showing some dazzling wintry synoptics in FI but they never made it into the reliable as per usual and now we are staring down the barrel at a predominantly milder outlook, yet another kick in the teeth for coldies nationwide but hopefully February will produce something better..wouldn't be difficult would it!:D

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I agree Nick, pigs are nice!:)

I was guilty of over hyping the cold spell in the early stages although to be fair the models were showing some dazzling wintry synoptics in FI but they never made it into the reliable as per usual and now we are staring down the barrel at a predominantly milder outlook, yet another kick in the teeth for coldies nationwide but hopefully February will produce something better..wouldn't be difficult would it!:D

The bitter irony Frosty is that the better cold synoptics were likely de-railed by the strat warming! The effect of these warmings can lead to an initial  surge in westerlies. As the PV reacts to those warmings, its only when you finally finish off the PV that the pain can have been said to have been worth it! You might get a favourable displacement or split.

We'll see in February whether the PV will finally relent.

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The bitter irony Frosty is that the better cold synoptics were likely de-railed by the strat warming! The effect of these warmings can lead to an initial  surge in westerlies. As the PV reacts to those warmings, its only when you finally finish off the PV that the pain can have been said to have been worth it! You might get a favourable displacement or split.

We'll see in February whether the PV will finally relent.

I absolutely agree nick:)

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38 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Deep Mid -Wintertime ebbs away slowly and painfully increasingly mild again. Very frustrating , a couple of frosts hardly icing the flooded terrains of British Isles. A few centimetres of wet snow in places if you were lucky. What a miserable effort of a winter so far for many in Western Europe. Ok we had a week of snowfall in the Alps and plenty of frosts so far this month, but the latest models hold out for very little snow now for the rest of this month and temps going way up again next week. Looks like the drought across much of mainland Europe to continue and sadly for you lot a record mild winter now firmly on the cards.

 C

Indeed C, even though I've got this cold spell in mind for endof Jan but mainly first half of Feb, looking back over century + of records I've not seen a mild Dec and mild Jan followed by anything remotely cold as a CET for the month of Feb so statistically not looking good at all.  If anyone can find an example for a crumb of comfort...chuck it in here.

Models are very poor for cold currently, and indeed we are about to experience more wild swings as we get quite balmy by Sun/Mon.   Still let's see what happens over next 4-5 days.

BFTP

 

Edit - I have looked at Dec with 6c+ CET as a start point

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed C, even though I've got this cold spell in mind for endof Jan but mainly first half of Jan, looking back over century + of records I've not seen a mild Dec and mild Jan followed by anything remotely cold as a CET for the month of Feb so statistically not looking good at all.  If anyone can find an example for a crumb of comfort...chuck it in here.

Models are very poor for cold currently, and indeed we are about to experience more wild swings as we get quite balmy by Sun/Mon.   Still let's see what happens over next 4-5 days.

BFTP

Yes if you look at the Hadley CET records that supports your point re the Dec/Jan correlation. There are some which show a fall but generally not into the real cold category. Of course those means can hide perhaps two parts of a month one very mild then much colder. At this point I think most cold and snow lovers in here would settle for at least a month with some much colder interludes with snow even if parts of the month were milder.

Anyway for those with a lot of time on their hands and the espresso machine stocked up heres the Hadley CET data all the way back to 1659! lol

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes if you look at the Hadley CET records that supports your point re the Dec/Jan correlation. There are some which show a fall but generally not into the real cold category. Of course those means can hide perhaps two parts of a month one very mild then much colder. At this point I think most cold and snow lovers in here would settle for at least a month with some much colder interludes with snow even if parts of the month were milder.

Anyway for those with a lot of time on their hands and the espresso machine stocked up heres the Hadley CET data all the way back to 1659! lol

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

A repeat of the Feb 1986 CET -1.1 would have this place in utter melt down,well this year ends with a

6 so maybe all not lost LOL

C.S

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Can we please get back to discussing the models? We have threads dedicated to past winters. Even though I can't find them!:rofl:

like the post ,personally i think we could all do with a break Stellas and baps  ,on me .

plenty of time left for dream synoptics but very frustrating looking east at present i,m expecting a better run tonight from ECM  ,great forum gang .:yahoo:

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16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Apart from the suggestion of some major warming of the strat the outputs today are awful for any colder conditions.

The ECM scrapes some interest at day ten but even then a lobe of the PV is still sticking to ne Canada.

Theres little chance of any blocking over Russia making much progress within the next ten days as it stands little chance of fighting off energy spilling east from Greenland.

Overall it looks like a disappointing end to what should be the heart of winter, we're now left with February to salvage some wintry prospects.

At least there has been some decent frosts and a little snow for some parts of the UK but this is just putting lipstick on the pig.

Moan over!!!

oh dear,you dont seem very confident as we head towards feb,i would think their still plenty of time yet for Feb to deliver the goods,even if the models look bleak at the moment

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Apologies if I'm late to the show on this, but the GFS parallel gives hope of cold. I notice there is a 1050mb Scandi High for a few days around the turn of the month. There's always hope of cold getting in when this happens, a little trough disruption to the west and who knows. Still, beyond T200 ATM so not to be taken too seriously.

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GFS Parallel isn't running at the moment. Last run was 36hrs ago

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Yep - thanks S. We definitely want to avoid phase 1/2...

And for anyone feeling gloomy with the charts at present, let's cast our mind back 14 days to this:

gfs-2016010712-0-6.png

 

Lots can - and will - happen in 14 days of weather, and the background signals are still calling cold...at least that's how I see it even if it is irritating to have to put up with a more positive AO and resurgent Euro high in the short term. 

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