Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[phil nw.]

27 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I've lost the MJO Analogue composites url.  Can someone remind me please?

Here you mulzy

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Here you mulzy

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

Thanks Phil!

[mother nature rocks]

Just been watching Joe Bastarrdi Saturday summary over on weather bell. At the end there is a snippet about Europe and how we could be going back into the freezer. ❄️❄️

I do believe the models will be showing a lot more in the days to come.☃☃

[Yozzer]

9 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Just been watching Joe Bastarrdi Saturday summary over on weather bell. At the end there is a snippet about Europe and how we could be going back into the freezer. ❄️❄️

I do believe the models will be showing a lot more in the days to come.☃☃

Maybe, but given that the UK only occupies approx. 2.5% of the land area of Europe, don't assume that he is referring to Blighty.

[mother nature rocks]

20 minutes ago, Yozzer said:

Maybe, but given that the UK only occupies approx. 2.5% of the land area of Europe, don't assume that he is referring to Blighty.

one should never assume and we all know where the saying goes from there.

i was merely pointing out what was said on his video.

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-30-2016

Edited January 31, 2016 by mother nature rocks

[MP-R]

33 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

we could be going back into the freezer. ❄️❄️

'Back'? We haven't even been in it yet lol 

I think the best from the models so far is the increase in Pm air as next week goes on, after tomorrow of course. I'm sick to the back teeth of this grey mush and remember the prevalence of sunshine last winter when Pm airmasses prevailed.

[coldcomfort]

Well with 62 days of so called winter (must be against the Trade Descriptions Act!) gone and only 29 to go, the models are still failing to inspire me regarding a chance of a proper country wide cold spell, but the one straw to clutch is we are not likely to see a repeat performance of the Dec pattern as we go into Feb. That said however things certainly look to remain very unsettled, even stormy at times, with the south possibly seeing rather more of the wind/rain action as time goes by. Would I prefer wet and windy with ave temps to very mild, wet and windy? Bit of Hobson choice really, but in the absence of any snow/frosts I'd probably prefer to keep the heating bill down on balance....this winter has been an absolute shocker so far and it will take a monumental turn around and at least a 2 week freeze just to say we have salvaged something - but it doesn't look likely!

[Mucka]

I must admit I am not seeing anything to get excited about and I live in the NW.

All I see is ordinary winter weather, wet and windy, milder/cooler. In a word Zonal.

Maybe it will be cooler for a time in the second week of Feb as the trough moves East and winds swing more NW/N but it is all quite tame and low chance of lying snow to low levels of England as far as I can see - perhaps a temporary slushy dusting in the far North if they catch a shower at the right time.

That looks fairly short lived as well though as the next Atlantic system is waiting in the wings to bring more wet and windy weather with milder temps.

Any possibility of genuine winter cold will come if that system drops into Europe toward mid month.

 

GEM is at least better than GFS with the Northerly and potential ridge though

Edited January 31, 2016 by Mucka

[Eskimo]

Cold, wet & windy with some hill snow for the next 10 days according to the latest GFS. Anyone above 200m and the further north and west, the better chance of seeing snow. Those (being a vast proportion of 'us') in the southeast, just very windy, cool and wet. Grotty.

Edited January 31, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[Rocheydub]

I think we will see heights pushing up mid Atlantic into Greenland as this run progresses from here into deep fairytale land! Look at the low, mid Atlantic, as it crosses, there is no energy coming up behind it... We'll know more very soon!

[pdiddy]

Joe B refers to an Icelandic block, and that could deliver cold here.

 

[Rocheydub]

Actually, no! It's trying to build a scandi high! All fun at that range of course. The vortex is anything but organised!

[Daniel*]

Fairly disturbed..

I reckon think there could be transitory snow almost anywhere in the next 10 days not exclusively for hills. No winter wonderland in sight - this is turning out to be quite a frustrating saga.

[stratty]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Fairly disturbed..

I reckon think there could be transitory snow almost anywhere in the next 10 days not exclusively for hills. No winter wonderland in sight - this is turning out to be quite a frustrating saga.

Yes - so close but yet so far - windy and cold rain  

[karlos1983]

Some nice GEFS Purbs, 16 &20 deserve a mention in the later part of the run. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=20&ech=300&mode=0&carte=1

[Eskimo]

Anyway, Ignoring bigsnow and getting back on topic. GFS shows transient snowfall for many in the far north, that should keep some people happy. 

[snowfish1]

5 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Anyway, Ignoring bigsnow and getting back on topic. GFS shows transient snowfall for many in the far north, that should keep some people happy. 

whilst the models deliver yet more cold rain and wind and it is where I've always lived when I was younger snowfall was much more plentiful in the South east after all this island ain't that massive  from top to toe !! It is what it is and synoptic ally we need an easterly wind to deliver to us or sustained northerly neither of which are currently being offered 

Edited January 31, 2016 by snowfish1
Added more

[legritter]

Come on gang ,fall in line and act like a team ,we possibly have some interesting model discussion coming up .

give it a few days and the charts could be very wintry ECM rolling out soon , relax and enjoy our very frustrating hobby """ cheers .

[Methuselah]

Come on, peeps - act your age?

[Captain Shortwave]

So around a dozen posts from the past half an hour have been hidden. Can we please keep things civil and on topic please. Posts specific to your own location are better off in the regional threads and posts more banter/moan related should be posted there. 

Thank you  

[Mucka]

21 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Anyway, Ignoring bigsnow and getting back on topic. GFS shows transient snowfall for many in the far north, that should keep some people happy. 

 

If GFS ppn predictions were worth the electricity they use I would of seen a foot of snow over the course of this winter instead of a few minutes of sleet that has been the reality. 

[Chris1986]

Gfs&ecm rather different out at 216hrs,  not liking the look of the steamroller on ecm...

[Singularity]

Best case 'realistic' scenario I can find based on current model projections for MJO is along the lines of the GFS 06z parallel:

 

This is possible if that low off the US peaks far enough west and then the south side is drawn by the NW-SE jet into Europe. This particular example isn't quite right for the UK though with not enough of a cold air undercut and the majority of the precipitation passing SW of the UK anyway.

 

Basically, while we have the NW-SE jet and ridges toward Greenland in between the lows, we need at least one trough to disrupt in order to get anything out of the setup across the places that have a harder job seeing snow (e.g. far SW, S).

The strength of the jet will be key. Once again ECM looks to be firing a very vigorous low our way for +192 based on the +168 just out:

That model really has it in for us at the moment! Worryingly, UKMO has the trigger low in a similar position and at similar intensity at +144 hours. GFS seems to hold it back a bit.

[Singularity]

Okay, not quite such a menace on this run. Even so, we could be seeing a spell of weather that is remarkable for the persistently low 500 mb heights, and surface pressure as well across the south. Now to see whether ECM can at least avoid producing another double-barrel, positively tilted trough for the final chart of the run. Such a thing pretty much blows away the mid-month cold spell chances; once the cold air spilling down across the central U.S. is carried out into the Atlantic, it's rocket fuel for the jet stream.

Increasingly I have a nasty feeling that the coldest (or at least most sustainably cold and wintry) weather of the month will be in the final week. I know Fergie has spoken of GloSea5 returning a more westerly pattern later in the month, but with the MJO expected to arrive in the best location for HLB close to our N and NW by then, I can't quite fathom how it's doing that. By that stage a raging vortex is an unlikely explanation due to the climatological weakening trend.

I'm not giving up on the mid-month potential just yet though. There's always a chance when you have the MJO waking up; it's something that gives the models a lot of trouble. That element should be resolved within the next 3-5 days. It can't come soon enough IMO - I'm getting pretty tired of this suspense.

 

Edit: Another shortwave south of Iceland, really? Could the North Atlantic Cold Pool be tipping the odds? It does make me wonder what we could have had mid-Jan had the SST pattern been the reverse, say.

Edited January 31, 2016 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

Better Ecm 12z by T+216 hours with the main body of the trough to our east with colder air starting to spread south, should be a good day 10 chart this evening!