Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Dunstable Snow]

Just had a click flick through the 12z GFS NH charts. The chart below is about as good as it gets with regard to a mid atlantic ridge trying to link up with heights to the north. Not surprisingly it is flattened within 24 hours and is heading for its comfortable place of safety in Europe. I had some hopes earlier on this month for at least a decent spell of sustainable nationwide cold but this has now disappeared. There is just far too much west to east energy being generated by a very cold and powerful vortex. As such I can't see beyond south west, west and north westerly flows with perhaps temporary more northerly incursions. None of these will be any good for snow that lasts more than 5 minutes (if we are lucky) anywhere south of the north midlands.

I do very much agree with SM's assessment. I also agree with other posts regarding GP's lack of posting and I would also add to that Tamara. Very knowledgeable people and very articulate with their posts. It has to be said though I will be amazed if suggested excitement regarding weather on the ground intimated by their posts earlier this month  materialises in February. With a month of winter to go I now feel very confident that we can write off the rest of winter as regards a decent nationwide snow and ice event. I also now consider that the warmest winter on record is 65/70% likely. I havn't seen one winter forecast that even suggested that  If I come over as irritable then Its because I am. Three completely crap winters in a row and I am slowly but surely loosing any joy in this hobby. I really do need to emigrate...

 

[blizzard81]

38 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Yes and also the lack of any update from GP, sadly speaks volumes aswell, And that is by no means a criticism,just an observation.

You don't have to qualify your point about GP as you are only stating a fact. I would go further by saying that I am a little disappointed (like many others I suspect) that GP has gone awol these last few weeks. It would have been nice to hear his latest thoughts with regards to the last month of winter.

[nick sussex]

More underwhelming output. The ECM has the pattern too far west with low pressure stuck over the UK and any Atlantic ridging is soon flattened at T240hrs.

The upstream pattern isn't too bad at day ten but we'll be still be saying this as we're munching our way through the Easter eggs.

Unless we see either a proper Greenland block or Scandi high with some deep cold to tap into then we're going to have to make do with the scraps off the buffet table and be chasing around a few hours of wet snow.

Its painful viewing! At this point with the Azores high displaced then February looks like being more average to cooler at times but without a proper block in a favourable location then that's really all I can see as being a positive.

Unless the MJO can do something favourable and any SSW can help deliver a change then we may aswell get our Winter 2015/16 Sucked T-Shirts on order.

Sorry to sound so pessimistic. I look forward to sounding less miserable at some point in the future!

 

Edited January 30, 2016 by nick sussex

[lukemc]

What about the stratospheric warming though? - from many of the posts on here this evening you get the impression that the following February is likely to go the way of February 1998 but AFAIK winter 1997/1998 did not have a stratospheric warming event but as predicted if we do get one in the next few days that could make a colder period more likely (but not guaranteed of course) - so I think the SSW could lead to something.  February has not even begun yet and I have a feeling the SSW could help things.

 

Luke 

[IDO]

41 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Yes and also the lack of any update from GP, sadly speaks volumes aswell, And that is by no means a criticism,just an observation.

I think GP is busy doing other things and he will update when time allows. It is still to early to dismiss his last update and it is always best to have a stewards enquiry once the Winter has ended so we can all learn from what is an unprecedented set up.

ECM at D10 beginning to show interest. We need this to develop rather than remain in FI: 

A strong EPO ridge, an Arctic High and the trop PV ripe for some forcing, whether from the strat, tropics or the MJO.

[lukemc]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

More underwhelming output. The ECM has the pattern too far west with low pressure stuck over the UK and any Atlantic ridging is soon flattened at T240hrs.

The upstream pattern isn't too bad at day ten but we'll be still be saying this as we're munching our way through the Easter eggs.

Unless we see either proper Greenland block or Scandi high with some deep cold to tap into then we're going to have to make do with the scraps off the buffet table and be chasing around a few hours of wet snow.

Its painful viewing! At this point with the Azores high displaced then February looks like being more average to cooler at times but without a proper block in a favourable location then that's really all I can see as being a positive.

Unless the MJO can do something favourable and any SSW can help deliver a change then we may aswell get our Winter 2015/16 Sucked T-Shirts on order.

Sorry to sound so pessimistic. I look forward to sounding less miserable at some point in the future!

 

Hi Nick,

 

What do you think the chance of the SSW doing us any favours I know it does not guarantee cold for us but it can shorten the odds on blocking which then leads to cold weather.  What is frustrating me like you I presume is what seems to be poor model output after poor model output (from a cold lovers point of view) I was expecting to see some improvements over this weekend but why are we getting dross all the time? I like excitement in the models rather than boredom, even if it all goes pear shaped for snow and cold.  I wonder were we are the the SSW this evening I know that the 18z and 00z runs did not have the split, does anyone know the score with the 12z strat models?

 

Luke  

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows polar maritime air spreading SE  through next tues / wed with wintry showers, especially to the northwest and night frosts returning for a time but what really interests me is later in the run through days 9 and 10 which still look very unsettled  but with rather colder conditions in the north spreading south by T+240 hours with 528 dam widespread by then and potentially looking colder still beyond day 10 as the complex slow moving UK trough pushes further east which would eventually enable arctic air to flood south down it's western flank and down across the uk. I think most coldies would agree this winter has been utter cr*p so far but perhaps February won't be!

[Dunstable Snow]

for the fourteenth time in the last seven days we have a day ten chart showing some interest..... I agree with IDO, the day 10 ECM chart does look interesting. Unfortunately I think we all know what day 9 will look like tomorrow.. I'm fed up and I havn't even had to suffer my football team playing today. Sorry mods if this should be in another thread

[blizzard81]

Just now, lukemc said:

Hi Nick,

 

What do you think the chance of the SSW doing us any favours I know it does not guarantee cold for us but it can shorten the odds on blocking which then leads to cold weather.  What is frustrating me like you I presume is what seems to be poor model output after poor model output (from a cold lovers point of view) I was expecting to see some improvements over this weekend but why are we getting dross all the time? I like excitement in the models rather than boredom, even if it all goes pear shaped for snow and cold.  I wonder were we are the the SSW this evening I know that the 18z and 00z runs did not have the split, does anyone know the score with the 12z strat models?

 

Luke  

Have a look on the strat thread. If it is quiet, this will go a long way to answering your question with regards to the 12z.

[ukpaul]

The one thing that hasn't transpired (yet) is a rise in heights to our west (or maybe east), that's what I find unfathomable at the moment. All the dominos are lined up and then the one that sets the whole thing in motion refuses to fall properly. Is it the jetstream/cold pool/ice melt that Steve M refers to? There sure is something putting a spanner in, it may even be the warming that, with the UK's typical luck, actually puts blocking anywhere but here. Whatever it is I passed on the grave news to my folks near a flood hit area that they can expect more of the same, it's like a sick, twisted joke now.

[SMU]

One thing I would add to my earlier post ( sorry not quite model related ) is that these 'new' feedback loops are making the anomalies that do form ( pos or neg ) so much more pronounced - then the double whammy with el nino this winter-

what it means for the future is more weather at the extreme ends of the spectrum - whether that be wind warmth rain ( & occasionally snow ) heat

etc

the UKs weather is getting ever more exciting - but incrementally ever warmer in winter....

 

s

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, lukemc said:

Hi Nick,

 

What do you think the chance of the SSW doing us any favours I know it does not guarantee cold for us but it can shorten the odds on blocking which then leads to cold weather.  What is frustrating me like you I presume is what seems to be poor model output after poor model output (from a cold lovers point of view) I was expecting to see some improvements over this weekend but why are we getting dross all the time? I like excitement in the models rather than boredom, even if it all goes pear shaped for snow and cold.  I wonder were we are the the SSW this evening I know that the 18z and 00z runs did not have the split, does anyone know the score with the 12z strat models?

 

Luke 

Hi Luke

Currently a minor SSW is likely but we're not sure of a major one and even then its a bit of a lottery. I think at this point looking at the movement of the MJO then if you were going to pick a more favourable timeframe it would be the last two weeks of February.

The outputs look pretty solid in terms of the next 10 days, then even if the upstream pattern improved with a bit more amplitude that would take more time to feed downstream.

At this point I think we're going to be left with two weeks to save this crxp winter. Historically end of Feb and early March can be quite interesting but its going to have to go something to make up for the rest of the winter.

[terrier]

So once again we are looking towards days 9 and 10 on the ecm. And how many times have we been here this winter. Looking at tonight output we can write the first week of Feb off as wet and windy again. Not holding out much hope  now for final month of winter. As Steve murr has said looks like another bust for this winter. Just hope we arent going to see this trend continue in the winters ahead.

[Singularity]

The lack of analogues for this winter has been a real pain, and with a SSW so uncertain due to having  a real mash-up of positive and negative signals for the season plus an unprecedented combination of forcing distribution, I've been forced to spend much of the past month watching the MJO and hoping that, by behaving in a rather unusual way for a strong El Nino - permitted by the interference with the usual El Nino forcing - it can add enough amplification to twist the odds in our favour.

It briefly achieved that mid-Jan despite the exceptionally strong state of the vortex, but has since been quiet for longer than I had hoped (I was hoping it'd be reaching phase 7/8 by week 2 of Feb, not just setting out in phase 4/5!). Unfortunately, computer modelling of the MJO has yet to become reliable enough to be able to use it to anticipate the onset of a new, significant event without uncertainty on the scale of weeks.

So it has never been more difficult to predict the weather patterns beyond a week or so ahead in time. Sure, we've seen some tasty cold charts go out of the window, but we've also seen some 'raging zonal' charts go the same way (in the run-up to the mid-Jan spell). 

As the climate continues to change at a crazy pace, classic phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina may become distorted beyond recognition on more and more occasions. Tropical forcing may continue to take on arrangements that until this year were in the realms of theoretical science. What a time to be alive - for better or worse.

 

Anyway, here and now, we're staring at the threat of a vigorous chain of potent Atlantic storms coming our way, the jet stream enhanced by a combination of the cold air spilling down into the U.S., an increased heat and moisture transport up the east U.S. coast that's associated with the El Nino forcing via the East Pacific*, and the North Atlantic Cold Pool which remains very much in place:

To escape from such a fate by the middle part of Feb, we need the jet to dive very far south indeed across the U.S. in order to disperse more of that cold air (increased solar irradiance, longer days), at which point we hope that the EP Nino Forcing is not too strong. At the moment the former looks achievable (pending MJO amp.) but the latter does concern me.

 

Let's face it, a lot of what I'm doing now is trying my best not to resort to just writing 'zonal pattern almost definitely the main mode through to late Feb' or something like that. That's not fun to read at all. I enjoy searching for those cold chances against the odds because I know that behind the scenes one must set the bar very low. Even if it's practically on the floor - which is where mine has been left having had only one morning of snow cover since mid-January 2013. My signature line says what it does for a reason!

 

*which reminds me - we're seeing the El Nino strengthen again at a time when the consensus of not long ago was for a steady decline to be setting in. Another complication! The event may even last right through 2016 as opposed to giving way to a La Nina by late summer! If so, then not only could 2016 break the global temp mean record by another notable margin, but 2017 would be in with a shot at climbing a notch higher.

Edited January 30, 2016 by Singularity

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please stick to discussing what the models outputs are 'showing' in here there is a winter/moan thread open, As some posts are more suited to there. Thanks.

[legritter]

Been watching charts and studying weather for many a year ,current output looks very interesting but as others have pointed out the carrot is usually right out in longer range .

but looking at todays output what is going on in the northern hemisphere is very unusual including the last several years ,this is where i have my Straw clutch ,we still have frigid arctic temperatures so i,m pretty sure somewhere down the line our time will come ,looks like the fair possibility now of seeing named storms into february as well ,i,m pretty confident that by the end of next weekend we will have a huge trough to our east but what follows it across from the west is still uncertain ,unless of course it manifests itself from the north ,if widespread snow does come in the uk  including south of M4 i shall be cracking open those STEllas ,hang on gang its still just about January  february can be brutal ,Gfs out soon we still have frigid arctic temperatures as in the polar regions .of course not at present in the uk .

Edited January 30, 2016 by legritter

[Timmytour]

The models have been showing the same type of weather to be delivered to the UK, but there is no agreement upon the mechanism.  That would suggest there are still changes afoot that the models haven't quite come to terms with.

I'm going out on a limb here. From GFS 18z onwards there will be a few model runs that bring the optimism flooding back into this place...Maybe more of a hopeful than a judgement call..... but it does seem that the models  this winter have taken us from high hopes to deep despair.

While in agreement with SM, his despair also gives me hope.....I remember, after a failed easterly his despair just prior to the weird yet wonderful spell of winter weather we enjoyed from mid Jan onwards in 2013....... I feel history will start repeating itself to some extent!!

[winterof79]

Let us see what plays out before declaring which weather modelling forecasting GODS are correct.

Ridiculous knee jerk reaction to what Feb/March has to offer.Stick with the METO for the time being.The Northern half of the UK is experiencing winter and will for the foreseeable.There will always be variables for our little Island.

[lukemc]

42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Hi Luke

Currently a minor SSW is likely but we're not sure of a major one and even then its a bit of a lottery. I think at this point looking at the movement of the MJO then if you were going to pick a more favourable timeframe it would be the last two weeks of February.

The outputs look pretty solid in terms of the next 10 days, then even if the upstream pattern improved with a bit more amplitude that would take more time to feed downstream.

At this point I think we're going to be left with two weeks to save this crxp winter. Historically end of Feb and early March can be quite interesting but its going to have to go something to make up for the rest of the winter.

Thanks for that Nick, just letting you know that Gavin Partridge in one of his latest video mentions that this El Nino is currently weakening do you think that could help us in February/March as well as the potential SSW - Nick I was listening to a documentary on El Nino on the BBC a few weeks ago and they said the El Nino's effect on UK and Europe is less than in some other parts of the world, but do you still see El Nino as a guilty party in this "poor" winter?

Luke
 

Edited January 30, 2016 by lukemc

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, lukemc said:

Thanks for that Nick, just letting you know that Gavin Partridge in one of his latest video mentions that this El Nino is currently weakening do you think that could help us in February/March as well as the potential SSW - Nick I was listening to a documentary on El Nino on the BBC a few weeks ago and they said the El Nino's effect on UK and Europe is less than in some other parts of the world, but do you still see El Nino as a guilty party in this "poor" winter?

Luke
 

Of course El Nino weakening does help but its coming from close to record levels. The El Nino IMO has been by far the biggest driver of this winter in terms of the mild wet conditions.  I'd keep an eye on the MJO because that's more likely to have a stronger impact with El Nino declining and that January colder spell was helped by the MJO movement.

Although we didn't see a proper Greenland block we still saw the MJO positive height anomaly in the Atlantic. The best we can hope for is an MJO/SSW combo driven change to the pattern. If that doesn't deliver some proper cold and snow to the UK then nothing will. That's really the last throw of the dice!

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, lukemc said:

What about the stratospheric warming though? - from many of the posts on here this evening you get the impression that the following February is likely to go the way of February 1998 but AFAIK winter 1997/1998 did not have a stratospheric warming event but as predicted if we do get one in the next few days that could make a colder period more likely (but not guaranteed of course) - so I think the SSW could lead to something.  February has not even begun yet and I have a feeling the SSW could help things.

 

Luke 

No indications at all at the moment that this February is going to be like that one in 1998. That was exceptionally mild and nothing in the ensembles suggest this. Also how many realise how dry that month was, south of the Border? Looks pretty wet at least for the first part of the month.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

One thing I would add to my earlier post ( sorry not quite model related ) is that these 'new' feedback loops are making the anomalies that do form ( pos or neg ) so much more pronounced - then the double whammy with el nino this winter-

what it means for the future is more weather at the extreme ends of the spectrum - whether that be wind warmth rain ( & occasionally snow ) heat

etc

the UKs weather is getting ever more exciting - but incrementally ever warmer in winter....

 

s

Steve

More extreme and 'rut' situations are synonymous with a much more meridional Jetstream due to solar state, the likes of which were not of 20th Century so composites would not verify??  Disappointing for UK indeed this winter but some very interesting anomalies have turned up and  imo will continue to do so. Also I think next 2 weeks will produce a tad more interest than is currently posted by many and let's see where we go.  New territory we enter

 

BFTP    

Edited January 30, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Man With Beard]

Some cheering up needed - though I agree with most of the posts above, GEM ensemble member 7 at T384 surely gives us hope

[law of averages]

Hi… long, long, long time lurker, reader of this great site

I don't pretend to know anything like the XPERTS on here, whose posts i like reading and are very informative to a beginner like me… but the weather will change at the drop of a hat… what the charts show say 2day… won't be the same in 2/3days time… could be better COLD/COLDER/VERY COLD or worse MILD/ATLANTIC TRAIN… anyway just had to say, so I could post lol

Ps… keep up the XCELLENT  POSTS, ste murr, polar maritime, nick sussex, frosty, BFTP

[Bullseye]

Only good or slightly better news I can find tonight..