Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea but we are getting the bigger picture here ECM was going for a 5 day cold spell out to 240hr just last night and GFS 1 day maybe 2 at the most who is right in your eyes if the charts verify as they are.

I would hold on a while before the models award giving ceremony because a lot more changes will occur since the charts in question are a week away!

[Duane S.]

24 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yea but we are getting the bigger picture here ECM was going for a 5 day cold spell out to 240hr just last night and GFS 1 day maybe 2 at the most who is right in your eyes if the charts verify as they are.

I think you may need to read my post again.

Putting aside the small fact that the charts in question are yet to not verify (or verify)...

1) In this particular instance, YES, the ECM will likely be proved incorrect with its over amplified output of the past couple of days.

2) And completely unconnected with #1, the GFS remains predominately useless...

[booferking]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would hold on a while before the models award giving ceremony because a lot more changes will occur since the charts in question are a week away!

I agree nothing set and stone i hope they flip back to what ECM was showing for the sake of us coldies.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I think you may need to read my post again.

Putting aside the small fact that the charts in question are yet to not verify (or verify)...

1) In this particular instance, YES, the ECM will likely be proved incorrect with its over amplified output of the past couple of days.

2) And completely unconnected with #1, the GFS remains predominately useless...

The last time I bothered with the verification stats, for ten-days' out, the GFS was about 2-3% worse than the ECM; which considering that the ECM itself was only somewhere around 30% accurate, the difference might be somewhat academic?

[Timmytour]

I'm hearing there's been reports of a seismic blast off the coast of New York this evening.......GP's torpedo?

When GFS picks up an idea and then drops it, I often think it's going to come back to it.  Not so sure with the ECM though.   Hope its the case this time however

[Captain Shortwave]

So GEFs extending on from the potential developing around 9/10 days from here which takes us into the second week of February.

      

So trough over or east of the UK with an extension into central Europe, the signal if anything strengthens later on with a marked area of positive heights pushing towards Greenland suggesting  that finally we could see a decent Atlantic ridge. 850s are generally a little below normal once the trough moves east of the UK and I would suspect that surface temperatures would fall into the slightly below average category. There is scope for an improvement on this as we go through the coming days.

[legritter]

Hello Gang ,i,v been around and reading our forum regular .

must admit i do feel at the moment that we could be looking at something interesting for us snow starved posters . first off todays charts show a real wild week ahead  very newsworthy weather on the way ,and we are very fast going through our Named storm list with G and H NOW being touted about .

Ecm still showing some wintry potential but as usual with the longer range charts its nearly always different the following run .

but looking like the jet will be digging further south so fingers crossed we see some lows move west to east further south and i,m sure this will put a smile on our winter faces i,v sent a memo to the main models for our big party in February and i,m sorry if your name is Barty  azores limpet slug ,warm sector spoiler ,or you have contacts or associations with the M4 corridoor you cant come .

cold highs channel lows sliders polar lows cold waves and baltic  blasters including torpeedos   All welcome .Well i,m looking forward to tonights Gfs run but wont be watching every frame , great forum and thanks to all the regular posters who take the effort to show charts and data ,right february  Bring it on ,cheers 

[bluearmy]

ECM eps continue to show nw Europe under a pretty marked low anomoly beyond day 10.  plenty of cold possibilities from that position. Plenty of wet ones too! 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ECM eps continue to show nw Europe under a pretty marked low anomoly beyond day 10.  plenty of cold possibilities from that position. Plenty of wet ones too! 

The GEFS seem to be hinting at this scenario to me for a few runs now, you can just see the trough getting further south, lets hope we can combine the 2.

[blizzard81]

Well, I have to admit that this winter has gone the way of the pear. The ecm downgrade today is the final straw for me. The ecm ops yesterday were the last chance saloon. Even the meto update is less appetising for cold weather fans. This winter is up there with the worst, lost count how many times I have been soaked to the bone going to or from work (including tonight). Absolutely abysmal. Ecm now does what the gfs used to do with fantasy island synoptics. The ops are supposed to be run at higher resolution so why has the ecm op and control been so totally inaccurate on a fair few ocassions this winter whilst the ensembles were far more accurate. The latest debacle being yesterday. Can anybody explain this?

Edited January 28, 2016 by blizzard81

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, I have to admit that this winter has gone the way of the pear. The ecm downgrade today is the final straw for me. The ecm ops yesterday were the last chance saloon. Even the meto update is less appetising for cold weather fans. This winter is up there with the worst, lost count how many times I have been soaked to the bone going to or from work (including tonight). Absolutely abysmal. Ecm now does what the gfs used to do with fantasy island synoptics. The ops are supposed to be run at higher resolution so why has the ecm op and control been so totally inaccurate on a fair few ocassions this winter whilst the ensembles were far more accurate. The latest debacle being yesterday. Can anybody explain this?

Yes, ensembles are designed to give a realistic spread of the solutions on offer, if your referring to the day 6-15 day range that is, that's what they are there for.

Your asking for trouble relying on op runs anything past day 10 certainly and in volatile situations past day 7.

Edited January 28, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[johnholmes]

On IPad so no charts but sourced from usual anomaly areas. Slowly over the last 2-3 days indications beginning to show the idea of trough in east of UK and ridging in Atlantic. No idea if this is some kind of reaction to high up in the atmosphere but others with more knowledge may be able to say, yes or no. Anyway the signs are developing in the 6 days plus time for a wave change.

Well my view for what it is worth.

Edited January 28, 2016 by johnholmes
Spelling

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, ensembles are designed to give a realistic spread of the solutions on offer, if your referring to the day 6-15 day range that is, that's what they are there for.

Your asking for trouble relying on op runs anything past day 10 certainly and in volatile situations past day 7.

Thanks for the reply. So I guess the ops and control runs should only be taken seriously up to day 5.

[fergieweather]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, ensembles are designed to give a realistic spread of the solutions on offer, if your referring to the day 6-15 day range that is, that's what they are there for.

Your asking for trouble relying on op runs anything past day 10 certainly and in volatile situations past day 7.

Absolutely - there should never be reliance or myopic attention given solely to deterministic output out at that sort of range. The current crop of 12z ECMWF ensembles offer a variety of routes forward by that stage (I dare say this evening's EC Monthly update will do likewise). There'll be varied run-to-run shenanigans in longer-range deterministic solutions until full assimilation of the stratospheric warming/PV displacement episode, with various models probably too eager to somewhat extrapolate the (more reliably modelled) cyclonic rinse-repeat train looming into nearer-term medium range, with climatological 'creep' always a latent bias even at the best of times.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Thanks for the reply. So I guess the ops and control runs should only be taken seriously up to day 5.

There is no hard and fast rule but I would always look through all of the individual ensemble members (where its possible to do so) from purely a forecasting point of view, the problem is that FI often begins even earlier when there is doubt over whether a blocked cold spell begins or a continuation of Atlantic driven weather carries on.

[damianslaw]

I always look at the overall trend and shape of the pattern over the northern hemisphere as to clues what may happen further down the line - some I feel today are not reading the signals very well. In tandem with Fergies post earlier and others, the set up looks increasingly better for a generally colder period of weather as we move into the second week of February - heights orientating SW into Greenland from the arctic weakening the PV, consequently the longwave trough is shifted into Scandi allowing heights to build north from the azores high - yes there is still a PV lobe showing over NE USA/E Canada - but a much weakened affair - end result a NW-SE aligned jet.

There are many positives for those who want colder weather in the longer term in this respect. In the reliable yes, quite frustrating for anyone wanting some drier colder weather, weak ridge development will come unstuck as trough action quickly pushes it aside, northern areas with height though will certainly see quite a bit of snow over the coming days - transitory though..

February traditionally sees the atlantic calm down, its been on full max turbo charge for 3 months now - all battery power comes to an end eventually...

 

[marksiwnc]

Slowly the models seem to be showing what Ian and the met have been saying for a few weeks (high central Atlantic and low over the eastern side of the UK. Wether we get a bit,loads or no snow I just hope it gets sunny and cold (maybe with snow showers for coastal areas)  will be the likely scenario after 13Feb ish.  Let's see if I'm right. What do you reckon @fergieweather??  Fair assessment?? 

[Singularity]

Well, ECM has moved toward GFS with respect to the Atlantic, while GFS has moved toward ECM with respect to the Arctic High.

Not bad agreement now up to +144, though GFS is still trying to make more of the transient ridge from the Azores ahead of the incoming trough.

Then... all hell breaks loose. The ridge into Greenland looks strong enough to act as a wall that troughs from Canada look like running into, causing disruption (northern half stalls out, southern half moves SE), but it appears that the sliding feature may then interact with the low near/over the UK, either causing the slider to develop substantially (GFS 12z) or the near-UK trough to gain a new lease of life (ECM 12z).

The way this pans out is actually very much like a west-based negative NAO setup. Sound familiar?

Basically there has long been this idea of an initially west-based neg. NAO early Feb which becomes increasingly east-based as the month progresses. This being largely driven by tropical forcing but also requiring the stratosphere not to work against it too much.

GFS loses sight in lower-res due to having dissipated the MJO signal. By contrast, ECM has finally started showing the onset of the cycle, albeit about 10 days from now:

I think that while this bigger picture has been developing in the models, we've been messed with a bit in the usual sort of ways; first by the possibility of that weak low propping up the ridge over Greenland and then developing over the UK as it engages cold air in our vicinity (which never looked like a strong probability as many on here did realise), and then by ECM's tendency to over-amplify which led to trough disruption happening too readily on the 00z run (sustaining a flicker of hope for landing a relatively early snow fix, particularly across more northern parts). To be fair to ECM, GFS' lateness to catch on to the strength of the Arctic High and its extension through Greenland hasn't helped with matters.

Sometimes its hard to take a Tamara-like approach and just look at the bigger picture all the time. Yet it has to be a whole lot less stressful! 

 

So after all that, the second week of Feb still looks a reasonable call for seeing colder conditions start to become more consistent, but how soon within that 7 day period? *Please Wait... Loading*  

[Eskimo]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

February traditionally sees the atlantic calm down, its been on full max turbo charge for 3 months now - all battery power comes to an end eventually...

 

Yeah in April & May and then comes alive again from June to September 

[nick sussex]

Well the models still playing about with shortwaves the GFS 18hrs run has one running east into the UK and the other coming south to effect Scotland and northern England.

The second one could bring some snow and the other one could deliver something wintry depending on how much cold air is in place at the time.

The Euro limpet high looks like it will finally be sent into exile!

The GFS has a promising start and then goes downhill as the PV moves back west. If the PV stays split then theres always the chance of something colder popping up, if it reforms then no chance.

Edited January 28, 2016 by nick sussex

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Absolutely - there should never be reliance or myopic attention given solely to deterministic output out at that sort of range. The current crop of 12z ECMWF ensembles offer a variety of routes forward by that stage (I dare say this evening's EC Monthly update will do likewise). There'll be varied run-to-run shenanigans in longer-range deterministic solutions until full assimilation of the stratospheric warming/PV displacement episode, with various models probably too eager to somewhat extrapolate the (more reliably modelled) cyclonic rinse-repeat train looming into nearer-term medium range, with climatological 'creep' always a latent bias even at the best of times.

Thanks Ian. However, most people on here want a little more than some poxy drab north westerly airflow (latest meto update) to make up for this energy sapping excuse for a winter. Or are you coyly suggesting that the rest of this winter does indeed have a little more than this to offer?  

[swilliam]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Thanks Ian. However, most people on here want a little more than some poxy drab north westerly airflow (latest meto update) to make up for this energy sapping excuse for a winter. Or are you coyly suggesting that the rest of this winter does indeed have a little more than this to offer?  

If you read his post it says that the mean flow direction will change to more NW'ly so an average colder. He also states that this gives the possibility of N'ly outbreaks and more significant cold. However it is too far away for something like this to show up on the models yet and is only a possibility. Hope this clarifies it for you. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Keep an eye on the JMA, not to be discounted.  We are entering a volatile period where we may get a piece the PV sink down towards us.   We have an idea of the way ahead but the models can't tell us exactly so let's see it unfold.  All I feel is that we won't be waiting until mid Feb for a NW'ly flow...indeed we could be having something as interesting as a part of the PV over us and we won't be talking ONLY of northern hills getting snow

BFTP 

Edited January 28, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Derbyshire Snow]

I dont know what happened to my last post, but here goes again.

This latest run from the GFS shows the atlantic well in charge with a strong jet stream flowing throughout and unfortunately at the end of the run the jet trends back north. We do once again have some heights developing around and over Greenland mid run but not strong enough. AO and particularily NAO still positive in the next 7 to 10 days.

Its good to see the Euro high displaced but is now showing late  in the run, to have transferred south/southwest of the UK. Still not a good position

However some Northern areas early next week according to most models , particularly on the hills, should get some snow during the passing of polar maritime air.

[TomDav]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Keep an eye on the JMA, not to be discounted.  We are entering a volatile period where we may get a piece the PV sink down towards us.   We have an idea of the way ahead but the models can't tell us exactly so let's see it unfold.  All I feel is that we won't be waiting until mid Feb for a NW'ly flow

 

BFTP 

I believe the JMA is highly regarded for its modelling of the strat, not sure about trop interactions though