Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[IDO]

The models have been consistent since last week and GFS remains that way up till D15, a strong zonal setup. There will be a slow down at times as the strong PV moves from a to b then back again, but the underlying signal is a westerly zonal flow. During that slow down room for the Azores ridge to maybe build over the UK before the following trough follows through.

D10 three models: 

Variations on a strong theme, with differences in the amplitude of the mini trough/ridge combos. So PM shots for the north but that setup pretty useless for winter weather further south as the London 2m temps suggest:

  GEFS D16 Mean: 

Looks above average as a whole for the rest of Jan and dropping to average for the start of Feb (subject to tweaks at this range). ^^^ The GEFS D16 mean is the worse winter setup you could get, PV lobe to the NW, Icelandic Low and an Azores /Euro heights positive anomaly.

CFS has been consistent (whether it will be right or wrong, though more the former if ECM is a guide) with the pattern the GFS is suggesting and it goes on in w3 and w4 to build the Euro heights as the PV wanes. It is not seeing any Atlantic meridional flow or a SSW:

The MJO update suggests that currently the signal is weak, though they expect it to rise, but with other background signals confidence is low as to its effect in the next two weeks assuming the signal is clean: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

Dr Cohen's update suggests a milder zonal outlook for the next 3-4 weeks with a possible SSW around the 30 day mark: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

It is certainly looking like a cool Spring rather than a cold end to Winter. We know once these zonal patterns setup they are difficult to dislodge, recent winter's are testament to that. The MJO signal is being interfered with by ongoing KW activity and whether that can overide a locked in pattern is open to debate. The much promised SSW keeps being delayed and really will be coming too late for many. A pessimistic outlook but realistic, though things may change more positively after D10-D15, though a blocked cold pattern still remains unlikely till the SSW. Those in the north should get closer to their average January cold shots but for south of Birmingham the Jan CET of +1.3 c above average says it all!

Edited January 26, 2016 by IDO

[karlos1983]

47 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just beginning to sense some interest for coldies (away from elevation and Scotland) in a couple weeks time.  Could be pretty wild though. 

I'm liking your little raised eyebrows expectation lifting posts BA. Seems encouraging if my eyes do not deceive me.

[Frosty.]

25 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes Phil, Seems to be the running trend of late with cold Pm shots from the N/W giving a wintry mix at times especially for the North & elevated areas. With some big dumpings expected in the Highlands in these set-ups.

 

Saturday is still looking cold/wintry with gales in the North and the snow risk extending to the North Midlands.

Yes PM it's better than yesterday's 00z output which made for depressing reading on here.. and then things improved by the 12z, especially the Ecm. Colder shots from the w / nw is much nicer than persistent mild mush!

[karlos1983]

57 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Large -ve height anomaly over NE Atlantic and the U.K. through much of the run. Aleutian low anomaly, west Canadian ridge, eastern US trough also dominate again after day 10 after a temporary reversal to western U.S trough / Eastern U.S. ridge. There is +heights over the Arctic though for much of the run. But the general theme looks unsettled through much of Feb.

The EC32 850mb temp anomalies suggest -ve departures over much of the N Atlantic and into the UK at times through much of the run though, so it's not particularly mild for us.

 

I seem to remember the Met saying they would probably ignore the ec32 if it doesn't show what their longer range model is showing, at least for the time being. But I don't remember the detail of the post from Ian, as in, it could be that it's already in agreement, I'm not sure. I'll go look back and see if I can find the post.

[blizzard81]

Some very negative posts on here this morning which is a little bewildering! Although there are no extreme cold solutions in the mix, the fact remains that this morning's outputs are much better than yesterday morning's. Let that trend continue (which I think it will) and this forum will be a whole lot happier by the end of this week.

[Snow Dayz]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Some very negative posts on here this morning which is a little bewildering! Although there are no extreme cold solutions in the mix, the fact remains that this morning's outputs are much better than yesterday morning's. Let that trend continue (which I think it will) and this forum will be a whole lot happier by the end of this week.

Yep I totally agree things have improved maybe a real change may turn up in the models soon

[Frosty.]

Yes I'm surprised by the negativity although perhaps it's just imby because for the UK in general, the Ecm 00z is showing some colder shots through the next 10 days + with occasional wintry ppn bringing a chance of snow, especially further north and on hills with night frosts between milder, wet and windy spells..it's not all doom and gloom by any means and beyond T+240 the ecm shows potential for significantly more wintry weather

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I'm surprised by the negativity although perhaps it's just imby because for the UK in general, the Ecm 00z is showing some colder shots through the next 10 days + with occasional wintry ppn bringing a chance of snow, especially further north and on hills with night frosts between milder, wet and windy spells..it's not all doom and gloom by any means and beyond T+240 the ecm shows potential for significantly more wintry weather

I'm sure most up north are not negative.

but anyone midlands south are going to be very negative as winter looks unlikely.

dreadful out look unless a real straight Arctic northerly comes along then southern southeastern and southwest look likely to have continued cold wet windy at times with flooding possible.

its very dire for the areas I've singled out.

ineffective nw flow sorry just don't float my boat one bit.

the models are very much in agreement of a rather strong vortex being stretched and displaced but not enough to produce a block in an ideal area instead the blocks in other areas of the Arctic are the reason for a none starter here in the south.

towel thrown in winter is over down here I'm fairly confident of that.

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 26TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A deep depression is moving NE near to the NW of Scotland pushing troughs quickly East and more slowly South becoming slow moving over Southern England later while a new trough crosses East over the North tomorrow before it too moves South across Southern Britain followed by a colder and more showery WNW flow late tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges between 8000ft over the SE of England falling to 4000ft over Scotland and Northern England and Ireland tomorrow. Some snowfall can be expected across Northern mountains tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild especially at first but some colder spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow blowing NE across the UK over the coming days before strengthening further into a West to East corridor across the UK by the weekend. The flow then becomes somewhat less strong for a time next week when it appears more undulating briefly before it strengthens again at a further South latitude at around 50deg North late in the period still travelling West to East.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a continuing period of very volatile weather across the UK alternating between wet and very windy conditions mixed with colder brighter weather with showers, wintry at times. The worst of the weather seems to be for the rest of this week and again towards the end of the period while there may be less wind and rain for a time, especially across the South next week when High pressure is shown to move in close to the South of the UK for a time.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is similar in type to the Operational Run though more disruption between Low pressure areas is shown over the second week when things turn altogether colder at times with the risk of more wintry precipitation very much greater then as cold air gets and not just in the North. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The most depressing message from the Ensemble pack this morning is that all the clusters suggest unsettled and windy weather still very present across the UK in 14 days. There is a stronger consensus though that colder air from the NW is much more representative within the clusters this morning.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a very windy and potentially stormy period at times as strong westerly winds across the UK with low pressure close to the North. There is a marked colder snap shown too this morning towards the weekend with Wintry showers coming all the way down to sea level for a time at the weekend almost anywhere must mostly towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show plenty of troughs sometimes slow moving across the South at first and bringing spells of rain, heavy and prolonged in places and interrupted by rather colder spells in the North with showers, turning wintry at times over the hills with a repeat process of tomorrows weather system looking likely again on Friday before colder air reaches all parts with showers turning wintry for all areas at times over the hills to start the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also maintains Atlantic domination in the weather over the UK through the next 10 days with repetitive spells of rain and strong winds alternating with relatively short colder spells, these especially but not exclusively over the North where wintry showers are likely between rain bands. The pattern looks largely unchanged at Day 10.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a volatile and windy spell of weather with spells of rain and strong winds with colder showery spells in between especially later in the run and in the North. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
 

ECM ECM today looks very disturbed again this morning with wet and windy conditions frequently over the next 10 days culminating at Day 10 with quite a vicious storm approaching the NW. In between the wet and windy spells remain short periods of brighter and more showery spells when wintry showers may affect the higher ground at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the main vortex of Low pressure close to Scotland with westerly winds across the UK ensuring by far the biggest message retained as more rain and strong winds at times for all with temperatures sliding down somewhat as the UK lies on the colder side of the Jet Stream by then

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards colder conditions later as Low pressure and the Jet Stream drift somewhat further South than currently.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.3 pts to GFS and UKMO at 88.5 pts each. Then at 8 Days ECM has taken over the leading spot from GFS with 67.0 pts to 66.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.1 pts to 48.1 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Another day and another day of unrelenting output that says the Atlantic is in total domination of our little patch of the world again this morning. With the day to day details largely irrelevant all that can be said is that all areas of the UK will endure many more spells of wet and windy weather across the next few weeks. If anything this morning the rise of pressure expected towards the South of the UK later next week shown in yesterday's output has been largely removed this morning and the chance of more deep depression running on a slightly more Southerly latitude looks very possible this morning. This would of course mean more rain but could also mean that colder air would be injected into the airflows across the UK at times with snow becoming very possible at times especially in the North and maybe hills of the South too. If I look longer term I am still waiting for cross model support for the anticipated pressure rise across the Atlantic to show it's hand in the extended outlooks and GFS do show some disruption to the stormy spell later in Week 2 but a lot of expansion on this theme will have to be shown in the upcoming runs before I look at this with much conviction. Conversely with ECM in rampant mood towards  continued wet and windy weather in 10 days time it maybe a while yet before we can look forwards to anything reliably colder, drier and more wintry.    

Next Update Wednesday January 27th 2016 from 09:00

[Derbyshire Snow]

 Morning,

Quick look at models and very uninspiring for sustained  cold over the next 2 weeks from any source apart from temporary cold blasts from the north west that are unlikely to give snow south of Scotland. Teleconnections  not brilliant, SSW needed to dramatically alter this winter. Looking to see if any improvements this evening. Bye 

[cornish snow]

18 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

I'm sure most up north are not negative.

but anyone midlands south are going to be very negative as winter looks unlikely.

dreadful out look unless a real straight Arctic northerly comes along then southern southeastern and southwest look likely to have continued cold wet windy at times with flooding possible.

its very dire for the areas I've singled out.

ineffective nw flow sorry just don't float my boat one bit.

the models are very much in agreement of a rather strong vortex being stretched and displaced but not enough to produce a block in an ideal area instead the blocks in other areas of the Arctic are the reason for a none starter here in the south.

towel thrown in winter is over down here I'm fairly confident of that.

 

It's all relative though,isn't it.

Yes,if your looking for minus double digits with foot long icicles,hanging off the gutters,then your probably right.

But,if like me,you would be happy with a couple of snow shower's and an hours sledging,then no,winter's not over.

Feb hasn't even begun yet,plenty of time to see some white stuff.

People need to be realistic,this is the U.K,it will be mostly mild,most winter's.

One of the best snowfall's recently,here,was 28th feb 2004. Feb 28th is STILL, 5 weeks away,keep the faith.

[snow freak]

1 hour ago, Snow Dayz said:

Yep I totally agree things have improved maybe a real change may turn up in the models soon

i think we can accept the negativity as this winter there has not been much to be positive about.

[IDO]

59 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Some very negative posts on here this morning which is a little bewildering! Although there are no extreme cold solutions in the mix, the fact remains that this morning's outputs are much better than yesterday morning's. Let that trend continue (which I think it will) and this forum will be a whole lot happier by the end of this week.

Wind and cold rain for most that live south of the Pennines is not an improvement, to be honest yesterday was better for that area as least we would have dry cool days. You expect, even in dire Winters snow for Northern hills and Scotland, so when that starts showing up it is not a major breakthrough in the weather pattern, it's just what you should expect late Jan and early Feb. To save this winter we need HLB'ing and that has no signal for the next two weeks and the LR are doubtful to week 4, that is what most are downbeat about. 

ECM mean at D10 for the UK pretty uninspiring and looking similar to the GEFS:  

Nothing redeeming about that.

However Winter is not over yet, just the next two weeks look poor for most south of Manchester, and as this is Prime Winter time when everything can work in your favour for wintry prospects it is a bit of a downer. As we move into Feb the margin of error becomes higher day by day, and yes we have had snow in Feb, but it is still low probability when you compare when we didn't. The minor SSW should shake things up after mid-Feb and maybe that will work in our favour, though no guarantee of that.

 

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

 

towel thrown in winter is over down here I'm fairly confident of that.

 

It's too early to be throwing towels in the ring, potential wintry weather can last well into march as we saw in 2013. I'm trying to keep spirits up in this forum but it seems I've failed..but I won't give up! The models are showing PM shots and I have hopes for mid Atlantic ridging towards mid February onwards as long as the experts keep that dream alive!

[warrenb]

No offence to anyone, but surely by it's nature a Mean would bring it toward climatological norms unless there was a huge consensus. Therefore Means are not useless, but far from informative.

[Harsh Climate]

I'm happy with this mornings output, for the first 6/7 days we see small polar maritime shots from the northwest with the odd day of wintry showers/snow high ground, with days 7-12 the polar maritime shots seem to get bigger and longer lasting, with showers turning increasingly to sleet/snow in many places with the chance of some transient accumulations even to low ground.

Yes this may not be the holy grail greeny high or beast from the east but many of us especially the closer to the north west you are could see some snow falling from the sky and a suprise transient snowfall. Also when you get heavy showers from the north west they can be frequent, contain thunder and lightning and when the precipitation does turn to snow you can get a couple of inches in no time due to high snowfall rates.

After that I think there will be some sort of stratospheric warming (mid februrary) and we could see a good block develop with some real winter weather from the North or east. Remember even in mid march you can get some real dumpings of snow that doesn't melt too quick/if at all if there's cloud blocking the sun through the day time. 

March 2013 the perfect example, we had hardly any snow melt for nearly a week! Keep the faith 

[IDO]

7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

No offence to anyone, but surely by it's nature a Mean would bring it toward climatological norms unless there was a huge consensus. Therefore Means are not useless, but far from informative.

No, the mean is from the ensembles for that run and if they are not picking up anything but a westerly zonal flow then the mean will reflect that. Looking at the D10 ECM mean, and obviously without cluster information, it is apparent that the ensembles are in strong support of the current predicted pattern, though of course variations on the theme cannot be ruled out.

[Frank Trough]

12 minutes ago, IDO said:

No, the mean is from the ensembles for that run and if they are not picking up anything but a westerly zonal flow then the mean will reflect that. Looking at the D10 ECM mean, and obviously without cluster information, it is apparent that the ensembles are in strong support of the current predicted pattern, though of course variations on the theme cannot be ruled out.

Out of interest, how often do day 16 mean charts show anything other than what could be called a "westerly pattern"?

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I seem to remember the Met saying they would probably ignore the ec32 if it doesn't show what their longer range model is showing, at least for the time being. But I don't remember the detail of the post from Ian, as in, it could be that it's already in agreement, I'm not sure. I'll go look back and see if I can find the post.

Yes, the EC32 certainly shouldn't be relied on past day 10, I suppose the EC32 may change on the next update on Friday or subsequent few updates if there is a change in tropical oscillations and/or modelling of the stratosphere, which is certainly a posibility over the next few weeks. A SSW and/or coherent movement of the MJO to colder phases would certainly cause a big pattern change, it's just a case of if and when for now.

I am encouraged by the signal from the EPS again on the 00z run of NO euro +height anomaly in the means past day 8, with the big -ve height anomaly over the UK digging deeper into western Europe towards day 15 whilst a +height anomaly appears over the Atlantic too. 

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by Nick F

[MP-R]

Well the GFS 00Z was quite often showing Pm air digging south into February, with brief blasts this Thursday, Saturday, 03rd/04th and 07th-09th. If it went further out, it almost looks like it would become a northerly by the 10th onwards. While this is nothing special, and in fact less than expected for the time of year, it would at least bring a much brighter and more seasonal form of zonal conditions resembling more last winter which was basically run by Pm zonality - snow showers in the north, more of a wintry mix further south.

It will be interesting to see what the 06Z shows.

[Hillockpeter]

Is the EC32 output available for free? Link?  Thanks.

[Liam J]

29 minutes ago, IDO said:

However Winter is not over yet, just the next two weeks look poor for most south of Manchester, and as this is Prime Winter time when everything can work in your favour for wintry prospects it is a bit of a downer. As we move into Feb the margin of error becomes higher day by day, and yes we have had snow in Feb, but it is still low probability when you compare when we didn't. The minor SSW should shake things up after mid-Feb and maybe that will work in our favour, though no guarantee of that.

 

When cold and snowy weather is actually showing you don't provide the same level of model analysis (if at all) but seem to take pleasure in making detailed doom and gloom posts writing off wintry weather prospects weeks at a time!

As we move into February there is still every chance of a cold and snowy period and even in March you cannot rule it out. There has been some very wintry weather in February before and some good snowfall events have occurred during that month and more recently March (although not ideal) has shown us that we shouldn't give up hope, plenty of time left if everything falls into place and we have plenty of time left for that to happen imo. 

 

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Hillockpeter said:

Is the EC32 output available for free? Link?  Thanks.

No not to my knowledge 

[Abyss]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

As we move into Feb the margin of error becomes higher day by day, and yes we have had snow in Feb, but it is still low probability when you compare when we didn't. The minor SSW should shake things up after mid-Feb and maybe that will work in our favour, though no guarantee of that.

 

February is the second coldest month of the year and the second snowiest after January so it's more likely to snow than in December. "yes we have had snow in Feb, but it is still low probability when you compare when we didn't." You can say that about any time during WInter/Spring. The day by day post is a tad extreme too

Edited January 26, 2016 by -Bomber-

[Essex snowman]

I'm with frosty still plenty of time to get snow and ice till end of March so stop being so negative