Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[northwestsnow]

Must admit ones patience and hope is ever so slowly beginning to dwindle.I really thought we would be seeing a slowing down of that horrid jet and attendant PV as we head into Feb but still no sign of that happening anytime soon.

The GFS is a horror show and ECM isnt really all that different out to day 10.

After a PV dominated Nov Dec and Jan surely Feb wont go the same way?

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts have been hidden. Can we please only discuss what the models are showing in here, There is a moaning thread open and a general winter thread.

Thanks.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY JAN 25TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A trough of Low pressure will move East across the UK today followed by a more vigorous Low pressure area moving past the NW of Scotland tomorrow and accompanied by a series of troughs across all areas as well tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles begins close to 10000ft today falling behind a cold front to nearer 5000ft and then rising again through tomorrow as milder SW winds return. Little if any significant snow is expected across the UK today or tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild especially at first but some colder spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow remaining strong or very strong over the next few weeks. It's direction will settle West to East across the UK within the next few days, with a very strong core across Scotland for a time next weekend before the flow remains in situ if slightly weaker next week and then right at the end turning to a more Northerly latitude for a time before turning cyclonic and weak near the West of the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today continues to show Westerly winds across the UK, strong at times and bringing spells of rain and showers through much of the period. Some shorter colder spells with showers, wintry on hills remains likely but no sustained cold weather is shown. The weather changes type at the end of the second week as High pressure moves into the UK from the South and SW settling things down with frost and fog at night.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar to the Operational in theme today with alternating spells of wind and rain or showers at times, wintry on hills especially in the North. Then on this run too High pressure is shown to build strongly across the UK at the end of Week 2 with colder weather but dry weather too with frost and fog becoming much more prevalent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are showing the greatest chance being for winds blowing from a West or NW direction with High pressure down to the SW. Rain or showers and snow on hills look very likely for many but some of the clusters show High pressure closer in to the UK either from the South or West with attendant drier conditions. It is though just a 40% group who suggest this pattern with the greatest group supporting High pressure fiurther out to the SW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a very windy and relatively mild working week with spells of rain, heavy and prolonged at times especially tomorrow and again towards Friday. Then through the weekend a colder interlude will bring wintry showers to many even on the hills of the South for a time in a blustery NW wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show plenty of troughs sometimes slow moving across the South and bringing spells of rain, heavy and prolonged in places and interrupted by rather colder spells in the North with showers, turning wintry at times over the hills with a repeat process of tomorrows weather system looking likely again on Friday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also maintains Atlantic domination in the weather over the UK through the next 10 days with repetitive spells of rain and strong winds alternating with relatively short colder spells, these especially over the North where wintry showers are likely between rain bands. The pattern looks largely unchanged at Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif
NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows a flat pattern with strong Westerly winds throughout the coming week with fronts moving quickly East in the flow, each delivering a sometimes heavy spell of rain with brief periods of showers and colder interludes in between. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif
ECM ECM today looks very mobile yet again with details largely irrelevant in the otherwise mix of spells of rain and showers with temperatures fluctuating from just above to just below average in the North at times. Strong winds this week moderate somewhat next week as the influence of High pressure to the South attempts to make more influence on at least the South of the UK later in an otherwise continuing Westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the main vortex of Low pressure having shifted across to Scandinavia with an indication of less Low pressure to the NW and more High pressure down to the South. The main theme of the chart does still suggest Westerly winds with rain or showers at times though with no real pressure shown from either the cold to the North or mild from the South to change the pattern much from that currently

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards slightly less mild conditions at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to GFS at 88.5 pts then UKMO at 88.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has taken over the leading spot from GFS with 66.8 pts to 66.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.6 pts to 47.9 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   No real change in the outputs shown today between the models with just GFS at the end of the run showing a more coherent attempt of more settled weather conditions at the end of the two week period as High pressure builds up across the UK from the SW bringing a change to dry, bright and chilly weather with night frosts and fog patches. The rest of the output including GFS up to that time continues to paint a largely unsettled and windy spell of weather to come with fast moving bands of rain and showers including alternating temperatures between slightly milder than average temperatures to slightly below average temperatures in the North. In the showery spells some snowfall can be expected across the hills even in the South at times but with any colder interludes expected to be swept away East with consumate ease no suatined wintry weather for anyone looks likely. Winds will often be strong with gales very likely in exposure so it might not always feel as mild as the mercury suggests. Nevertheless, it looks unlikely that Winter as we would like it is likely anytime soon so I'm afraid we must batten down the hatches for the possibility of more troublesome rainfall and more traditional Winter's weather over the UK over the next few weeks at least and with the models refusing to decrease heights to the South it could be some while before we see a strong surge of cold air from the North that some experts and longer term forecasts suggest.   

Next Update Tuesday January 26th 2016 from 09:00 

[mb018538]

Very quiet here which can only mean one thing.....depressingly bad charts!

Nothing much to add today, looking poor for the next 10 days at least. We really are approaching crunch time here. If nothing starts to appear in the long term by the time we're into the first week of February, you can start writing the obituaries for winter 15/16. One that will be remembered....but for the wrong reasons!

[mushymanrob]

quite interesting i think...

large upper trough over scandinavia (well done those who predicted that), large high to our south... the east/west battleground is common in winter (between cold continental air from the east, mild atlantic air from the west) , well here we will get a north/south battle. the anticyclone trying to pump very mild air northwards and over the uk, the trough trying to flood the uk with polar notherlies.

wet and windy if the status quo remains, but which pressure will give way first? if the southern high gives way, we will get much more colder northerly sourced air. if the scandinavian trough gives way, the southern high will 'win' and flood the uk with more mild air.

its not game over for cold weather fans by any means, but that jet has to alter and high decline which is possible.

[Nick F]

Well it's a real kick in the teeth that we are back in the exceptionally mild conditions, the deep low that brought blizzards to eastern U.S. at the weekend brushing past NW Scotland tomorrow bringing mild SWly gales and heavy rain followed by trailing systems with more rain just to add insult to injury - which is probably why it's subdued in the MOD atm.

00z GFS and ECM hinted at a brief snowy window for Saturday for northern England northwards as cold air digs south for a time, snow perhaps to low levels across Scotland and higher ground for northern England, though 00z GFS op suggests to lower levels perhaps for northern England too:

 

Looking ahead, there are signs on the EC and GFS of the AO trending negative again, the 00z GFS op looks a bit of an outlier towards sustaining this trend against the 00z GEFS on the graph below (Weatherbell)

On the 00z EC, 500mb shows the height rises over the arctic

Looking at the extended 00z EPS mean, negative height anomaly in the means centred just north of the UK at day 10 drops south over the UK towards day 15 and actually the anomaly amplifies down in the scale of negative anomalies - which is quite unusual as you go further out in time. So this maybe a signal for cold air to shift south past day 10. Whether this is a trop response to the displacement of the strat vortex towards Scandi/Nern Russia - it's hard to to tell though I'm increasingly believing that this is not just coincidence and that there is some coupling going on.

As I mentioned in the strat thread, the 150 hPa level on the Berlin EC charts shows a shift of one vortex of a dipolar PV from Greenland to Svalbard, while expanding south ...

Furthermore, there are hints from a few models of the MJO coming out of the circle of death (COD) into a warm phase of 4, but perhaps moving through towards 7 in February, combine this with the strat displacement signal - it could be the catalyst for pattern change as we head through February - though a SSW is not apparent yet and a displacement of a strong PV may not be favourable to change the pattern for the UK unless we see changes in the trop from other drivers.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Nick F

[Singularity]

As forewarned, the charts for the 1st week of Feb are indeed straining the nerves of a great many on here. It's entirely understandable given what we've been through this winter, and the sense of time running out that tends to be associated with Feb (though it should be 2nd half at the earliest really) especially for those in the far south.

The main interest today is with developments across the U.S. from around +192 but in particular +216 to +240 and what that means down the line.

Basically, we see a change from that rapid-fire chain of disturbances running up the Eastern Seaboard and developing in the western N. Atlantic to throw the Azores High back east for a time until the low has moved east to our location.

Replacing that theme is a low developing across the central U.S. which coincides with the amplification propagating from the Pacific. So it is that we see a marked break in the jet stream with a ridge building poleward.

GFS almost has this feature doing the trick for us, but remains too progressive. This is where the likelihood of that progressiveness being toned down works in our favour. In fact it wouldn't surprise me to see the result being that west-based Neg NAO at first before a drift eastward over the following few days.

No 'horror show' here, just a 'close but no cigar'.

It does try the patience I know, but it looks a big ask to get one of those lows coming up the Eastern Seaboard to stall out and throw up a ridge ahead of it, and even if that did happen it risks being too far east anyway. The only real chance within the 10 day range relies on the MJO forcing changes to such an extent that the train of lows is shut down sooner than currently being modelled.

[booferking]

The Euro slug just keeps popping up every run no getting rid of it, its here to stay so enjoy the mild temperatures there he to stay with short interludes of cooler weather to the North, North West.

 

[swilliam]

At the least the GEM is showing what is possible if the PV clears away enough eastwards and the daughter vortex if far enough W as NS has been saying.

[Nick F]

After 16.5C in western Scotland, GFS suggesting it will feel more seasonal this Saturday

 

Given the fears, alluded by Chino in the strat thread, that a displaced strong strat PV may not be enough, without a SSW, unless the PV weakens, to to save this non-descript winter for many cold and snow-wise, it looks like we will have to rely on changes in the troposphere created by more favourable MJO signal and/or GWO phase, both of which are a long way off of getting in the right position, if they do at all, to force change. 

EPS mean dropping the -ve height anomaly south across the UK in the extended range 10 is the only positive for now that I can see going forward - as it would at least indicate more seasonal conditions as colder as moves further south.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Nick F

[mb018538]

Longer term GFS again hinting at high pressure starting to dominate.....though we've been here before. What's to say another steamroller low comes off the eastern seaboard and wreaks havoc with everything further down the line. I'd take a period of dry weather though!

[wishingforsnow]

BBC have started to hint at 'something colder' for next month for the first time for signals based on their long range models: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Whether they will be bullish about it and it will materialise or nothing will happen and they drop this idea has yet to be seen

[phil nw.]

A complete Strat.warming forecast has never shown so we are relying on the weakening and displacement of the PV towards Scandinavia for any chance of that Arctic cold coming south.

We can see +ve hts.developing upstream later over Canada

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=1&type=0&archive=0

The hope is this feeds downstream with a weaker more amplified jet coming off the e.seaboard.

This is after this zonal period of wet and windy weather as the PV shifts across.It is as ever it seems another hope añd wait period to see if the tropical forcings work in our favour.

 

 

[Singularity]

There's a reason why I've been going on about the tropical forcing a lot more than the stratosphere, though I'm not writing off the idea that the displacement could at least lend a hand at times. The models are indicating that after a displacement toward Eurasia around 2nd-5th Feb, which may help with getting a more meridional jet pattern across the U.S. and then Atlantic for a time.

Beyond this, GFS has been suggesting a new, stronger bout of strat. warming that causes the vortex to stretch toward Greenland. At this point, the warming either moves through the U.S. and pushes it back toward Eurasia, or the vortex starts to split - at least at the lower levels - which would produce unpredictable results due to uncertainties on where exactly the 'daughter vortex' would end up.

The far-reaches of the last two GFS det. runs show the two scenarios:

 

This is all very well, but I have major trust issues with the longer-term signals in both the trop. and strat. from the models, mostly due to the struggle they are having capturing the effect of the MJO.

The MJO seems likely to kick off within the next week and as the models slowly but surely get to grips with that, I expect to see more promise from the trop-based forcing first half of Feb, and some change to the strat. charts for the run-up to mid-Feb as well. I know the vortex is looking to put up a fight, but let's not forget that Feb typically sees a weakening trend especially during El Nino winters.

I wish I could call for major high-lat blocking to be in place by the end of the first week of Feb but that seems very much a long-shot. As it is, if we don't see a SSW such a thing may not be a feature of this winter and instead we'll be relying on a more 'local' blocking feature to the W and NW, sustained by a high AAM orbit (for which the MJO amplification is an important development).

It's a shame GP has gone so quiet as I am having to sail this ship with very few hands on deck at the moment. 

 

In the meantime, that GEM outcome is a good spot by swilliam. It seems to get there by merging the central-U.S. disturbance with a would-be Eastern Seaboard low to produce a compromise that throws up a decent ridge toward Greenland. Not ideal, but better than nothing.

[wishingforsnow]

7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

A complete Strat.warming forecast has never shown so we are relying on the weakening and displacement of the PV towards Scandinavia for any chance of that Arctic cold coming south.

We can see +ve hts.developing upstream later over Canada

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=1&type=0&archive=0

The hope is this feeds downstream with a weaker more amplified jet coming off the e.seaboard.

This is after this zonal period of wet and windy weather as the PV shifts across.It is as ever it seems another hope añd wait period to see if the tropical forcings work in our favour.

 

 

Yes, a SSW isn't the be all and end all but its a question of seeing what path the displacement follows - We still don't know the outcome of that and we also have to see how the tropical forcings progress in the coming weeks.

[Hotspur62]

I was looking at one of the forums on US weather site and a few of the regular forum users seem quite confident that a minor SSW will displace part of PV over to Western Russia/Scandanavia which may have positive impact on colder weather for Europe and UK from early/mid February. Not saying this is going to happen but in all the "doom and gloom" in here atm from a coldies perspective just trying to show one of the many possibilities on offer. I remember end of December on here and some were foolishly almost writing off the whole of winter then and at least we had a coldish spell for 5-7 days that appeared very quickly and unexpectidly on the models so people just need to be realistic and keep perspective. We were spoilt by Dec 2010 and following couple of winters which maybe just raised peoples  expectations too much. The last 2 winters have shown that the UK is not Scandanavia or Canada and snow is not as a frequent visitor to these shores as we would like.

     

[Man With Beard]

Not been able to post much recently but a small window now, so here's my assessment.

Forecasting on here comes in two types - what could happen, and what probably will happen. Singularity is doing a fantastic job in flagging up some of the longer-term "coulds" - keep them coming please! - personally, my level of long-term forecasting expertise is pretty close to zero, so I'm left to say what I see in the models.

GEFS T384 mean

Not a surprise to see the Azores High in that position, but 1030mb sits off the coast of Portugal for more or less the entire run. 

Highest uncertainty is over the UK from T240 onwards - looking at the ensembles individually, I'd say that's more down to timing issues of pssing lows. More importantly, fairly low uncertainty with regards troughing to the north, so very little chance given of a height rise to our north in the next 15 days:

ECM ensembles for London - trending a little cooler in the D10-D15 period, but this is probably explained by the GEFS charts - passing lows, temporary WNW flow after the exit of cold fronts causing fluctuations between mild and slightly below average conditions - not properly wintry at least in the south:

And so this takes us out to the 9th February. Verdict - seeing any snow at all south of the Pennines and below 400m would be quite a surprise. Instead, we have a fair amount of rain:

and the odd gale, though nothing too extreme likely away from the far NW

 

Now it seems everyone is looking at the mid-February period onwards. Some of our top long-range forecasters (or those with access to long-range models) have banged a bit of a drum about the prospect of a cold flip around this time. We need caution here. Predictions at D20 and beyond can only be categorised in the "could happen" category. I caution anyone against putting them in the "will probably" category. 

The truth is, if we get to February 10th in the way it seems we will, we will still be in need of dominoes falling in a favourable fashion to get a proper cold snap to the UK. And of course, if the charts are still zonal on February 10th, even a change in pattern may require an extra 5-10 days to filter through to the UK, taking us up to February 20th - and by that time, synoptics are increasingly required to be optimum to get cold/snow to our shores. 

So my verdict is - I don't rule out the possibility of wintry weather returning to the UK - but if I was forced to say one way or another, my feeling is 60:40 that many southern areas may again miss out on proper wintry cold within the optimum winter period - those lucky enough to have seen snow last week may have scooped all in the prize fund. Further north may get lucky on a weak PM shot, but don't expect anything white lying on your ground for too long. Sorry.

[johnwirral]

Heavy low level snow on the GFS for Saturday, interesting for some even though it is transient.

 

 

Edited January 25, 2016 by johnwirral

[nick sussex]

When not one single GEFS member removes the PV from the north all the way out to T384hrs you know things are bad.

Dreadful is being kind, I think I'll be using the term rancid!

A very disappointing run of outputs with little in the way of interest unless you like loads of wind and rain, some brief PM air arrives but is soon shunted away by the strong  jet.

I haven't quite thrown the towel in yet but getting close to it. Our last hope is either the MJO moving quickly into a favourable phase or the strat warming. I'll give it another week and if the outputs don't improve then I'm ready to call time on this winter.

More ridiculous warmth on the way temps easily hitting the twenties here today, the Euro high slug which ruined the Christmas skiing season is now intent on trashing the February half term period aswell.

My current cold optimism rating stands at 0.5/10!

[coldcomfort]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Not been able to post much recently but a small window now, so here's my assessment.

Forecasting on here comes in two types - what could happen, and what probably will happen. Singularity is doing a fantastic job in flagging up some of the longer-term "coulds" - keep them coming please! - personally, my level of long-term forecasting expertise is pretty close to zero, so I'm left to say what I see in the models.

GEFS T384 mean

Not a surprise to see the Azores High in that position, but 1030mb sits off the coast of Portugal for more or less the entire run. 

Highest uncertainty is over the UK from T240 onwards - looking at the ensembles individually, I'd say that's more down to timing issues of pssing lows. More importantly, fairly low uncertainty with regards troughing to the north, so very little chance given of a height rise to our north in the next 15 days:

ECM ensembles for London - trending a little cooler in the D10-D15 period, but this is probably explained by the GEFS charts - passing lows, temporary WNW flow after the exit of cold fronts causing fluctuations between mild and slightly below average conditions - not properly wintry at least in the south:

And so this takes us out to the 9th February. Verdict - seeing any snow at all south of the Pennines and below 400m would be quite a surprise. Instead, we have a fair amount of rain:

and the odd gale, though nothing too extreme likely away from the far NW

 

Now it seems everyone is looking at the mid-February period onwards. Some of our top long-range forecasters (or those with access to long-range models) have banged a bit of a drum about the prospect of a cold flip around this time. We need caution here. Predictions at D20 and beyond can only be categorised in the "could happen" category. I caution anyone against putting them in the "will probably" category. 

The truth is, if we get to February 10th in the way it seems we will, we will still be in need of dominoes falling in a favourable fashion to get a proper cold snap to the UK. And of course, if the charts are still zonal on February 10th, even a change in pattern may require an extra 5-10 days to filter through to the UK, taking us up to February 20th - and by that time, synoptics are increasingly required to be optimum to get cold/snow to our shores. 

So my verdict is - I don't rule out the possibility of wintry weather returning to the UK - but if I was forced to say one way or another, my feeling is 60:40 that many southern areas may again miss out on proper wintry cold within the optimum winter period - those lucky enough to have seen snow last week may have scooped all in the prize fund. Further north may get lucky on a weak PM shot, but don't expect anything white lying on your ground for too long. Sorry.

Great post mwab, but quite why you or anyone else feels the need to apologise just for saying things as they are is kind of weird....unless you have a weather machine and have deliberately set it to 'mild til March' that is.... 

[wishingforsnow]

10 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

I was looking at one of the forums on US weather site and a few of the regular forum users seem quite confident that a minor SSW will displace part of PV over to Western Russia/Scandanavia which may have positive impact on colder weather for Europe and UK from early/mid February. Not saying this is going to happen but in all the "doom and gloom" in here atm from a coldies perspective just trying to show one of the many possibilities on offer. I remember end of December on here and some were foolishly almost writing off the whole of winter then and at least we had a coldish spell for 5-7 days that appeared very quickly and unexpectidly on the models so people just need to be realistic and keep perspective. We were spoilt by Dec 2010 and following couple of winters which maybe just raised peoples  expectations too much. The last 2 winters have shown that the UK is not Scandanavia or Canada and snow is not as a frequent visitor to these shores as we would like.

     

To me it felt cold with a couple of air frosts day and night from around the 12th-21st of January so in my opinion it was a pretty decent lengthy cold spell even if it didn't deliver any snow down these parts it was still cold and dry. I believe we could see a return to that in mid February or perhaps even colder even if snow doesn't arrive down here, I would still take cold and dry.

[carinthian]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

When not one single GEFS member removes the PV from the north all the way out to T384hrs you know things are bad.

Dreadful is being kind, I think I'll be using the term rancid!

A very disappointing run of outputs with little in the way of interest unless you like loads of wind and rain, some brief PM air arrives but is soon shunted away by the strong  jet.

I haven't quite thrown the towel in yet but getting close to it. Our last hope is either the MJO moving quickly into a favourable phase or the strat warming. I'll give it another week and if the outputs don't improve then I'm ready to call time on this winter.

More ridiculous warmth on the way temps easily hitting the twenties here today, the Euro high slug which ruined the Christmas skiing season is now intent on trashing the February half term period aswell.

My current cold optimism rating stands at 0.5/10!

Yep Nick, our people really worried in resort for the main season starting in a weeks time. Freezing level shooting way above 2000m this week. Models are our worse scenario, however, a Bartlet set up later on would allow some colder air to filter on its eastern flank across our part of the Alps. 24c recorded in Northern Spain yesterday on the Biscay coast, not a million miles from you. Could be interesting to see how high it gets in your zone today. We need to see a big change and soon. Your ratings 0.5/10 far too high !

 C

[Hotspur62]

4 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

To me it felt cold with a couple of air frosts day and night from around the 12th-21st of January so in my opinion it was a pretty decent lengthy cold spell even if it didn't deliver any snow down these parts it was still cold and dry. I believe we could see a return to that in mid February or perhaps even colder even if snow doesn't arrive down here, I would still take cold and dry.

Totally agree. .We had a sprinkling of snow and 3 consecutive frosts with temps of -1 to -4. Compared to last winter it was "Baltic" lol!! Very good post by MWAB puts it all in perspective really.Odds are slightly against a cold spell as we just past mid winter point  but still a long way to go. Keep the faith people!! 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yep Nick, our people really worried in resort for the main season starting in a weeks time. Freezing level shooting way above 2000m this week. Models are our worse scenario, however, a Bartlet set up later on would allow some colder air to filter on its eastern flank across our part of the Alps. 24c recorded in Northern Spain yesterday on the Biscay coast, not a million miles from you. Could be interesting to see how high it gets in your zone today. We need to see a big change and soon. Your ratings 0.5/10 far too high !

 C

I gave it the half point because I'm ever the eternal optimist! lol Temps already upto 21c here! Some cooler air is expected to move in Thursday night with a chance of some light snow for the Pyrenees but overall the outlook is dire. No doubt the Euro high slug will depart the scene come March and April and we'll all be left thinking what could have been.

[MP-R]

16 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Totally agree. .We had a sprinkling of snow and 3 consecutive frosts with temps of -1 to -4. Compared to last winter it was "Baltic" lol!! Very good post by MWAB puts it all in perspective really.Odds are slightly against a cold spell as we just past mid winter point  but still a long way to go. Keep the faith people!! 

I suppose the threshold of cold spell is slightly lower in the southeast? Nothing more than a cold 'snap' here. Although it was chilly from about the 12th, that was comparatively to antecedent conditions therefore only being around average. 

Funnily enough, I'm expecting more average temperature following the passage of tomorrow and Wednesday's low, if current model runs are to be believed.