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Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
43 minutes ago, TomDav said:

Much stronger warming modelled with PV split (I think) & Zonal winds dropping to 14.28 m/s

ssw7.thumb.png.1a53108e4c107fa699060a3b2

That's great but doesn't it take about a month to work it's magic? That means late Feb early March, which isn't too shabby, but nobody's in the mood for a winter wonderland by then.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Iceni said:

That's great but doesn't it take about a month to work it's magic? That means late Feb early March, which isn't too shabby, but nobody's in the mood for a winter wonderland by then.

It depends if it ends up a major or minor SSW. In the former you can get a very quick trop response.

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl

While that jetstream is so strong, a PV weakening or slipping east will only be temporary, although welcome. The jetstream is the overriding problem. A proper SSW is required to break the flow and allow heights to the North and particularly Greenland.

While the jetstream is so strong , any heights over Greenland will be shortlived. Unfortunately that stream runs right through the US. At this stage  of Winter,the stratosphere is our hope now and time is ticking, but with a strong SSW within 7 to 10 days winter might be back.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
36 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

gfs-0-192.png?12

Is that another snowmaggedon for the US East Coast next weekend? 

Yes if that charts correct. It really would pile up then. We would have one of our own if the low to our northwest were to run west to east a couple hundred miles further south.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GEFS mean, the ECm and the GEM are not picking up on that transient Atlantic ridge at the moment (D9) so either the hi-res GFS's have spotted something or are on one. Though at D10 the GEM may be thinking about it:

ECM D9: ECM1-216.thumb.gif.2c450a8795047fe4f3e97 GEFS: gens-21-1-216.thumb.png.f5bcbcef41ea3a20 GFSgfs-0-216.thumb.png.bae2c1e5da3a2935fc3e

Bearing in mind the GFS 06z op came up with a Scandi high it does appear that it may be struggling with signals re the Arctic residue heights, the EPO and the PV movement, so a watching brief at the moment till we get some consistency.

ECM zonal till D10.

CFS w3 and w4 update maintaining the theme of the last few runs: 

wk3.wk4_20160123.z500.thumb.gif.649b471a

Not really seeing any strat response just yet.

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl

 

ECM charts very similar to GFS, will be on later to comment on this evenings run

I thought this might interest some,  spectacular image downloaded at 6.30pm off my sat dish  of the snowstorm leaving US. Its a pity it will all be rain when it gets over here.

 

Snowstormscan.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Some big differences between the GFS and ECM and these start within T144hrs. The UKMO is similar to the ECM over the Pacific and to the ne however it disagrees with the pattern over the USA.

The ECM blows up that low exiting Newfoundland and is different to the UKMO and GFS over the central USA plains.

The mid Atlantic low shown on the UKMO at T144hrs is likely track further south, so really hard to make any calls as to the correct solution but the GFS does split the PV within T144hrs which neither the ECM or UKMO do.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

A few posts removed....please try and keep on topic or post meaningful model output discussion....thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
1 hour ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

While that jetstream is so strong, a PV weakening or slipping east will only be temporary, although welcome. The jetstream is the overriding problem. A proper SSW is required to break the flow and allow heights to the North and particularly Greenland.

While the jetstream is so strong , any heights over Greenland will be shortlived. Unfortunately that stream runs right through the US. At this stage  of Winter,the stratosphere is our hope now and time is ticking, but with a strong SSW within 7 to 10 days winter might be back.

 

 

Ah but I think a disrupted and/or split Jetstream, irrespective of its strength can also be regarded as a bonus, so eyes down for that particular aspect too should it start showing up in the near-time to mid-range outputs. Granted this wouldn't bring about the holy grail such as an Easterly, but Easterlies are more common around this time of year and right into early Spring, so although none are currently modelled, they can and do still regularly happen from this point forward. As Nick Sussex and a few others often state, look upstream firstly for changes in the Atlantic pattern and then hope things fall just right for us a few days later. A warm start to the forthcoming working week and then a cool down to nearer average more seasonal Temperatures come the middle to end of the week. The period from the start of February is where my interest lies right now, watch this space!

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East

Hmmm interesting to see if what is shown now as 'PM shots' will develop into something more in regards to what may happen with the PV. Interesting that the models are now showing possibilities of blocking returning and GFS splits the vortex at 144 hours :shok: 'More runs needed'

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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

 

Quote

The period from the start of February is where my interest lies right now, watch this space!

 

Not according to the latest runs, up until the 7th.

Hints of a Scandinavian high building in this afternoon's model output, but that's disappeared now and we're back into the south westerlies stretching well into Europe.

 

 

Edited by Peter H
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
2 minutes ago, Peter H said:

 

 

Not according to the latest runs, up until the 7th.

Hints of a Scandinavian high building in this afternoon's model output, but that's disappeared now and we're back into a south westerlies stretching well into Europe.

 

 

Fair enough but even then I'm speaking of FI when considering things from beyond 1st February as that is eight days away even now. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

In terms of the ECM solution and that deep low which it develops over the ne USA, the NCEP Vermont state forecast has this:

THE ONE ITEM THAT THERES SOME SIGNAL FOR IS SOME KINDA COASTAL
EVENT THU NT AND FRI. IT HAS BEEN IN THE MDLS FOR SVRL DAYS...BUT
MOSTLY WEAK...OR TOO FAR OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER SPORADICALLY A RUN OF
THIS MODEL OR THAT CRANKS IT UP...TAKES IT UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO
THE COAST. THIS SPREAD IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE GEFS PLUMES.
YESTERDAY THE GEM WAS THE "CLOSE TO THE COAST STORM RUN"...TODAY
ITS THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS AND TODAYS GEM KEEP IT A WEAK WAVE
AND WELL OFFSHORE.

ANYHOW...THURSDAY BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ALONG THE ATLC
SEABOARD...THE MID WEEK COLD INTRUSION RETREATING NE AND GEN FAIR
SEASONABLE CONDS.  THUR NT AND FRI A SHARP 500 HPA SHORT WV MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE GRTLKS DRAGGING A CDFNT THRU FCA WITH -SHSN/SHRA
ALONG WITH LES ENHANCEMENT OF THE PCPN. THE ECMWF HAS THIS SYSTEM
INTERACTING W/COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MAJOR CYCLOGENISUS
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AS WELL AS THE THREATS THAT WOULD ENTAIL.
THE REST OF THE GUID (HPC/GFS/GEM) DOESN`T HAVE THIS PHASING
ATTM...AND WHILE THERES A SIGNAL...ITS TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE A
WIDE SPREAD.
 

Because this low deepens its more likely to engage that lobe of the PV in ne Canada  , this will then send this system further north into the Atlantic and its track into the UK will be less favourable. We'd rather see any PV lobe interaction with a shortwave over the Great Lakes.

Regardless of what the models do later we want a more southerly tracking low and not the ECM solution because we need to clear low heights from Greenland. It might have a few skirmishes with some PM air but its really mutton dressed as lamb!

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl
11 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Ah but I think a disrupted and/or split Jetstream, irrespective of its strength can also be regarded as a bonus, so eyes down for that particular aspect too. Granted this wouldn't bring about the holy grail such as an Easterly, but Easterlies are more common around this time of year and right into early Spring, so although none are currently modelled, they can and do still regularly happen from this point forward. As Nick Sussex and a few others often state, look upstream firstly for changes in the Atlantic pattern and then hope things fall just right for us a few days later. A warm start to the forthcoming working week and then a cool down to nearer average more seasonal Temperatures come the middle to end of the week. The period from the start of February is where my interest lies right now, watch this space!

Exactly, upstream is where the changes will take place first. The jet stream this winter has a lot to answer for... low pressure after low pressure on our shore bringing disruption and flooding. Whether the ENSO is partly responsible i am not so certain although it does affect weather patterns around the world. Certainly the models are showing some coldish interludes but nothing major. The runs in a few days may provide some interest for cold lovers, we will see.

Edited by Derbyshire Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Fair enough but even then I'm speaking of FI when considering things from beyond 1st February as that is eight days away even now. 

Yep, Met Office and Simon Keeling going for something colder in mid February but I'm not optimistic.

The BBC's monthly outlook tomorrow might be interesting.

Models currently updating so we'll see if anything has changed from earlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Interesting outlook from the models this evening. Looks like we could have a very interesting February. My current thinking is that we won't see any 'significant cold' until 11th February with the strat warming. Before then, i think we will see some colder pockets with the risk of snow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

There could be some wintry interest next weekend with a fairly potent polar maritime shot.

ECU1-144.GIF?24-0     ECU0-144.GIF?24-0

Some squally wintry showers, even to low levels though these would mainly effect the west of the UK. The Highlands, Cumbria and the Pennines would be most favoured from this.

Not seeing much interest for southern and eastern areas for now unless we can get enough of an Atlantic ridge to bring the winds around to the north.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
17 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

There could be some wintry interest next weekend with a fairly potent polar maritime shot.

ECU1-144.GIF?24-0     ECU0-144.GIF?24-0

Some squally wintry showers, even to low levels though these would mainly effect the west of the UK. The Highlands, Cumbria and the Pennines would be most favoured from this.

Not seeing much interest for southern and eastern areas for now unless we can get enough of an Atlantic ridge to bring the winds around to the north.

Potent enough PM shot, but sadly not what we're all looking for. I am however interested in what Nick was talking about, and the differences at T144 over the water upstream. This will take some watching. If the euro models are not handling this well, it will have big implications  to anything beyond 144. If it interacts with the PV very strongly, then we could have a fairly quick response from the models. I think we'll know more by the 12z runs tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

So with regards to the mid term strat warming and significant weakening and displacement of the Strat PV seen here.

gfsnh-10-180.png?12

 

Would this strat pattern filter down to the trop? And if so would it have a time lag?

Im assuming the answers to those questions are both yes, and if that's the case then as we head into the start of Feb and beyond we should see some response and a much more favourable synoptic profile for our patch.

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