Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Chris1986]

My thinking is that the  PV is going to split it's just a question of when and more importantly where. Until the models get to grips with this I think we will be left in limbo with model data.

[Hull snow]

Any news from gp on the torpedo ?

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Any news from gp on the torpedo ?

James Bond has been sent to look for it! lol Apparently it was stolen by a bunch of mild ramper extremists!

I haven't seen GP about for a while although judging by comments from Ian F the torpedo might be found.

[Bullseye]

Some potential flooding issues for upcoming week. BBC weather at 1pm showed more coming in during Thursday night into Friday along with more mild air coming in. And to make things worse... So close. 

 

[nick sussex]

In case by some miracle the UK gets appreciable snowfall this winter then the  technical way of seeing how much has fallen is not to wake up and see how much cover there is on the wheelie bin! lol

Was watching CNN's coverage last night of the snowstorm in the eastern USA and apparently what they do is measure the snow every 3 hours, then remove that and then again after 3 hours measure whats accumulated and so on.

This stops the snow from compacting which then gives a false reading. Of course in the UK snow lasting more than 3 hours in recent years has been hard to come by but if the PV ever relents then something to bear in mind!

[MR EXTREMES]

two things ive been thinking long and hard about in regards to the models,

although I don't feel theres a lot of hope for the rest of winter.

I do wonder if the models all of them are they really that accurate at modelling vortex splits and placements especially out into fi......

secondly the models have the vortex stretch across our side of the northern hemisphere there is a split shown but by the next frame is stretched across the north into Scandinavia it is clear to see the vortex over this side of the pond but the residual part of Canada seems to stick there so it would seem this is draining away chances of blocking.

I don't really care much for a cold spring being on the south coast but of coarse this don't mean winter is over in Scotland or futher north.

its so bloody messy that I don't think for a minute the ssw if it happens will make a blind bit of difference it also has to be noted as I said back when the vortex started to gain strength that its been a force to be reckoned with for 3 winters or so in a row.

its ramped up again in the part of winter where u would think u could start to see weakening but this is not happening.

theres also a ridge northwest of the states showing up in the north pacific cutting into the pole on that side also ridge into Russia and the kara area these seem to be pain in the ass as there blocking free movement of the vortex.

so Id be inclined to side with met office and there long range model and would seem to favour some north west flows at times but more west and at times sw flow for perhaps the remainder of winter.

its also must be noted the met office don't seem all that concerned with the stratospheric warming event it has to be said this winter was always going to be a hard one to call and the background signals where very convincing of a continued vortex domination also seemed to me although we had a super nino that the background signals where more nina than el nino.

as nick said vortex on steroids the massive temp differences around the globe especially in the pacific must be feeding the vortex and inturn aiding the jet streams power and strength with the azore heights much more bullish and dominating than 2009/10 since this winter its been a steady return to the winters that have dominated since the early 2000 and late 90s.

and as it stands the models have all come to an agreement that northern blocking apart from the areas ive stated are very limited or unlikely.

id love to be able to have the met office long range model in my front room I think its done a good job.

looking forwards to any strat activity just to see what effect it will have but I'm skeptical and would feel because of the vortexs domination over the last few years I cant see the ssw even having much of an effect other than a brief split then reformation stretched across but we need all of the vortex away from the Greenland Canadian area for us to benefit.

as u can see residual vortex Canada very strong heights to our sw slowly making inroads into Europe the best chart for a slight straw clutch is the gem as the Scandinavian lobe of vortex lower heights are futher south and more into Europe,

but even then we don't have a surge of heights really blocking the residual lobe of vortex on the Canadian area so like most of this winter where stuck in the middle.

really messy and disappointing.

[nick sussex]

ER you do make a good point re NWP and PV splits.

I think the models have a bias at longer range to split this and show a better clearance over Greenland and often have a much weaker PV lobe over the ne Canada.

Then as the timeframe ticks down the heights over Greenland are lowered and the PV lobe intensifies over the ne of Canada.

And yes regarding  the issue with the ne Canada lobe, this will stop any chance of blocking or even a better retrogression of the Azores high.

We'd need to see any residual lobe placed further west over Hudson Bay.

[Iceni]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

In case by some miracle the UK gets appreciable snowfall this winter then the  technical way of seeing how much has fallen is not to wake up and see how much cover there is on the wheelie bin! lol

Was watching CNN's coverage last night of the snowstorm in the eastern USA and apparently what they do is measure the snow every 3 hours, then remove that and then again after 3 hours measure whats accumulated and so on.

This stops the snow from compacting which then gives a false reading. Of course in the UK snow lasting more than 3 hours in recent years has been hard to come by but if the PV ever relents then something to bear in mind!

Exactly. This photo was taken yesterday  an hour after the snow plough went through in Princeton NJ, as you can see, it'll need another pass... My friend there says they had another 12 hours blizzard conditions to go at the time. Another problem is if the car is covered, you don't want to let it freeze or you'll damage the bodywork. 

Edited January 24, 2016 by Iceni

[nick sussex]

The GFS 12hrs run at T144hrs is much better in terms of the overall pattern compared to its earlier runs. The PV lobe near Canada is weaker and further west.

T186hrs not bad , the mid Atlantic low needs to separate from low heights in the ne Canada and allow the Azores high to ridge nw.

Edited January 24, 2016 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

Yes Nick, quite a big difference by the 01st of Feb, PV nowhere near as strong - is this a first sign of strat warming being picked up by the models , or a rogue run!!

Something tells me this run could be very good by day 10.

Edited January 24, 2016 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

MMM incoming northerly maybe 

[feb1991blizzard]

Look at this ridge going to build into Greenland - this is going to be an absolutely stellar run, watch it topple into a NE'ly as well.

[Day 10]

Much better run here from the gfs, let's hope that it's picking up on things going on in the strat. Quite pleased to see this kind of chart after the horror charts that have been on offer lately

Edited January 24, 2016 by Minus 10

[nick sussex]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

MMM incoming northerly maybe

Yes the small ridge developing ahead of the PV lobe, that's the key, just need the Azores high to ridge nw into that area.

[Ali1977]

Yep, that's happening....could even be a split PV here - can this be right??? One good thing is that this isn't in the far reaches of FI....

A few days ago Ian F did mention a poss Northerly around 3/4th but then then seemed to disappear , I wonder if this is that!!

-8c uppers incoming

Edited January 24, 2016 by Ali1977

[Day 10]

gem, gfs, ukmo at 144

[snowray]

Yes a small miracle has happen, that damned Euro-high is finally shifting West....

 

06z and 12z

[Ali1977]

Unfortunately it didn't link with the Arctic high and pressure beginning to fall over Greeny again.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, its not quite going to make it on this run, not a million miles away from what GP predicted though is it?

[Day 10]

Pretty cold north westerly in the medium term, followed by a cold plunge from the north. At least 150hrs isn't way into FI. Be interesting to see what the ecm does now from 144 - 240

[MR EXTREMES]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, that's happening....could even be a split PV here - can this be right??? One good thing is that this isn't in the far reaches of FI....

A few days ago Ian F did mention a poss Northerly around 3/4th but then then seemed to disappear , I wonder if this is that!!

-8c uppers incoming

The pv has split there but a suspect looking little lobe of pv still remains interesting run.

but until we see this Greenland heights established its self into Greenland area with in a more reliable timeframe I'd be very cautious also need ukmo and ecm on side  

[TomDav]

Much stronger warming modelled with PV split (I think) & Zonal winds dropping to 14.28 m/s

[snowray]

Just a toppler but nice band of snow moving South there, may well turn into something more interesting on future runs. I think many on here would at least get their snow fix if something like this was to confirm.

[nick sussex]

This northerly toppler comes about due to the first strat warming which pushes the PV towards Scandi. The second warming is more likely to push the PV back west again before that weakens.

Of course given the winter so far a northerly toppler is welcome but theres still no proper blocking over Greenland.

Anyway at least theres some interest in the outputs which is better than a few days ago.

[ukpaul]

Limited support from ensembles but the op and control are singing from the same hymn sheet.