Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Ali1977]

Everyone stay calm, the 12z FI will be much better.

[Blake]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Everyone stay calm, the 12z FI will be much better.

If it isn't, I shall quote you on this and perhaps add it to my signature

Heading SE...cold NW/N'erly potentially. 

[IDO]

The consensus from the long range models till at least mid Feb is HP to the south and LP to the north and the UK targeted by the jet. So wet, mild and cooler interludes with little wintry for places not favoured. The JMA w2 and then w3 & w4:

  

CFS w3 and w4 anomalies a variation on that theme but with the jet further north in w4: 

So little sign from the models that anything blocked or cold is on the horizon. So without a SSW and/or the torpedo the next 3-4 weeks looks uninspiring. That is backed up by what the GFS is showing out till D16. It is a case of fingers crossed that plan B comes to fruition and that is just a matter of waiting for the models to pick it up. Certainly they are not remotely  interested at the moment.

So ignoring what could happen, the models have a milder period showing up from today for a few days, then from there, PM and TM mini-ridge/trough combos out till week 3, surface conditions will be adjusted as the models place the jet further north or south. That scenario usually means rain: N>S and temps: S>N. Of course all bets off when (if?) the background signals start showing in the models.

Edited January 22, 2016 by IDO

[Mucka]

I think two things are now clear;

1. No Easterly

2. No Atlantic ridge.

All the output is pointing toward a return to zonal conditions next week which is set to last until well into the first week of Feb as the PV, in general terms, shifts from West to East.

My original thinking was for a more amplified pattern and split of this vortex energy with the main lobe setting up to our East and smaller lobe moving W/SW amplifying the pattern behind. While that thinking is proving incorrect it was not without some merit because if we look at ECM day 10 we can see it is not a million miles from the pattern I was describing but without the long wave amplitude I was looking for. (main lobe of PV moving E/SE, residual lobe mowing W/SW.

That has been enough to allow my prediction that the models were massively overdoing high pressure to our South end of Jan/early Feb to be correct but not enough to save my prediction of an Atlantic ridge from being a bust. It also proved correct that the Scandi high theme would be dropped due to forcing.

I did also expect a better NH profile with higher heights in the Arctic region than is being modeled even though I didn't state as much. This is also down to the predicted flatness of the upstream pattern which again I expected to be more amplified.

Assuming no quick turnaround in the output it looks like we are now looking toward end of first week of Feb for prospects to improve but the general consensus seems to be more mid Feb. It seems I was overoptimistic (too progressive) with my clean cross polar transfer of PV energy so I'm not sure I want to forecast a quicker move toward a pattern change and blocking than mid Feb now yet I still feel it is entirely possible we will see much better charts than what we see now for toward end of first week Feb.

I would love to see another wintry blast while we still have true cold and lying snow potential but at this time of year I am little more relaxed because any failure still means Spring is around the corner.

 

 

[mcweather]

From some of the posts today I was expecting the 06z GFS to have all twenty ensemble members up around 10C yet beyond the coming week which we have known for a while was likely to be zonal there are plenty of cold perturbations. Funnily enough the mildish clustering breaks up on feb 1st so plenty of time for Feb and march for that matter to deliver the cold and snow that many of  us crave.  I know that the sun is getting higher in Feb. and March but I have had 20 foot snowdrifts in the second half of Feb even down here on the south coast.

 

[wishingforsnow]

57 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I think two things are now clear;

1. No Easterly

2. No Atlantic ridge.

All the output is pointing toward a return to zonal conditions next week which is set to last until well into the first week of Feb as the PV, in general terms, shifts from West to East.

My original thinking was for a more amplified pattern and split of this vortex energy with the main lobe setting up to our East and smaller lobe moving W/SW amplifying the pattern behind. While that thinking is proving incorrect it was not without some merit because if we look at ECM day 10 we can see it is not a million miles from the pattern I was describing but without the long wave amplitude I was looking for. (main lobe of PV moving E/SE, residual lobe mowing W/SW.

That has been enough to allow my prediction that the models were massively overdoing high pressure to our South end of Jan/early Feb to be correct but not enough to save my prediction of an Atlantic ridge from being a bust. It also proved correct that the Scandi high theme would be dropped due to forcing.

I did also expect a better NH profile with higher heights in the Arctic region than is being modeled even though I didn't state as much. This is also down to the predicted flatness of the upstream pattern which again I expected to be more amplified.

Assuming no quick turnaround in the output it looks like we are now looking toward end of first week of Feb for prospects to improve but the general consensus seems to be more mid Feb. It seems I was overoptimistic (too progressive) with my clean cross polar transfer of PV energy so I'm not sure I want to forecast a quicker move toward a pattern change and blocking than mid Feb now yet I still feel it is entirely possible we will see much better charts than what we see now for toward end of first week Feb.

I would love to see another wintry blast while we still have true cold and lying snow potential but at this time of year I am little more relaxed because any failure still means Spring is around the corner.

 

 

No 'Easterly' or 'Atlantic ridge' in the immediate 10-15 day output ... At the moment. But maybe the models are also overdoing the re emergence of the Bartlett high? I think up until early/mid February we will end up in a 'halfway house' situation where it will be mild but not overly mild and not as wet and stormy constantly as December. Then the question remains to be seen about the occurrence of the SSW and when that will take effect and on top of that, will it benefit the UK. There is still a lot to play for and at best it looks like it could be early February for cold, but the bigger picture isn't discounting the return of cold altogether right now and as another poster pointed out neither are some ensembles. 

[booferking]

Can we move the whole vortex to are east now that would be interesting. Nope i guess not just seems to be ground hog day heights try to build into Norway at end of the run

Edited January 22, 2016 by booferking

[carinthian]

Latest model forecast temp for 1st Feb, that's about as mild its gets for the whole of Europe.  Cannot get any worse than this chart for widespread winter warmth ? Maybe models will flip again, hopefully.

 C

[linarite]

potentially worrying amounts rain for NW England keep showing up in the later stages of high res GFS. On top of the c. 100mm forecast for next 5 days.  We're still clearing up from December's sequence of frontal systems. I imagine the Met Office will be keeping a very close eye on this development.

[nick sussex]

I'm not sure what the French is for utter diabolical crxp! but I'll make sure I have that ready for the next instalment of the GFS which was painful from start to finish.

The main PV doesn't locate to Scandi and the GFS plays a game of throwing chunks of it west and east. Dire with a capital D!

PS my attempts at finding a nicer French word for crxp failed! of course I do know some choice French swear words that can bypass the NW filter but I thought I'd avoid the wrath of the mods and just stick to  English moaning about some of the  outputs! lol

Edited January 22, 2016 by nick sussex

[blizzard81]

Just now, nick sussex said:

I'm not sure what the French is for utter diabolical crxp! but I'll make sure I have that ready for the next instalment of the GFS which was painful from start to finish.

The main PV doesn't locate to Scandi and the GFS plays a game of throwing chunks of it west and east. Dire with a capital D!

As bad as it gets to be honest. I am just hoping that the GFS is having one of those all too familiar haven't got a clue moments lol. Lets hope the ECM keeps us from drinking more alcohol than usual on a Friday night!

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I'm not sure what the French is for utter diabolical crxp! but I'll make sure I have that ready for the next instalment of the GFS which was painful from start to finish.

The main PV doesn't locate to Scandi and the GFS plays a game of throwing chunks of it west and east. Dire with a capital D!

You can say that again Nick. The worst mild run I have seen for mid -winter. Look at the extent of that high at the end of the run. From Iceland to deepest Africa, Canaries to Outer suburbs of Moscow. Euro high on fire. Looks like drought continues for most of mainland Europe.  However, most models cannot verify this will happen of course !

 C

[Derbyshire Snow]

Evening all. Looking through todays output so far  i can see no change from previous days runs as expected. Full on zonal. Two areas to overcome are the jet stream which is very strong and i have to now call it the Bartlett which is set in concrete now. Attached is the latest image of the snowstorm and North Atlantic downloaded at 4.45pm from my weather satellite system.

I will have a good look at models later with updated satellite view 

[nick sussex]

The GEM is far better than the GFS at T240hrs with the main PV over Scandi and low heights lifting away from Greenland. Unfortunately at that range its not a model have too much faith in but we have to hope the ECM will have a similar pattern because another run similar to the GFS horror show will be just too much!

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest model forecast temp for 1st Feb, that's about as mild its gets for the whole of Europe.  Cannot get any worse than this chart for widespread winter warmth ? Maybe models will flip again, hopefully.

 C

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEM is far better than the GFS at T240hrs with the main PV over Scandi and low heights lifting away from Greenland. Unfortunately at that range its not a model have too much faith in but we have to hope the ECM will have a similar pattern because another run similar to the GFS horror show will be just too much!

yeah just see the GEM, It looks pretty good and more inline with METO thoughts - so on that I'm thinking that's the kind of thing we'll be seeing .

[ukpaul]

End of the GFS goes back to the idea of European blocking, if only it had been correct before we would be onto a much more secure pattern for cold than hoping for a phantom pv shift. There's still possibly time for a block to retrogress or an undercut but it's running out quickly. Our problem is similar to what it's been for a few years, that the pv lobe in Canada will not move and just gets ever angrier. Retrogression could squeeze it back but it sure isn't going to drain eastwards.

[winterof79]

GFS is a dogs dinner to be fair

GEM and JMA transfer the PV

 

Have faith as there's going to be pain to gain

At this early stage it leaves chunks behind.I feel when the torpedo hits it will be a cleaner transfer

Edited January 22, 2016 by winterof79

[wishingforsnow]

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

You can say that again Nick. The worst mild run I have seen for mid -winter. Look at the extent of that high at the end of the run. From Iceland to deepest Africa, Canaries to Outer suburbs of Moscow. Euro high on fire. Looks like drought continues for most of mainland Europe.  However, most models cannot verify this will happen of course !

 C

There's no way that will verify, especially not over Central and Eastern Europe 

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, wishingforsnow said:

There's no way that will verify, especially not over Central and Eastern Europe 

Hope you are right of course, but much of Central and Eastern Europe have been under High Pressure belts and drought conditions for nearly 9 month now .

 C

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

I think two things are now clear;

1. No Easterly

2. No Atlantic ridge.

All the output is pointing toward a return to zonal conditions next week which is set to last until well into the first week of Feb as the PV, in general terms, shifts from West to East.

I've never seen the NWP so thrawn and hell bent on waving two fingers at every attempt to intuit the likely teleconnection ...

Just when the thoughts focus on no Scandinavian heights, up pops the low-res GFS and it even has the temerity to include an Atlantic trough when the medium range modelling is pointing to heights building there.

Brave call to rule anything in or out for two weeks hence.

[nick sussex]

I think we might be seeing another divergence regarding the MJO signal and this is likely to show up especially in the GEFS which are reluctant to move this out of the COD.

The GEFS bias corrected do at least try and move the MJO.

 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Hope you are right of course, but much of Central and Eastern Europe have been under High Pressure belts and drought conditions for nearly 9 month now .

 C

Absolutely. With such a repetitive pattern, our neck of the woods has been pelted with rain, while the east has been slap bang under the euro high for months on end. 12z is quite different to the 6z later on, but the 0-10 day period looks pretty unsettled.

[Ali1977]

Not many Ensemble members following the Op at day 10, with several looking like the GEM.

[mb018538]

With El Niño contributing to our mild wet pattern, the same thing has been happening in the Pacific NW of the USA most of the winter. Tedious for sure.

[winterof79]

23 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

Evening all. Looking through todays output so far  i can see no change from previous days runs as expected. Full on zonal. Two areas to overcome are the jet stream which is very strong and i have to now call it the Bartlett which is set in concrete now. Attached is the latest image of the snowstorm and North Atlantic downloaded at 4.45pm from my weather satellite system.

I will have a good look at models later with updated satellite view 

"Bartlett set in concrete" Not convinced .You've gone and posted it now though so that's it.Fat lady no cigar,running out of winter and there's always next year will be thrown out to the forum

Hold on though its January.....phew.

Edited January 22, 2016 by winterof79