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Roger J Smith

C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016

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CET averages and extremes for February

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

6.4 ... 2011 CET (tied with six other years as 21st warmest)

6.2 ... 2014 CET (tied with 1877 as 32nd warmest)

4.7 ... mean for 2001-2015 and also for 1986-2015 (new stat for our tables)
4.4 ... mean 1981-2010
4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 and also for 2015

3.9 ... mean for 1659-2015 (all 357 years)
3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 and also for 2012

3.2 ... 2013 CET

2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Sunday 31st January, or with increasing time penalties

before the end of the day Wednesday 3rd February. Good luck!

 

 

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2.9 for me please. 

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Rest in pieces 'winter' 2015/2016!  10C  :(  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C February in 2010.  Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.

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3,8 please.

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Stick me in for 4.9C at the moment. 

I suspect that any bite this winter has won't be felt until the second half of Feb and by that time it will be too late to redeem what will have been a poor winter.

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5.3C, mostly dominated by the Atlantic, but cooler than Dec due to less southerly influence/TM air, wet month, above average rainfall

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another record breaker looks likely 9.6c  i say

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I'll risk bombing out of the contest with a guess of 2.7C.  

I'm hoping the likely mild conditions as we approach the end of January will be replaced by something more seasonal, as the PV moves away and we see an El Nino 1983-esque February rather than a repeat of 1998.

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4.5 for me please, should manage to get within a couple of degrees this time!!!

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5.5 for me.Mild spells with odd colder spell.

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