Spring 2016

[Costa Del Fal]

Spring is easy to forecast. March, average rainfall/sunshine/temps. April, complete high pressure domination and likely warmer than average at least by day. May, cool and wet. Lol.

I will be nervous if another warm dry April comes along but it seems our seasons are upside down these days. Watch the Greenland High evolve around late may again...

Absolutely nothing can beat that first truly warm, sunny spring day though, taking a walk through the fields or woods and listening to the sounds of nature and it's reawakening.

Edited January 19, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Thunderbolt_]

My prediction for spring 2016, as of now is for a slightly warmer and slightly drier than average March, a shocker of an April (ala 2012) and a cool and dry May (ala 2013).

Edited January 20, 2016 by Thunderbolt_

[summer blizzard]

Given that the SSW this winter (or close to it anyway) looks fairly late the lagged effects will probably ensure a cooler than average first half to March (or rather a -AO first half to March and probable CET correlation). Regarding the rest of Spring i'm going to take a view based on the persistence of at least moderate El Nino conditions and a neutral QBO.

Analogues

March MEI: 2010, 2005, 1998, 1992, 1987, 1983, 1958

Taking into account QBO:  2005, 1998

Bias above and below average: Average and Above average

April MEI: 1998, 1993, 1992, 1987, 1983, 1958

Taking into account QBO: 1998

Bias above and below average: Average

May MEI: 2015, 1998, 1997, 1993, 1992, 1987, 1983

Taking into account QBO: 2015, 1998

Bias above and below average: Average and Above Average

......

So on the whole and taking into account the fact that i don't expect the Spring pattern to manifest until the second half of March i would suggest that both March and April will be within 1C of the 1981-2010 average with May having the greatest possibility of an above average CET.

Just for fun..

 

[Gord]

Can't decide what I would like this year. Depends on how the rest of winter goes.

If February is rubbish, the something like March 2013.

If February is excellent, then something like Easter 2007 would be perfect.

Not that I get to choose of course!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Gord said:

Can't decide what I would like this year. Depends on how the rest of winter goes.

If February is rubbish, the something like March 2013.

If February is excellent, then something like Easter 2007 would be perfect.

Not that I get to choose of course!

Doubt March '13 hardly! will never be repeated, I guess a lousy March, Wet, mostly dominated by the Atlantic, but at the end signs of heights building to our north, meaning a cold, wet lousy April dominated by mostly E/ne or northerly winds, colder than Dec '15, but snowless south

Edited January 20, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Gord]

36 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Doubt March '13 hardly! will never be repeated, I guess a lousy March, Wet, mostly dominated by the Atlantic, but at the end signs of heights building to our north, meaning a cold, wet lousy April dominated by mostly E/ne or northerly winds, colder than Dec '15, but snowless south

Of course it'll get repeated! Probably not this year, probably not for many years. But to say never is a bit rash!

You really are in full pessimistic mode this season aren't you? Surely some warm Spring sunshine somewhere...no?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Gord said:

Of course it'll get repeated! Probably not this year, probably not for many years. But to say never is a bit rash!

You really are in full pessimistic mode this season aren't you? Surely some warm Spring sunshine somewhere...no?

Warm Spring Sunshine in Scotland, my guess, High to north and low to south, not pessimistic, realistic

[Gord]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Warm Spring Sunshine in Scotland, my guess, High to north and low to south, not pessimistic, realistic

Best time to judge the realism of an event is after it's happened.

We'll see, you grab an umbrella, I'll save my silvers for the ice cream van and at the end of Spring we'll see who was right.

(To be fair, I'd enjoy a 99 with a flake in any weather!)

[Costa Del Fal]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Doubt March '13 hardly! will never be repeated, I guess a lousy March, Wet, mostly dominated by the Atlantic, but at the end signs of heights building to our north, meaning a cold, wet lousy April dominated by mostly E/ne or northerly winds, colder than Dec '15, but snowless south

Pretty much anything is possible in this world! Who would have thought we would had 2 winters with such extreme 24hr/48hr rainfall totals would have occurred so close together? 

Our climate really is not quite as bad as you make out to be. Lol.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

our climate is crap! we are so far north, wet we are milder than New York, same latitude as Canada, they get winters and good hot summers, we seem stuck in eternal autumn

[Costa Del Fal]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

our climate is crap! we are so far north, wet we are milder than New York, same latitude as Canada, they get winters and good hot summers, we seem stuck in eternal autumn

I don't deny we dont enjoy the continental climate so many others do but all I am saying it doesn't rain as perpetually as you make it out to be (Most of the time, of course recently has made a good go of it lol!). We do enjoy extensive dry periods from time to time. Our weather and climate like the rest of the world is always changing in some way.

[MP-R]

We get some of the best synoptics of any country in the world... just never at the right time of year! Southwesterlies in January = nope. Easterlies in April = nope. Northerlies in August = nope. High pressure slap back over the UK in October = nope. You get the picture...

Edited January 20, 2016 by MP-R

[Thunderbolt_]

On 18/01/2016 at 6:10 PM, March said:

I wish March 2013 had never happened. Not only was it a cold non-event here with just a morning of snow, but ever since every March is hailed as having a good (60%+) chance of being the same. Coldies usually give up a few days into it though! 

That's the problem when we get exceptional months, they kind of mess with people's perceptions. Both March 2012 and 2013 were extraordinary for totally different reasons, 2012 for warmth and sunshine and 2013 for cold and snow. 2013 has messed with the perceptions of a lot of cold weather lovers, but at the same time 2012 has skewed mine in a way too.

After those two months, I think mildies like myself seem to expect more in the way of April/May type warmth from March after 2012, whereas the coldies expect more in the way of January-type cold after 2013. In reality, a repeat of either of those two months is not likely for quite a while, if I'm honest.

[Summer Sun]

Sunday could feel almost spring like with temps pushing towards the mid teens

[IanR]

at least my two worst months of the year are closing , i just see feb as a transition month , then march as a countdown to spring

love march, even if its cold , as all the best months are ahead

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hope it comes of SS, but not sure GFS is correct about lack of rain?

[hillbilly]

On ‎20‎/‎01‎/‎2016 at 9:11 PM, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Doubt March '13 hardly! will never be repeated, I guess a lousy March, Wet, mostly dominated by the Atlantic, but at the end signs of heights building to our north, meaning a cold, wet lousy April dominated by mostly E/ne or northerly winds, colder than Dec '15, but snowless south

There have been plenty of marches with wintery elements,maybe not like 2013 but brief spells nonetheless.My memories of march in the 80's was a mainly wintery month,particularly 1987 and 1986.Other more notables were 1970,1969,1965,1962 and of course 1947 where the first half was subzero and snow  to match any winter !

[summer blizzard]

13 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

That's the problem when we get exceptional months, they kind of mess with people's perceptions. Both March 2012 and 2013 were extraordinary for totally different reasons, 2012 for warmth and sunshine and 2013 for cold and snow. 2013 has messed with the perceptions of a lot of cold weather lovers, but at the same time 2012 has skewed mine in a way too.

After those two months, I think mildies like myself seem to expect more in the way of April/May type warmth from March after 2012, whereas the coldies expect more in the way of January-type cold after 2013. In reality, a repeat of either of those two months is not likely for quite a while, if I'm honest.

I must admit that March 12 ruined me. I went from your classic 'winter ever lasting' to wanting a repeat every year. It was just so perfect in every way, temperatures near 20C, stupendous amounts of sunshine (here in Leeds we burned the cloud back so sunshine totals beat 2003) and it was also pretty dry. No humidity of course as well.

[Thunderbolt_]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I must admit that March 12 ruined me. I went from your classic 'winter ever lasting' to wanting a repeat every year. It was just so perfect in every way, temperatures near 20C, stupendous amounts of sunshine (here in Leeds we burned the cloud back so sunshine totals beat 2003) and it was also pretty dry. No humidity of course as well.

Of course. I'd welcome a repeat of March 2012 with open arms any year as it is my favourite ever March. The point I was trying to make with my post is that it is unfortunately not likely to be repeated for a while, so there is no point really expecting that at the moment.

[cheeky_monkey]

comparing the last two big El Nino of 82-83 & 97-98 I would take the spring of 1998 over the spring of 1983..however summer 1983 was far better than 1998...maybe we will end up with a 1998 spring and a 1983 summer?

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

comparing the last two big El Nino of 82-83 & 97-98 I would take the spring of 1998 over the spring of 1983..however summer 1983 was far better than 1998...maybe we will end up with a 1998 spring and a 1983 summer?

Or, heaven forbid, the other way around knowing how recent weather has behaved... 

[cheeky_monkey]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Or, heaven forbid, the other way around knowing how recent weather has behaved... 

Actually I think 1998 wasn't to dissimilar to last summer without the hot spell...wasn't particularly wet but neither was it particularly warm either

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Actually I think 1998 wasn't to dissimilar to last summer without the hot spell...wasn't particularly wet but neither was it particularly warm either

I think you're right. It was a dull and boring summer in the main, bar a hot spell in early August. 1998's got to be one of the most boring years of my lifetime weatherwise, up there with 2002, 2011 and 2015.

[virtualsphere]

On 1/21/2016 at 10:14 AM, Thunderbolt_ said:

After those two months, I think mildies like myself seem to expect more in the way of April/May type warmth from March after 2012, whereas the coldies expect more in the way of January-type cold after 2013. In reality, a repeat of either of those two months is not likely for quite a while, if I'm honest.

Although this is very true, it seems to also be a strange quirk of the statistics that these things often seem to repeat quite quickly - e.g. April 2007 was the warmest by a long way, but then beaten in 2011; a string of colder than average Decembers in the 2000s was followed by December 2010, after which we've endured four milder wet ones on the trot culminating in the record breaking mild & wet of 2015; after a string of pretty wet summers we had 2 decent summers in a row in 2013 & 2014 and so on.

We might therefore be more likely to have an 'extreme' March following 2012/13 rather than an extreme May, which seems to have produced nothing notable in recent years.  Having said that I'd be less confident of a March 2013 repeat, as that spell followed on from a notable cold spell in January, and more blocked weather the previous few winters.  Since autumn 2013 similar cold / blocked spells in the winter half of the year seem to be harder to come by as the weather seems more zonal in general.  It's got to change at some point though!

[Milhouse]

It maybe because we have been rather sun starved lately, but the light today did have a slightly brighter look to it around midday indicating the lengthening days and the rising sun. Over a month since the shortest day now.