North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

[I Cumbria Marra I]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

The main issue here is how far North or South the system goes.

it will be right down to the wire yet again(when is it not) also as the warning says

depends on the intensity of the PPN as to rain or snow for low ground.

after todays shambolics my expectations are very low indeed,however you never know

the surprise snowfalls are always the best,well for me anyway.

C.S

I think tomorrow night/early morning Friday has a better chance of snow to low levels than today

[cheshire snow]

Just to prove a point  this is why you should totally ignore GFS Snow charts

up to 0600hrs Friday Morning

Manchester Airport 12.5cm of snow

Altrincham 1.9cm of snow

Distance between the two about 3 miles

C.S  

Taken from the 12z GFS

Edited March 2, 2016 by cheshire snow

[SP1986]

driving rain outside, gusty winds etc etc.. usually winter tale. 

Today was quite interesting, no snow in Heswall, however, Neston just down the road saw some sleet/snow for an hour or so this morning, none settled, but that shows what an unfavourable situation Heswall is actually in, perched on a hill isn't always wonderful, as it means in west wind, we're blasted with warm sea air and high dewpoints, yet lower down and in the shelter, Neston has lower dewpoints and thus snow. 

That's happened twice this year, and once last year, but the scenario last time was even more remarkable, as it was raining so no snow fell or lay here, yet in Neston way, and towards Chester, snow settled quite thickly. 

Edited March 2, 2016 by SP1986

[snowingtequila]

24 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just to prove a point  this is why you should totally ignore GFS Snow charts

up to 0600hrs Friday Morning

Manchester Airport 12.5cm of snow

Altrincham 1.9cm of snow

Distance between the two about 3 miles

C.S  

Taken from the 12z GFS

I have no faith in GFS snow charts but there is often a snow difference between Altrincham and The Airport. Historically one side of the runway tunnel will have snow and you will come through the other side and there will be none 

[Darren Bown]

19 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

driving rain outside, gusty winds etc etc.. usually winter tale. 

Today was quite interesting, no snow in Heswall, however, Neston just down the road saw some sleet/snow for an hour or so this morning, none settled, but that shows what an unfavourable situation Heswall is actually in, perched on a hill isn't always wonderful, as it means in west wind, we're blasted with warm sea air and high dewpoints, yet lower down and in the shelter, Neston has lower dewpoints and thus snow. 

That's happened twice this year, and once last year, but the scenario last time was even more remarkable, as it was raining so no snow fell or lay here, yet in Neston way, and towards Chester, snow settled quite thickly. 

You're surrounded by too much water lol.

[TyphoonNow]

Buxton looks ripped for thurs night, friday. 

 

[Frost HoIIow]

52 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just to prove a point  this is why you should totally ignore GFS Snow charts

up to 0600hrs Friday Morning

Manchester Airport 12.5cm of snow

Altrincham 1.9cm of snow

Distance between the two about 3 miles

C.S  

Taken from the 12z GFS

Hi C.S. Can you give me a link to the chart you got the measurements from? cheers.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[cheshire snow]

14 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Hi C.S. Can you give me a link to the chart you got the measurements from? cheers.

They are generated charts from the GFS on XC weather,just type in your location sit back and watch

The Bull Poo unfold

C.S 

Edited March 2, 2016 by cheshire snow

[Spah1]

Think I'm going to move anywhere above 200m asl that always seems to be the cut off point. 

[Frost HoIIow]

10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Think I'm going to move anywhere above 200m asl that always seems to be the cut off point. 

Anywhere above 250m here in Oldham borough tends to do fine in almost all the marginal situations and get's absolutely buried in the less marginal ones. Believe it or not even at 200m it can be hit and miss the odd time. Some streets in the Sholver & Moorside area of Oldham are 300m. If I could move there I would but the missus won't so I'm stuck down here at *only* 93m! suppose to someone at the coast I am quite high up lol

Edited March 2, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[James M]

33 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Anywhere above 250m here in Oldham borough tends to do fine in almost all the marginal situations and get's absolutely buried in the less marginal ones. Believe it or not even at 200m it can be hit and miss the odd time. Some streets in the Sholver & Moorside area of Oldham are 300m. If I could move there I would but the missus won't so I'm stuck down here at *only* 93m! suppose to someone at the coast I am quite high up lol

Sholver and moorside are good for height but they are bit rough lol

Edited March 2, 2016 by James M

[ManiaMuse]

It's annoyingly windy out there at the moment.

 

When's it meant to calm down?

[Darren Bown]

The wind is horrendous outside, I think it must be gusting 50+ at times. Windier even than when we've had yellow wind warnings.

[Miamay]

3 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 I really like the look off tomorrow night into Friday morning IMBY.  Wind directions look more  favourable, and cold air  seems to undercut more and more as the night goes on.  Wins look to fall light  for a time in the early hours, so evaporative cooling may play a part as well.  I fancy our chances more with this one., me  and  The people in that narrow corridor of so far  snowless coast from Formby point down into the Wirral. 

Hope so - youve been spot on anytime theres been snow warnings in place in us not getting any.  Cant believe we havent seen 1 flake this winter !! Met office showing heavey snow for friday between 6am & 9am. 

Edited March 2, 2016 by Miamay

[chicken soup]

The meto appear to have upgraded snow for my area tommorow ...heavy snow symbols now from 2am to 10 am.

[northwestsnow]

40 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

The meto appear to have upgraded snow for my area tommorow ...heavy snow symbols now from 2am to 10 am.

They are pretty worthless im afraid , they were showing heavy snow here on tues night, it rained all night!!  Edit although i think you are quite well placed for later cs

 

Edited March 3, 2016 by northwestsnow

[iand61]

Currently -1.5c so another scraping of the car windscreen looks on the cards.

Snow may have been in short supply again this winter but frost has been a regular visitor, certainly over the last few weeks.

the upcoming snow event......not getting my hopes up and don't expect much more than yesterday's poor attempt but happy to be wrong.

 

[Weather-history]

Unusual one this because the coldest 850hpas are not to the north of rainband but come into the south. Could the southern flank of the rainband be the greatest risk for any low level snow?

 

 

[shadowfax]

Just watched BBC news and its looking good for my area tomorrow the front is rotating and seems to staying put most of the day!

[dodge]

Sunny start to the day, cloud may roll in later.  Fresh chill in the air.  Could be an filthy day tomorrow regardless of any wintry prospects.  It will be a fine marginal line once again, and most will be the side with the cold rain+bone chilling wind.

[karyo]

17 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

Sunny start to the day, cloud may roll in later.  Fresh chill in the air.  Could be an filthy day tomorrow regardless of any wintry prospects.  It will be a fine marginal line once again, and most will be the side with the cold rain+bone chilling wind.

I think some areas will see snow tomorrow morning (at the back of the rain band as colder uppers move in from the time but as it pivots as slowly moves south, the snow will turn back to sleet/rain as less cold uppers come from the north. Possibly quite a bit of snow for the Pennines.

Then perhaps one more wintry chance on Sunday night.

[cheshire snow]

On Wednesday, March 02, 2016 at 4:38 AM, feb1991blizzard said:

bacwell rain now. 

Rain at your altitude that does not bode eell

^^^^^

Why wont it let me delete???

Anyway not to worry

So here we are again part two of will it or wont it saga

My educated guess is that low ground will again struggle to see

Snow maybe some slushy deposits if the PPN is heavey enoughh

For modest high ground i fully expect a amber warning for

Significant snow later this morning with perhaps 15-20cm in

The sweet spot,the rain/snow band goes no were fast and just

Pivots and stalls over us PPN still around into tomoRrow afternoon.

And then Sunday we do it all again with the next system from the

NW.

Well at least its not boring

Have a good day

C.S

 

 

[Liam J]

Sun coming out and it's quite pleasant in light winds, was 2c at dawn, up to 7.1c now. Warning saying 200-300m for accumulating snow later so probably rain to lower levels, no surprise there! Getting used to cold rain...  

[Alexis]

Philip Avery going for snow only above 200m tomorrow. 

[frosty ground]

At low levels, rain or sleet is more likely. However, any heavier bursts of precipitation could readily turn to snow almost anywhere to give a more localised covering of 1 to 2 cm.