Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[West is Best]

Agreed Shaky, although actually the GFS projects a potentially significant snow event Monday.

I await the GFS ensembles with great interest because the UKMO is very different from the GFS control and later ECM stages. In fact the UKMO tantalises us at T144 with the faintest hint, no more, of the holy grail for all cold lovers. Look north from the UK here and you can see a very definite Omega shape. The Omega block is what cold pilgrims dream of through the hot summer months and dismal Atlantic days. It out scores the Greenland High. It's more rare than an albatross on Alderney.

Edited January 14, 2016 by West is Best

[Iceberg]

You have to wonder how much effect the sub tropical system will have over the next 3-4 days.  Nhc have upped its intensity and on sat it has a clear eye feature. Currently proved to be 60kts and sub 985 very few models or ens members have this accurate atm. 

[Essex snowman]

Wow models have all downgraded since last nights output hope for another flip to cold output today 

[shotski]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Sorry folks! But there really seems to have been a massive flip overnight towards ending the cold spell middle of next week.

UKMET is kinda of keeping it chilly with a high slack bang over us at 144. GFS has a mushy breakdown around 120 and I cannot even bring myself to comment on the ECM 168

just as it was looking so good and the professionals were suggesting it would be decent duration, the models have flipped hugely.

 

See icebergs post above. 

Maybe short term pain for long term gain. 

Edited January 14, 2016 by shotski

[West is Best]

3 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Wow models have all downgraded since last nights output hope for another flip to cold output today 

There's no 'downgrade' on the UKMO

[blizzard81]

Massive downgrades this morning compared to yesterdays runs. I think some people were a little premature in declaring the ukmo as the winner on this one.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Sorry folks! But there really seems to have been a massive flip overnight towards ending the cold spell middle of next week.

UKMET is kinda of keeping it chilly with a high slack bang over us at 144. GFS has a mushy breakdown around 120 and I cannot even bring myself to comment on the ECM 168

just as it was looking so good and the professionals were suggesting it would be decent duration, the models have flipped hugely.

 

So if you read the Posts from the peeps that knows the score and they put together such an informative post then why would you ignore what they say and do exactly what we're told not to do which is get caught up in the emotional roller coaster of day to day models ? 

Not saying the weather will never break down . I mean a 8/9 day cold spell is pretty good in any year . Just a shame that many haven't saw much snow but plenty of time for changes yet. 

As ever it's a developing situation and one wobble from the UKMO doesn't mean game over .

[chris55]

Model disagreements again this morning.

GFS brings in snow Monday but as a result milder air is quicker to return

UKMO keeps the Atlantic well south Monday, then keeps us cold and dry with a big high centred over us.

ECM brings the Atantic much closer Monday and then just swoops the milder air in from the south west as we head through the week.

So no clear cut forecast can be made yet re Monday's possible fronts and where we go from there. Though the overall trend is fir the cold to ebb away into next week.

 

 

[blizzard81]

Just now, West is Best said:

There's no 'downgrade' on the UKMO

The ukmo has downgraded. No sign of an undercut now.

[stainesbloke]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Massive downgrades this morning compared to yesterdays runs. I think some people were a little premature in declaring the ukmo as the winner on this one.

Why? The UKMO are keeping to their cold, blocked theme. 

[West is Best]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ukmo has downgraded. No sign of an undercut now.

This is where the model thread gets tiresome. 

The UKMO has a massively cold pool sitting slap bang over the UK with the first tentative signs of an Omega Block to our north. Instead of the Atlantic attempting to push through the cold pool isn't shifting anywhere on the UKMO. There's no 'downgrade' whatsoever.

[West is Best]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Why? The UKMO are keeping to their cold, blocked theme. 

Quite

[joggs]

Well I for one would rather have a GFS snowy breakdown than just the high slowly sinking and winds turning more Atlantic based.

[i luv snow]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Massive downgrades this morning compared to yesterdays runs. I think some people were a little premature in declaring the ukmo as the winner on this one.

The UKMO has been consistently and solid over last 2/3 days. This is one run where the undercut isn't there but it it is still great for cold. ECM and GFS are still chopping and changing. So I wouldn't count your chickens just yet... it is not wise to have such rollercoaster reactions to each and every single run of each model.

[Essex snowman]

Sorry it's early and didn't look at charts correctly still a lot to be positive this morning hope for more upgrades today 

[West is Best]

That ain't no downgrade.

If, and it's a big if, this chart proved correct it holds the potential unlock on something sustained and deep. It's quite unusual to see the UKMO going against ECM like this, and we need to remember it only goes out to T144, but this is as exciting a potential chart as I can recall seeing. I'd rate that nascent Omega Block to the north as little better than 10% chance right now, but were it to happen all hell would break loose. Very interesting.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

20 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Agreed Shaky, although actually the GFS projects a potentially significant snow event Monday.

I await the GFS ensembles with great interest because the UKMO is very different from the GFS control and later ECM stages. In fact the UKMO tantalises us at T144 with the faintest hint, no more, of the holy grail for all cold lovers. Look north from the UK here and you can see a very definite Omega shape. The Omega block is what cold pilgrims dream of through the hot summer months and dismal Atlantic days. It out scores the Greenland High. It's more rare than an albatross on Alderney.

You can see the deep low pressure in the west atlantic is causing uncertainty and with a core low heights of 960mb you can see why the UKMO struggles to send it under . 

But analysing the situation over our area we have low heights into Europe.  . Low heights in scandi . The only place that high will go is north west . You can see the slight ridging  trying to pull it northwest . Of course it can just stay over the top of us but I think there's too much pressure from most angles there for that to happen . Let's see where we go from here but I personally won't be surprised to see nights building north again .

Edited January 14, 2016 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[MR EXTREMES]

When we all see these downgrades at t96 or less then I'd agree.

as iceberg suggested sub tropical system is getting rather excited now so it will play havoc with the models.

And to be fair a breakdown at some point is inevitable but does not mean things won't change again later and it doesn't mean winter is over.

europe in the freezer nothing going through that wall cold that easy.

[That ECM]

t144 for all 3 ukmo best of them but the likelihood of the high going south as the low out west goes over the top is strong imo. 

Not what I want, just what I see. 

 

 

[sparky1972]

morning all, slightly dispondant in here so far, my first stop in the morning is the met office 7 day forecast, temps creeping back upto 6c by this time next week with cloudy skies, the weatheroutlook says 9c by thurs and 13c come friday, so i guess the milder air is favoured to come back from wed/thurs like the bbc forecast said, but here is hoping tonight that the models can give back some hope of a longer colder period, with a little snow, well, alot of snow would be better, lol.  keep up the good work all

[Liam J]

Not great output this morning with the cold spell being shortened quite significantly, we were taking steps in the right direction but seem to have jumped backwards overnight, GFS & ECM especially. UKMO is still OK and would keep cold air locked in at the surface for longer with a slow increase in temps as the air is sourced from the Atlantic filtering around the high.  

00z UKMO does look quite different to the last run, much preferred yesterdays 12z. 

12z  00z 

 

Edited January 14, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[mb018538]

Still a lot of model divergence this morning - heck, even the GFS ensembles start to spread badly after less than 3 days, which is most unusual, and shows how tricky this set up is. UKMO still out on it's own (slightly) building a large high over the UK. ECM and GFS flatten everything out and return us to a December mild fest.

[karyo]

42 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Agreed Shaky, although actually the GFS projects a potentially significant snow event Monday.

I await the GFS ensembles with great interest because the UKMO is very different from the GFS control and later ECM stages. In fact the UKMO tantalises us at T144 with the faintest hint, no more, of the holy grail for all cold lovers. Look north from the UK here and you can see a very definite Omega shape. The Omega block is what cold pilgrims dream of through the hot summer months and dismal Atlantic days. It out scores the Greenland High. It's more rare than an albatross on Alderney.

That's a slow sinker, not the holy grail for cold lovers!

You can see the orientation of the Atlantic low changing from 120 to 144 hours with the energy starting to get over the high rather than under. It is even more clear when you see the north hemisphere profile which shows the vortex intensifying over Greenland.

The 0z UKMO has definitely downgraded today and this Is a process that started yesterday afternoon and accelerated today.

Karyo

[mulzy]

27 minutes ago, West is Best said:

That ain't no downgrade.

If, and it's a big if, this chart proved correct it holds the potential unlock on something sustained and deep. It's quite unusual to see the UKMO going against ECM like this, and we need to remember it only goes out to T144, but this is as exciting a potential chart as I can recall seeing. I'd rate that nascent Omega Block to the north as little better than 10% chance right now, but were it to happen all hell would break loose. Very interesting.

What are you on about?  Once the low over in the Med clears to the east, the high will sink.  There is no further undercut to keep the high where it is.  It's a reasonable chart but it's a significant downgrade from previous runs.

As for the other models, the less said the better.

In summary - poor runs overnight - let#s wait for the EPS to see if there is a small glimmer...

[Ali1977]

Those thinking there hasn't been a downgrade are mistaken, whilst the UKMO is still very cold to Wed, it is plain to see it wont last. GFS and ECM roll over easier than yesterday's charts. We have a very cold weekend to look forward to with frosts that may linger all day. Still only mid Jan, coldest 6 weeks of the year to come going off stats - I don't think we've seen the best of Winter yet.