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phil nw.

Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

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57 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's starting to look like we are looking at a mild / very mild outlook through to the end of Jan and into feb guys...so at least the daffs will be happy!:D

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_41.png.2dd721bb47dc32fea641dbbe8847a7e5.png

Like the arrival of swallows in spring we await the return of knocker and his red crayon to the mod thread!!

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It's starting to look like we are looking at a mild / very mild outlook through to the end of Jan and into feb guys...so at least the daffs will be happy!:D

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_41.png.2dd721bb47dc32fea641dbbe8847a7e5.png

At 240hrs away I wouldn't pay to much attention to it personally, if it appears within the 144 hrs then I might take notice 

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To take a slightly different angle;

The theme of a vortex displacement to the Scandi region followed by a drop into Europe is exactly what we were chasing for mid-Jan to mid-Feb last year. The problem that year was that we didn't have much of an El Nino signal from the tropics to help us out. With the potential SSW falling short, we managed a short attempt at the Greenland blocking/Sceuro trough type scenario but it was not even close to what it could have been had we had a mature El Nino signal in place.

Well, we have one in place this year and that, really, is why there is so much hope among the experts for Feb despite last year's shortfall.

 

One thing I do remember from that period last winter was the models proving too reluctant to move high pressure west from Europe and into the mid-Atlantic ready for a push north. Just as we're seeing this year, struggles with the tropical forcing were the cause.

Food for thought, and as far as I'll go this morning after yesterday's analysis overdrive :crazy:

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16 minutes ago, fromey said:

At 240hrs away I wouldn't pay to much attention to it personally, if it appears within the 144 hrs then I might take notice 

There is plenty of mild within the reliable timeframe too fromey, up to 11c tomorrow and Saturday and then even milder.:)

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Thanks for pointing that out, but the way I look at things is if it's within 144 I begin to give it a little more credit anything outside that is just pie in the sky!! 

Less chance of being disappointed 

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As you were with regards the De Bilt ECM ensembles.

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

The extended ECM (days 11-15) ensemble mean broadly similar to last night's though there is a subtle shift in the negative height anomaly to our north.  It's moved eastward to be directly north of the UK as compared to a vicinity around Iceland.  Small shifts but there is some support for the low heights (PV) moving eastward over time...

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5 minutes ago, fromey said:

Thanks for pointing that out, but the way I look at things is if it's within 144 I begin to give it a little more credit anything outside that is just pie in the sky!! 

Less chance of being disappointed 

I absolutely agree and I'm certainly not writing off the rest of winter but it's fair to say the models are currently looking much milder for the foreseeable future.:)

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51 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I absolutely agree and I'm certainly not writing off the rest of winter but it's fair to say the models are currently looking much milder for the foreseeable future.:)

Ok Frosty we get your point; it's going to be mild

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Will be starting a fresh model thread shortly, so locking this one now. :) 

New thread open here:

 

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