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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016


phil nw.

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3 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

It's not from Alex. Alex is no more as of about now as other posters have tried to point out numerous times!

Ok dead Alex, it's just easier to refer to and sounds marginally better than the depression to the West of us....12_30_naptypemslp.thumb.png.37f916424729

Anyway, this depicts the band quite well from dead, gone, most definitely over Alex.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Bigger picture ... current cold spell relents slowly with perhaps some back and forth along stalled frontal boundaries, some may cash in with snow, then a volatile period end of next week into last week of month, one or two much milder days seem inevitable but strong signals for a colder turn at end of January again with the more desirable easterly source. Baltic and North Sea have not cooled that much yet, a bitter easterly over those waters will become moisture laden very quickly and if it is cold enough phase problems should sort themselves out within five miles of coastlines.

Thanks Roger, an interesting outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

That really is some day to day difference....ECM  12z at  T120 yesterday v T96 today

ECM1-120.GIF?15-0ECM1-96.GIF?15-0

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ahhh,

Its like pulling teeth at times.

Euro4 and gfs precipitation charts in unworthy territories such as now' are as much use as a blind man on a sight seeing holiday! 

Its point in direction. .is pointless! 

Infer/de-fer' in modelling what's falling from the sky will be a pointless task. .given fluctuations in time progression, and is boundaries depending, within+72hrs...and unless it's falling outside your door..its marginal without height (atm).

And atm is where its at with both geographical assertion and finalised. 

No doubt there will be a few surprises within+3 days but its an open book to say the least

It's nowcast or nothing in regards to snowfall. .from here on in!!!

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

Weatherweb siding with GEFS and ECM ensemble means; they're quite bullish WRT a return to mild SWerlies through the rest of January.  They expect mild air gradually mixing-out the cold, with ppn. mainly confined to the north-west.  CFS apparently agrees, though I know many here consider that model to be useless:

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
26 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Euro4 still showing a weakening band of sleet/snow moving down from the NW sat night/sun morning, could give some a dusting but looks marginal the further West you are and the further South you are the lighter the ppn will get. Could be good for West Yorkshire for example

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Su 17.01.2016 00 GMT

Looks like staying to the west of West Yorks going by euro4, mucks?

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

At 120 the two lows phase and try to head north east, though at 96 i would have thought another undercut was imminent. With all the interrun changes of late i wouldnt be surprised to see tomorrows 12z owing the undercut!

ECM1-120.GIF?15-0 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Weatherweb siding with GEFS and ECM ensemble means; they're quite bullish WRT a return to mild SWerlies through the rest of January.  They expect mild air gradually mixing-out the cold, with ppn. mainly confined to the north-west.  CFS apparently agrees, though I know many here consider that model to be useless:

 

 

 

They keep predicting it and it will happen eventually,  April maybe.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM doesn't quite manage it at T120hrs but could do in future runs. The thing with the ECM is if you get snow its likely to stay as that and Tuesday and Wednesday nights could see some very cold minima under clear skies and snow cover.

Given the differences we're seeing not just between different outputs but within each model hard to say what the correct solution will end up being.

It could be anything from the GEM to the UKMO or another solution. I'd be surprised given the ECM operational run if theres not a cluster in the its ensembles pulling in an east/ne flow into the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Well it's now Thursday before most of the colder air gets pushed away according to the ECM.

ECM0-144.GIF?15-0

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Looks like staying to the west of West Yorks going by euro4, mucks?

Fair enough but to me I would say East Lancs West Yorkshire are well placed for snow rather than sleety mix or staying dry. It will change again next run anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Well it's now Thursday before most of the colder air gets pushed away according to the ECM.

ECM0-144.GIF?15-0

Yeah and that is just the upper air, it would still be cold at the surface away from the far NW with night frost.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Look at that cold air now out to the east, will we tap into it???

ECH0-144.GIF.thumb.png.c86da6eeef16b1e7c

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, weather eater said:

Almost good and then it sinks the high, not sure I take any of it seriously any more

ECM1-144.gif

Just don't look to far ahead! The Met are even struggling on Sundays details!! and that's only at T48 lol. At present anything beyond, and including Monday is open to significant change IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

This really has been one of the weirdest ever weeks looking at the models.

Can't remember a time with so much chopping and changing, its been like the plot of a film with so many last gasp reprieves then suddenly hanging on by a thread in terms of cold.

As of tonight I think the big news is the ECM because its not a big leap of faith to see the T96hrs to T120hrs looking different in terms of trough disruption.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

As of tonight I think the big news is the ECM because its not a big leap of faith to see the T96hrs to T120hrs looking different in terms of trough disruption.

 

That's almost the form horse, going by the last few days!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Something-else I've unearthed - a thread for discussing previous winters: 

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
1 hour ago, swilliam said:

Because of the angle of the front the winds in ppn area would from the SE and coming from the cold pool on the continent.  This would mean air with low DPs even the upper air temps are quite high  - could even be an inversion. For the Aperge at this time the 850s are about -3 at the time the snow falls anyway. V small changes in the model output give big changes in the weather in this situation

arpegeuk-16-57-0.thumb.png.67b5db1005bdearpegeuk-1-72-0.thumb.png.07cb1bc136ce77

 

In fact a lot of the snow shown accumulating comes on Sunday Morning from the area of moisture to the NW which dives S

 

arpegeuk-1-36-0.thumb.png.f0d396165974acarpegeuk-45-48-0.thumb.png.040382bd4b8a1

 

Be nice if that came off.

 

 

 

Many Thanks for that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
7 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Look at that cold air now out to the east, will we tap into it???

ECH0-144.GIF.thumb.png.c86da6eeef16b1e7c

I'd say the T144 chart is a step towards a Scandi influence, though T168 bulldozes through as most previous ECM runs did ... 72 hours earlier. Well, it's failing on that one - another break-off from the Atlantic trough at T168 and that mild spell might be off! So another nail-biting 48 hours to come...

 

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