Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[JOPRO]

57 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's starting to look like we are looking at a mild / very mild outlook through to the end of Jan and into feb guys...so at least the daffs will be happy!

Like the arrival of swallows in spring we await the return of knocker and his red crayon to the mod thread!!

[fromey]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It's starting to look like we are looking at a mild / very mild outlook through to the end of Jan and into feb guys...so at least the daffs will be happy!

At 240hrs away I wouldn't pay to much attention to it personally, if it appears within the 144 hrs then I might take notice 

[Singularity]

To take a slightly different angle;

The theme of a vortex displacement to the Scandi region followed by a drop into Europe is exactly what we were chasing for mid-Jan to mid-Feb last year. The problem that year was that we didn't have much of an El Nino signal from the tropics to help us out. With the potential SSW falling short, we managed a short attempt at the Greenland blocking/Sceuro trough type scenario but it was not even close to what it could have been had we had a mature El Nino signal in place.

Well, we have one in place this year and that, really, is why there is so much hope among the experts for Feb despite last year's shortfall.

 

One thing I do remember from that period last winter was the models proving too reluctant to move high pressure west from Europe and into the mid-Atlantic ready for a push north. Just as we're seeing this year, struggles with the tropical forcing were the cause.

Food for thought, and as far as I'll go this morning after yesterday's analysis overdrive 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY JAN 21ST 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   Milder Southerly winds will develop across the UK with troughs of Low pressure moving East across the UK tonight and tomorrow followed by milder SW winds for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles will rise markedly over the UK over the next 24-48hrs. Already above 5000ft in the SW and 2000ft in the East freezing levels will rise further above all summits of the UK to be as high as 10000ft in the SW later tomorrow.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mild and changeable with rain at times especially in the NW. Windy at times too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow to blow across the UK in a West to east direction over the coming days. It then backs SW to NE across NW Britain before eventually settling West to East and generally to the North of the UK during the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is largely focused on mild Atlantic SW'lies running throughout the period this morning due to a persistent belt of High pressure lying to the South of the UK and a strong of Low pressure to the North. Occasional troughs will move east across the UK at times within a lot of mild air when temperatures will reach average levels at worst and above average at times. Any frosts will be limited to the short interludes behind cold fronts and in the South as High pressure to the South comes closer at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is very similar in theme to the Operational Run with only day to day variances between when and when it doesn't rain. So changeable is the message and it looks often likely to be mild and breezy before things turn decidedly wet and windy late in the period as Low pressure crosses rapidly West to East across the UK as the pressure gradient steepens across Britain with westerly gales very likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 60% pack with High pressure either to the SW of the UK with strong Westerly winds and rain at times with temperatures at least close to average. Other smaller packs show more influence from High pressure to the South of the Uk with conversely 5% showing really stormy conditions with Westerly gales and Low pressure close to northern Scotland.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an altogether milder period coming up as SW winds and occasional troughs of Low pressure move NE across the UK from today with rain at times for all with the heaviest and most persistent falls across the North and West but with brighter mild spells as well especially across the South and East. generally windy weather is likely too at times with SW gales at times in exposure especially next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today illustrate the milder conditions well with the next 24 hours seeing complex troughs crossing east over the UK with mild SW'lies taking control well in to next week with some rain at times especially in the NW and in exposure to mild moist SW winds.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows a mild 10 days to come with SW winds establishing in the next 24 hours and lasting throughout the next 10 days. Troughs within that flow will bring rain at times for all but most frequent in the NW at first until the latter stages of the run indicate gales and heavy rain for all as the pressure gradient is shown to steepen across the UK.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows another prolonged mild spell to come with the last of the cold air today shifting away East with the rest of the run illustrating West to SW winds and rain at times the order of the theme of NAVGEM this morning with the usual suspects in the North and West seeing the most rainfall while the east and SE see longer drier spells and mildest temperatures. 

ECM ECM today shows the breakdown today towards milder and wetter weather with the theme of High pressure to the SE then South developing through next week keeping a very flat pattern of Westerly winds and mild conditions for all of the UK next week with rain at times most prolific in the North. It's not until Day 10 when there is an embryonic signal that High pressure ridging across the Atlantic could introduce a colder interlude soon after day 10 although it's difficult to ascertain whether this is a pattern shift or just another passing ridge.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is very supportive of a pattern highlighted by the Operational run with a very strong signal that Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South will be present across the UK 10 days from now with mild and occasionally wet weather in a strong westerly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning have strengthened their theme that mild SW or Westerly winds will be blowing across the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO  at 99.4 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.0 pts then GFS at 87.7 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.1 pts to 65.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.5 pts to 46.6 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   It appears my optimism of yesterday has fallen on deaf ears within the output this morning as all models now show a sustained period of mild Atlantic SW or West winds likely to persists across the UK over the next 10-14 days. The problem appears to be a Winter long one this year that High pressure remains too high down to the South of the UK and the Meditteranean. This permits the Jet stream to ride unabated across Northern Britain and Europe with a never ending river of mild and moist WSW winds across the UK aided by the Azores High being ever present too. The cold block shown with more resilience to the East on yesterdays output has been all but pushed right back well into Russia today with little hope of any cold from that source any time soon. Instead we have just one embryo to grasp and that is from ECM at day 10 this morning which shows a ridging process over the Atlantic which may or may not result in a hiatus in the mild and windy pattern likely up until that point. However, it is a shot in the dark and to be honest the charts this morning represent some of the poorest output for those looking for a return to cold this Winter. So with so little to look at other than days of mild and changeable weather its most definitely going to be into February at least before we see our next shot at cold in the UK and at the moment it is hard to see where that is likely to come from if the current synoptic prospects remain as stubborn as it seems.  

Next Update Friday January 22nd 2016 from 09:00 

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, fromey said:

At 240hrs away I wouldn't pay to much attention to it personally, if it appears within the 144 hrs then I might take notice 

There is plenty of mild within the reliable timeframe too fromey, up to 11c tomorrow and Saturday and then even milder.

[Hairy Celt]

Bit early in the day for grasping at embryos, Gibby...

[fromey]

Thanks for pointing that out, but the way I look at things is if it's within 144 I begin to give it a little more credit anything outside that is just pie in the sky!! 

Less chance of being disappointed 

[mulzy]

As you were with regards the De Bilt ECM ensembles.

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

The extended ECM (days 11-15) ensemble mean broadly similar to last night's though there is a subtle shift in the negative height anomaly to our north.  It's moved eastward to be directly north of the UK as compared to a vicinity around Iceland.  Small shifts but there is some support for the low heights (PV) moving eastward over time...

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

Thanks for pointing that out, but the way I look at things is if it's within 144 I begin to give it a little more credit anything outside that is just pie in the sky!! 

Less chance of being disappointed 

I absolutely agree and I'm certainly not writing off the rest of winter but it's fair to say the models are currently looking much milder for the foreseeable future.

[John Badrick]

51 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I absolutely agree and I'm certainly not writing off the rest of winter but it's fair to say the models are currently looking much milder for the foreseeable future.

Ok Frosty we get your point; it's going to be mild

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Ok Frosty we get your point; it's going to be mild

That's putting it mildly

[Paul]

Will be starting a fresh model thread shortly, so locking this one now.  

New thread open here: