Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Singularity]

What would otherwise do us good does us harm in that the jet is further south due to the Euro High being weakened.

Although that could be considered a good thing for getting a colder regime back before long. This run so very nearly gets the lower heights pushing down into eastern Europe which would a reasonable finishing point for Jan given the expected trends thereafter.

That extended trough off the U.S. days 4-5 is a real troublemaker, and seems to be a result of the jet being stronger at that time for whatever reason. Here's hoping the short-term AAM corrections continue and prove to be enough to tip the balance the other way again with that low moving across slower.

 

Once we get to around +168 it's best not to pay attention to GFS much whichever way it's going, as by then it's handling of the AAM is likely to be considerably wide of the mark based on past performance this season, with way too much westerly momentum being added.

As I've said before I've no idea whether ECM is much better with respect to AAM predictions but given the talk of the ensembles having some suggestion of height rises to the W/NW by day 10, I reckon they at least (not necessarily the det. run as of the 00z) are probably not dropping the AAM so far during the next week, resulting in a more amplified pattern to work with.

[Jason M]

Crikey, 12Z is a seriously warm run. From 120 hours out to 240 much of England stays at 10C plus (even at night). That would put rocket fuel under the CET!!

edit: from 120 hours much of England is above 10c and stays that way until 324 hours!!! If that came off on top of December we would smash the record warmest winter stats into oblivion!

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by Jason M

[MR EXTREMES]

46 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So far the GFS 12hrs run is less favourable, more energy spilling east near Iceland and weaker pressure rises near Svalbard.

If the GFS gets to an easterly here from its T102hrs set up then it will need to overcome more hurdles.

awful gfs and ukmo gem as well.

its now we await some strat event and fingers crossed mid feb might be the start of winter down here in the saff anyway

[Singularity]

So we have UKMO not wanting to go with the split jet getting up to much at all and also more progressive to our NE. In fact it beggars the mind just how progressive it is.

Yet it may not be all bad, as this chart for +144 shows a ridge to the west and trough digging south which I believe would draw the Euro High out to the west over the following couple of days, at which point the added amplification upstream gives rise to the potential for height rises to the NW as per the possibility appearing in the ECM ens.

So we could be seeing an argument over two routes to two different manifestations of colder weather. I'm not sure we can really go for a hybrid in this case.

I'm also nervously aware that the issues capturing the effects of the background El Nino state could mean that none of the output can really be trusted much at all beyond +96, maybe even sooner. We've had murmurings along such lines from Fergie in recent times, after all. Not at all helpful for someone who has a role to play in an 8-14 day outlook being issued before the day is out!

[warrenb]

Looks like the Control may be better, the issue is a tiny piece of energy left behind by the trough dropping into Europe. Less energy left behind in the Control and the link can be made with the high to the east.

[mountain shadow]

30 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Yet it may not be all bad, as this chart for +144 shows a ridge to the west and trough digging south which I believe would draw the Euro High out to the west over the following couple of days, at which point the added amplification upstream gives rise to the potential for height rises to the NW as per the possibility appearing in the ECM 

I'm in agreement Singularity.  That chart shows promise with the split trop vortex, East Pacific amplification and signs of the Euro high pulling into the NW Atlantic as the Greenland PV lobe shifts to Scandinavia. 

These phantom Easterlies are becoming tedious though.

Lets see if tonight's ECM shows any signs of Atlantic amplification by day 10.

Edited January 20, 2016 by mountain shadow

[warrenb]

As you can see on the 180 Control the high is there but in classic style the GFS tries desperately to kill it with shortwaves. 

[legritter]

i,m realy hoping for something a bit interesting on tonights ecm run .

Gfs all over the shop ,yes it could be on to something with all this big variation so hoping it comes back to previouse couple of runs .

just a case of being patient which of course we all are arent we """ plenty of very cold air to our east and north east we just need a kick from somewhere ,lets see where we are once we get the next 24 hrs under our belts ,good posts today in hard times ,cheers .

[Ali1977]

Well after that GFS run I'll post GEFS 14s FI chart just for fun, as it's not too bad...

The METOs outlook is actually ok so let's just get the next week out the way with then things will get much more interesting!!! I'd put Atleast a £1 on that.

[terrier]

Well the gfs is an Absolute nightmare tonight. But it's been flopping about like a fish out of water for last few runs. Still think we will see better charts as we head into Feb. Anyone fretting over us been under a south westerly flow until March I suggest read Ian fergusons update a few pages back. Very interesting time ahead come Feb I feel. And I'm sure we will see some nice charts from the models early Feb onwards. 

[booferking]

Stronger high @96 ECM this could go like the control run GFS.

Yep not quite strong enough bulled over by Atlantic  @144 Atlantic incoming more runs needed not far away maybe tomorrow we might see surprise then.

Edited January 20, 2016 by booferking

[tight isobar]

Ecm looking a lot like 6z gfs atm...lets see where this goes!!

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm looking a lot like 6z gfs atm...lets see where this goes!!

Not so sure it's that good at 144, the GFS 6z had a cut off low near Portugal, that's not there on the ECM....

[Timmytour]

The difference a day makes for five days hence.... yesterday v today

  v 

No much change, but enough to keep a hope for something brewing underneath somewhere...certainlt a bigger push across Scandinavia

[Captain Shortwave]

Well it is a start

That high needs to back a long way west but at least we have a block reaching the eastern side of Scandinavia instead of the high being back over Siberia like previous output.

[marksp]

this link shows some of the issues we are having at the moment. not sure of any technical info with the chart but them westerly winds look naff.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-1.22,51.20,512

[Lynxus]

4 minutes ago, marksp said:

this link shows some of the issues we are having at the moment. not sure of any technical info with the chart but them westerly winds look naff.

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-1.22,51.20,512

Thats @10Hpa so quite high up. Pretty much the polar vortex if im not mistaken.

I dont think it has a HUGE direct impact on our weather

This is a bit more interesting at the 850hpa mark.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-1.22,51.20,512

[MR EXTREMES]

I can't find anything supporting return of cold!

lots and lots of talk of positive nao and ao 

although seems to be dryer further south but not cold long drawn sw flow.

i think we need to split the vortex or at least have it displaced.

ive excepted that a north north east or easterly are not likely right into fi.

 

[mb018538]

It might just be me....but are the runs starting to look a bit more unsettled again? I'm sure a couple of days ago both the GFS and ECM were showing a strong high build over the UK, now we have a shallow low crossing the UK, as well as interference from other low pressure areas. Looking quite wet again to me, especially in the NW where 70mm+ is forecast in the next 6 days!

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

It might just be me....but are the runs starting to look a bit more unsettled again? I'm sure a couple of days ago both the GFS and ECM were showing a strong high build over the UK, now we have a shallow low crossing the UK, as well as interference from other low pressure areas. Looking quite wet again to me, especially in the NW where 70mm+ is forecast in the next 6 days!

I think you're correct, looks like a spell of zonel Westerlies /South Westerlies for at least a week....

[chris55]

Easterly incoming..... where is MR Data when you need him ala "where did that easterly come from"

[Redwood]

7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Easterly incoming..... where is MR Data when you need him ala "where did that easterly come from"

why is that n easterly incoming (too my untrained eye)

[mb018538]

I'm fairly certain that wouldn't result in an easterly at all. It's still a small possibility (as shown by the 6z and a very small few ensemble members), but that ECM OP run tonight is just mild and unsettled right out until day 10. One for the rubbish bin I'm afraid.

[Fozfoster]

What has happened to mr data ?

[ANYWEATHER]

Just now, Fozfoster said:

What has happened to mr data ?

Hello, Hes called "Weather History"   now...