Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Timmytour]

I'd urge caution on the mention of the likes of Cohen and promises of narnia prospects in the future.  Many's a mild winter I've spent expectantly waiting for the change  to come as heralded by those who have interpret his forecasts.

In reality the winters of 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 were pretty good for cold lovers in the UK.  And so memories of those alluding to such prospects that we ended up enjoying are enhanced.  While memories that they forecast the same thing every year and are more often wrong are firmly suppressed by the hope that winters eternal

[Chris1986]

1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

All well and good Chris posting charts but without an explanation all that will do is confuse members who are learning . 

Do you no what that means ? 

Cheers

A Few posts up i posted a link to a full explanation of the SSW and it's effects Dr Choen is much better at explaining this than me. And as long as we continue to see the pv distorted or displaced I'm a happy man. I think at the end of the runs we are starting to see the effects of the trop strat trop coupling and it will be exciting to see this develop. I unfortunately can't get the charts For the temperature propagation from strat to trop which would show the temp changes in a better format.

[Chris1986]

5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'd urge caution on the mention of the likes of Cohen and promises of narnia prospects in the future.  Many's a mild winter I've spent expectantly waiting for the change  to come as heralded by those who have interpret his forecasts.

In reality the winters of 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 were pretty good for cold lovers in the UK.  And so memories of those alluding to such prospects that we ended up enjoying are enhanced.  While memories that they forecast the same thing every year and are more often wrong are firmly suppressed by the hope that winters eternal

 

I still reminisce about 2010, I can only live in hope and look for the cold to come  

GFS have been running the warming theme for a long time now In the strat, it's becoming exciting that it would appear to be coming to fruition.

From the below you can see the strat starting to warm. Exciting times!!

I am aware that the position of the PV is critical to establishing a cold theme for the UK but according to current model data, at the moment it looks good for us.

[Banbury]

35 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

This mornings model runs are quite possibly the best I've seen. If this theme continues Feb is going to be one to remember.

 

Don't forget just because there is a warming , it doesn't guarantee cold and snow

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

Although UKMO looks mild, it's actually quite a good chart to set the stage for something much colder a little later on, all that WAA and quite a nice profile to the east. An easterly developing from here wouldn't surprise me.

 

Doesn't appear to be much WAA on the ECM this morning though? In fact the ECM has looked as flat as a pancake in the last couple of runs :-(

[Paul_1978]

8 hours ago, Barry95 said:

All the signs and signals are there in the models for a very cold February...

 

That's interesting, but where is Tomasz getting that Easterly from? Absolutely no sign of that in today's models.

[stratty]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

That's interesting, but where is Tomasz getting that Easterly from? Absolutely no sign of that in today's models.

....he said it was one possibility.......which if you look at some ensemble members and other models it still is  

[mulzy]

The ECM ensembles (out to day 15) has pulled back on the idea of higher heights to the NE of the UK - now the higher heights are located over mainland Europe with lower than average heights located to the North West.  Disappointing but just one run...

Edited January 19, 2016 by mulzy

[MR EXTREMES]

Not to dampen the spirits but what the bcc weather does is provide a service to the public through a media output so public ratings must be taken into account also it's the met office that provide the data so this would suggest maybe our bbc coldie is getting a little to far ahead of himself like lots of us in this forum.

perhaps the inexperience crept in as not the norm to jump a extra week to suggest maybe an easterly of coarse there could be but nothing from the models yet suggest this but they have been close recently to modeling this outcome.

but the lack of evidence today would suggest different 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 19TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A ridge of High pressure building down across the UK will persist over the next few days before gradually moving away to the SE by Thursday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 2000ft apart from the far SW of England where the level is nearer 4000ft today. Snowfall is unlikely today away from the North and East coasts.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold at first then becoming milder and more changeable with rain at times from later this week especially towards the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will move East across the Atlantic before grinding to a halt near the far west of the UK later this week. It is then steered North with the whole pattern edging East. In the second week a cyclonic flow around the UK occurs before the flow strengthens and simplifies to more of a West to East flow across the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today focuses on removing the cold and dry air across the UK by the weekend as a trough of Low pressure brings less cold air, stronger winds and a spell of rain East across the UK. thereafter the main message is a NW/SE split in the weather with occasional rain in the NW where the mildest conditions will be to rather colder but dry conditions in the South and East with benign conditions with frost and fog patches by night. By the end of the run High pressure lies to the SW with a cool NW flow with some showers in the North and East perhaps wintry over the hills there.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is not too dissimilar to the Operational run at least in theme with High pressure to the SE maintaining a NW/SE split in the weather with sometimes rather cold conditions still likely in the East with the mildest conditions in the NW and extreme West where occasional rain is likely. The latter stages of the run shows more pronounced unsettled and windy weather in the NW with gales and rain for a time although effects of this for the South look limited and temporary.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning indicate a 65% pack with High pressure either to the SW or over the British Isles itself offering fine weather with some overnight frosts and fog. The remaining 35% of members show milder West or SW winds and rain at times in association with Low pressure to the North of Britain. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows High pressure receding away to the SE late this week with a SW flow following a trough of Low pressure from Friday delivering milder conditions with rain at times especially towards the North and West out to the start of next week at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today shows High pressure across the UK in the coming days before a gang of troughs move into the cold block bringing milder and stronger winds and rain to all areas through Friday with SW winds and occasional rain likely thereafter.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows much stronger resistance from High pressure parked across Europe. It's position to the SE after the brief spell of rain for many on Friday influences the South and East of the UK with occasional frosts for most of next week gradually easing North to extend influence to the more changeable NW too by the end of the run as it lies across the UK by then with more widespread frosts and overnight fog patches.

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a similar pattern with High pressure to the SE on this run just too far away to prevent the occasional intervention of troughs moving across the UK from the Atlantic in average temperatures and winds from a SW'ly quadrant.

ECM ECM today shows the breakdown on Friday with a spell of rain for all ushering in milder Atlantic SW'lies. Thereafter and through the remainder of the run mild SW winds largely persist with just brief bright and dry interludes perhaps with patchy frost in the South and rain at times for all most frequent and heavy in the North and West. Southern Britain is then shown to become dry and settled at the end of the period as a large High pressure area inches North into Southern Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the same distribution of High and Low pressure areas over and around Britain that it has over recent days and though there is wriggle room for more influence of High pressure to the SE most members maintain SW winds and mild and changeable conditions most likely in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have trended back again today to milder SW winds with rain at times across all areas for much of next week with rather less influence from High pressure to the East and SE than was shown yesterday.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 99.4 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.8 pts to UKMO at 87.9 pts then GFS at 87.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 65.3 pts over GFS's 64.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.6 pts to 47.1 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   We have another couple of days of the current cold spell to go before the Atlantic reclaims the air across the British Isles and brings a return to rain at times and milder temperatures too. At the moment we have High pressure building across the UK before it recedes away to the SE late in the week taking the cold and frosty conditions across the UK currently with it. Cloud and wind then increases from the SW later on Thursday with rain following. This extends East through all areas Friday followed on by brighter fresher weather for the weekend with nearer to average temperatures. For the rest of the period this morning all output show the only differences as being how much influence High pressure to the SE of the UK has on the East and South of the UK and the output today suggests the answer to that is rather less than was shown yesterday. This means that the incidence of occasional rain in the South as well is likely next week and temperatures should maintain largely average levels at least next week. However, being the High to the SE is only at arms length away there is still a chance of that is could reassert some influence across the South and East longer term with the return of frost and fog patches. What isn't show this morning is much in the way of a slip into wintry weather again with the Jet Stream and pressure patterns over and around the UK not conducive for this to develop. So it looks like February at least before we will see our next shot at Winter if this morning's output is to be believed.  

Next Update Tuesday January 19th 2016 from 09:00

[Shuga ice]

14 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

Not to dampen the spirits but what the bcc weather does is provide a service to the public through a media output so public ratings must be taken into account also it's the met office that provide the data so this would suggest maybe our bbc coldie is getting a little to far ahead of himself like lots of us in this forum.

perhaps the inexperience crept in as not the norm to jump a extra week to suggest maybe an easterly of coarse there could be but nothing from the models yet suggest this but they have been close recently to modeling this outcome.

but the lack of evidence today would suggest different 

I would say there is more of a chance of an easterly next week now that bbc have made the announcement.  The met office do tend to hold back on forecasts of predicting freeze ups and snow until they are confident.  The graphics shown on the bbc were similar to some of today's output.

[Purga]

Still looks like there are some decent cold options after an initial mild push over the weekend & early next week.

That possible 'easterly' may not be dead in the water yet!

Edited January 19, 2016 by Purga

[David Morse]

For the first time this winter the GFS is forecasting a major SSW event at the begining of Feb and this appears to be in line with Cohen's latest AO post. If this comes off then seasonal forecasting seems to have taken a mighty leap forward in both accuracy and precision.

[KTtom]

Personally I think TS forecast is being slightly blown out of proportion, the graphics are probably a little extreme to what he actually says, which is that with the jet riding south to north over western parts there is a risk of the continental air moving into eastern areas. He certainly doesn't mention the easterly winds his graphic seems to indicate.

[snowbob]

The models this morning do seem to go against the met forecast of last night, especially there own the ukmo.

 On the other hand could just be a flip flop like last week with the models.

seems strange the professional met would put a forecast out like that when they wasn't really buying in to the cold spell just gone. ( although he did say could happen )

interesting day of model runs today, especially the 12z

Edited January 19, 2016 by snowbob

[bobbydog]

before people get too carried away, can i just point out that Thomasz Shafernaker's forecast was NOT suggesting an easterly. he was explaining that rather than the atlantic blasting through to give us mild westerlies, the pattern we are in now may stall before backing west again. suggesting that the ridge will not collapse but may rebuild. the arrows on his chart were showing the direction of movement of the cold air rather than wind direction. that does of course increase the chances of anything from a northerly to an easterly depending how the pattern develops, so its still good news if he's right!

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Personally I think TS forecast is being slightly blown out of proportion, the graphics are probably a little extreme to what he actually says, which is that with the jet riding south to north over western parts there is a risk of the continental air moving into eastern areas. He certainly doesn't mention the easterly winds his graphic seems to indicate.

I commented on these BBC forecasts the other day and it appears they do not use the 12hrs model runs. When TS made that forecast the ECM was more bullish about pulling the Euro high further north. I doubt TS would have even mentioned an easterly if the forecast had been compiled using the 12hrs runs. As for today the models operational runs have flattened the pattern out and pulled the PV even further south and overall are dire IMO for any east/ne flow in the next 10 days.

We might just about scrape some surface cold if the high is edged a bit further north but the better trends of Sunday have fallen by the wayside.

[fergieweather]

4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Personally I think TS forecast is being slightly blown out of proportion, the graphics are probably a little extreme to what he actually says, which is that with the jet riding south to north over western parts there is a risk of the continental air moving into eastern areas. He certainly doesn't mention the easterly winds his graphic seems to indicate.

Correct: blown out of proportion and misinterpreted. Tom was simply highlighting potential for colder continental influence lingering to E and remaining a 'spoiler' to W'ward progression/providing further battleground focus. He wasn't suggesting an Easterly per se and no indication of such presently exists in UKMO model assessments. Hope that clarifies.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Correct: blown out of proportion and misinterpreted. Tom was simply highlighting potential for colder continental influence lingering to E and remaining a 'spoiler' to W'ward progression/providing further battleground focus. He wasn't suggesting an Easterly per se and no indication of such presently exists in UKMO model assessments. Hope that clarifies.

I think it was the graphics which were misleading rather than what TS was saying.

The models are firming up on the return of the PV to Greenland and the Euro high until month end.

The hope is that we then see increased signs of the SSW manifesting itself on the trop in later February into March.

[fergieweather]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I commented on these BBC forecasts the other day and it appears they do not use the 12hrs model runs. When TS made that forecast the ECM was more bullish about pulling the Euro high further north. I doubt TS would have even mentioned an easterly if the forecast had been compiled using the 12hrs runs.

No, we have 12z UKMO-GM by 1600hrs and 18z E4 by 2100hrs. They, plus all 12z EC-ENS and 12z MOGREPS, are seen before the bulletins at 2200hrs and all discussed in conference beforehand. As mentioned, Tom wasn't suggesting any modelled easterly.

[nick sussex]

The bitter irony here for cold and snow lovers is that these warmings of the strat which eventually might deliver a SSW are in effect causing an angry PV response. Think of it as a boxer in a match, whose taken some punishment and is really angry. Unless you knock him out you've expended a lot of effort, suffered some pain and end up have nothing to show for it.

The very good synoptics shown when we saw a more robust ridge towards Greenland were likely de-railed by those strat warmings as the PV reacted by increasing in strength and increasing the westerlies.

It's likely also that the better trends of the weekend have also now fallen victim to another strat warming which has induced another angry PV response.

So unless the possible SSW delivers then in effect all these warmings have just in effect derailed some better cold synoptics!

[legritter]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Correct: blown out of proportion and misinterpreted. Tom was simply highlighting potential for colder continental influence lingering to E and remaining a 'spoiler' to W'ward progression/providing further battleground focus. He wasn't suggesting an Easterly per se and no indication of such presently exists in UKMO model assessments. Hope that clarifies.

Great forum ,we have time to discuss the models ,television presenters get very little time to explain ,twenty years ago i wrote to bbc  with regards this .

i,m pretty sure we need to be patient ,as signs are afoot , cheers gang .

[nick sussex]

10 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

No, we have 12z UKMO-GM by 1600hrs and 18z E4 by 2100hrs. They, plus all 12z EC-ENS and 12z MOGREPS, are seen before the bulletins at 2200hrs and all discussed in conference beforehand. As mentioned, Tom wasn't suggesting any modelled easterly.

I'm not talking about the normal tv forecasts Ian. More the Week Ahead one and the other day it clearly used the UKMO outputs from the 00hrs because its synoptics were nothing like the UKMO fax charts done that night and could not have evolved to what was shown for this coming Friday.

Edited January 19, 2016 by nick sussex

[Methuselah]

Please folks, can we keep on-topic...This isn't the Tomasz Shaffernacker interpretation thread.

[jvenge]

On the plus side, unlike December, cold air is never really too far away from the UK. I've not managed to look more than 10 days out so far, anything of interest in the more unreliable time frame?