Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Ali1977]

Just incase you thought the Op was an outlier, take a look at the Ens at day 10....lots of interest here.

Few examples below.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

Amazing some of the early charts,that are showing for early February, would be proper cold if to verify not like the taster what we are having now!

[winterof79]

They are starting to think about a shift

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Just incase you thought the Op was an outlier, take a look at the Ens at day 10....lots of interest here.

Looks like the amplification signal is strongly supported, but with little consensus on how it manifests with respect to the blocking.

As Nick has just said/implied, a sharp enough low with trough disruption and low heights moving SE is the best outcome for getting cold conditions sooner rather than later, as the 12z JMA of yesterday showed us in spectacular fashion.

 

-  and thanks @lorenzo, it's good to know that I'm not spouting nonsense as I come to terms with the complexities of tropical forcing 

I see the northern-hemisphere-only eastward propagating convection signal in the Pacific remains in the output, this being what GP referred to a few days back with respect to another surge in AAM. Linked to the anticipated MT event over the Rockies I think?

[wishingforsnow]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Just incase you thought the Op was an outlier, take a look at the Ens at day 10....lots of interest here.

Few examples below.

Plenty of cold potential in there

[Lukesluckybunch]

Yes I agree,some of it brutally cold!

[nick sussex]

To get to any cold quicker this is where the outputs could be taking too much energy ne rather than se.

You'll see the ECM T168hrs:

The two lows and the temporary ridge between them and the ridge over Europe going north in response to the low digging into the Atlantic:

Then the ECM T192hrs:

The majority of the energy is heading ne.

I've picked this timeframe because this is where you can realistically factor in some common model bias. As we've seen from the last week the NWP can make a real mess of undercutting.

For this reason I'd be looking for around this timeframe as an area where changes in where the trough energy goes can have a big impact.

As we've seen over the last few days the upstream pattern had originally been modelled as flatter, then the outputs now agree on an amplifying shortwave which develops into that deep east USA coastal low.

Its this change upstream which is now offering a window of opportunity, this amplification is currently not expected to last with a more progressive flow likely in the central USA working eastwards.

I think the issue going forward is whether we'll see this prog flow also re-amplifying to a degree with a series of shortwaves running ene and phasing with the PV over ne Canada. This if it happens could afford another chance.

However I'd like to see that T168hrs timeframe built on rather than waiting for a couple of more days for another possible chance.

 

 

 

[Audaxian]

3 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

its basically way out of the predictable timeframe/unlikely to verify. hence fantasy island, definitely not Formula 1

Thanks everyone :). I wasn't far off figuring out what the background intent of the acronym was intended for then, which is good.

PS - as an F1 fan, I'd argue they often go off into the realm of FI. Take for example the originally proposed rules change for 2017 and how the current proposals have been massively watered down.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Audaxian

[Ali1977]

Ian Fs latest tweets show little in the way of cold, puts a dampner on some of those charts this morning. 

[SLEETY]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Ian Fs latest tweets show little in the way of cold, puts a dampner on some of those charts this morning. 

goes against his previous quotes showing glosea5 with positive heights over GH then

 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Ian Fs latest tweets show little in the way of cold, puts a dampner on some of those charts this morning.

The weather is fluid. Things change and evolve, we'll see how things progress over the next few days. Any time you have low pressure digging further south into the Atlantic then you can't completely rule out a high near Scandi.

The issue currently is probably how far west the pattern might get and that's often the problem in these types of set ups.

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes the current cold spell isn't up to much.  Good cold spells should not have marginality and fretting over dew points. 

Well, going back to the Golden Age, marginality has always been the norm: forecasts for 'rain, sleet or snow' have always far outnumbered prediction of 'snow, snow, snow'...hence 1947 and 1963 have always been the Holy Grails, as far as winter weather is concerned...

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts have been hidden as they are off topic and more relavent to the winter thread. Please continue with discussing what the Model Outputs are 'showing' please in here.

Many Thanks, PM.

[wishingforsnow]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Ian Fs latest tweets show little in the way of cold, puts a dampner on some of those charts this morning. 

Or currently, the charts being shown are not far enough into the reliable time frame in order to call it a definite outcome of colder weather returning as we enter February (though Ian F did also mention in his tweets that colder than average likely in Mid February going by extended signals so its not like he's said 'it's not happening again guys, nothing to suggest further cold at all')  

We and the experts have to see if this pattern continues to manifest itself into the reliable timeframe and grow into something significant, and if there is reason enough by then to suggest the major cold will return earlier than expected (late Jan/early Feb) then the pros and the Met/Beeb forecasts will surely pick up on this in approx. a week's time or less. A lot of water to flow under the bridge from now until then though.

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True but even with the Atlantic the UK should still manage some decent spells without the dreaded wintry mix forecasts! lol

 

Give it time, Nick - give it time!

Notwithstanding tonight's severe frost, the models are currently toying with ideas suggesting that some 'brutal' cold will soon (a week or so, perhaps) arrive form the North or Northeast. And, if that happens, marginality won't come into the equation?

[Catacol]

18 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Ian Fs latest tweets show little in the way of cold, puts a dampner on some of those charts this morning. 

Hmm - that's a bit misleading. Reading the tweets I'd totally disagree. The most recent refers to a resumption of a continental feed, and another speaks of longer term shift to below average conditions from the NW. He says no sign of real cold next week yet BUT acknowledges plenty of time for changes.

Let's make sure we post accurately.

[legritter]

Some very interesting posts today ,and some signs in the further outlook that we could get a better shot at cold .

i have personaly found the current colder spell very frustrating but of course very interesting .

If there is another shot out on the horizon which todays later ECM is showing and now GFS  and of course hints from other models does in fact turn up i,m thinking it will start to realy show up over coming days so realy looking forward to every run of the main models .

As just been pointed out on other posts good signs showing but we need consistency across the board ,glad my first ever chart i posted actually arrived on my post ,cant do it on my main computer but ok on my Tablet i had for Christmas ,catch ypou all up later cheers 

[SLEETY]

16 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hmm - that's a bit misleading. Reading the tweets I'd totally disagree. The most recent refers to a resumption of a continental feed, and another speaks of longer term shift to below average conditions from the NW. He says no sign of real cold next week yet BUT acknowledges plenty of time for changes.

Let's make sure we post accurately.

yes so many tweets to try to undertand,looking forward to next ecm its being showing an easterly at the end of its ouput almost,hope it continues that trend 

 

[winterof79]

42 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hmm - that's a bit misleading. Reading the tweets I'd totally disagree. The most recent refers to a resumption of a continental feed, and another speaks of longer term shift to below average conditions from the NW. He says no sign of real cold next week yet BUT acknowledges plenty of time for changes.

Let's make sure we post accurately.

The distinct possibility of Heights transferring north to put  a bit of a positivespin on the tweet

 

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather 37m37 minutes ago

@paul78310011 @James1uk yes, key issue after nxt few days is *poss* resumption of colder S/SE continental flow, so zonality not guaranteed

Edited January 18, 2016 by winterof79

[tight isobar]

Given what cross model outputs are currently hinting at in mid/longer term. ..I'd be more optimistic' than the current  soon to be previous cold spell.

Its no hidden secret that the height reaches being modeled plotting north/northeast. .is arguable for far better chance at firmer/deeper cold!!!! 

Keep your eyes on the cross model suites....and not the tweets. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

To be honest I would rather heights to rise to the Northwest than to the northeast, reason being an easterly might get flattened out.but if heights rise to Northwest over Greenland/Iceland lows wil just dive south under the high to create an easterly maybe...just my theory☺

[wishingforsnow]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

To be honest I would rather heights to rise to the Northwest than to the northeast, reason being an easterly might get flattened out.but if heights rise to Northwest over Greenland/Iceland lows wil just dive south under the high to create an easterly maybe...just my theory☺

At the moment it could go either way but the common growing signal is heights to the North. I agree though, I would slightly prefer a Northwest high to eventually materialise from this output too.

[tight isobar]

Ha.

Would be handy to see your locations @wishingforsnow @lukesluckybunch.perhaps given your location 'may' highlights your preferences? ! Also. 

[Barry12]

I was rather optimistic about this cold spell a few weeks ago, and for Northern England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of the Midlands, this cold spell has been pretty good. We've seen lying snow and we've struggled to get above freezing. It's certainly not a bad cold spell if you can achieve ice days in the UK.

The signals are their again in the models in the mid/longer term for another cold spell, with heights building to the East. My take on it looking at the models is that the Atlantic will break through by the end of this week/next week temporarily before we return to cold temperatures as we get a East/SE flow during the last week of January and into February.

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by Barry95

[IPredictASnowStorm]

cold fighting back