Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Audaxian said:

Apologies for a brief interruption...

I've been watching this thread, as I find it interesting seeing how the models evolve over time. I am, however, a complete newbie at model watching so I'm just silently soaking in. I've been able to pick up what most of the acronyms in common use mean, but there's one that's stubbornly refused to reveal itself. What does "FI" stand for? Been able to figure out that it's probably something to do with longer-range models and low confidence levels as a result, but beyond that I'm lost. Anyone want to put me out of my acronym misery? (I'll probably kick myself when it turns out it was completely obvious).

its basically way out of the predictable timeframe/unlikely to verify. hence fantasy island, definitely not Formula 1

Edited January 18, 2016 by karlos1983

[OldMetMan]

Audaxian, FI stands for "Fantasy Island". The further out the model predictions are, the more they go off into the realm of fantasy!

[mushymanrob]

hints of pressure rise across europe and into scandinavia? yep, but the mean upper flow doesnt suggest a strong scandi high delivering a cold easterly for the uk - yet at least. and cold to our east looks to be locked up whilst the uk is bathed under mild southwesterlies - for now.

[Derbyshire Snow]

Looking at the models i would still rather see substantial heights to develop over Greenland to deflect the jet stream further south or to send some energy out of North America to west of Greenland. This morning early model runs  still show a succession of depressions being forced over our European High ( which i believe can only sink south east eventually) and stopping any heights really developing over Scandinavia.  If we can get these heights and halt the flow of depressions there must be a good chance of a Siberian/Scandinavian developing better and extending west and linking to the heights over Greenland region. If that did occur what a February we would have. The flow of atlantic would then be deflected to the south, much better for us.

Something on the lines of  this image off last nights GFS run,almost cutting off North Atlantic attack

,

These are my take on synoptics to bring on substantial and long lasting cold.

Todays outputs should be interesting to see how models behave after this moderate effort of a cold snap we have had. 3 degrees this morning, no overnight frost here, and our 1 inch of snow all gone 

Edited January 18, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Ali1977]

WAA heading to Greenland at 166, definitely looking like it could be an interesting run. Also, the low near Madeira is cut off so not sure how this will work out.

[Yarmy]

41 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Fantasy Island...

Can anyone remember where the thread with the Glossary of NW jargon is? I think DiagonalRedLine created it. Useful for those who want to know their undercut from their elbow.

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs 6z vs ecm both 96hrs

ecm wants to eject lows from the south east on a more se direction gfs wants to try go northeast.

the differences are small but important to where any heights establish for those seeking cold.

notice at 120 gfs 6z lowering of heights around the azores or just north of the azores but the spoiler is at the moment higher heights to our south.

but look jet stream if the gfs and ecm are correct weak jet stream going nicely south east renewed heights building we have a block all we now need is something noticeable to run se into Europe I fear this wont happen for awhile yet.......

but the key is yes milder by the end of the week especially in the south southwest but nothing is going to remove this cold to our east including the block!

I think going forward after all the model outputs after last couple of days there seems to be a new pattern emerging.

fingers crossed we don't see a 2012 failed easterly rerun.

jet stream pretty weak and not really effecting us in the uk or eastern Europe this was key feature in winter 09/10 with the jet very far south if anything current jet profile goes south southeast under the block its looking pretty good if the models are correct.

its close to the only was lower pressure can go is under but that's just my opinion after us southerners disappointment of this current cold spell.

but we got to start somewhere if it was not for this currents spell of cold then we could be looking at continued chaos of December 2015.

so all is not lost.

 

 

[Derbyshire Snow]

I am liking this run at the moment... much better heights over  Greenland.  jet stream weakening ..low trying to push west of greenland 

.. interesting where this leads to on this run

 

Our European high being pushed away and allowing better heights up north

Edited January 18, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Ali1977]

This looks like it could be a real eye candy run, heights heading straight to Greenland - Northerly incoming and with a lot more vigour than the last one.

lets hope it doesn't get bowled over.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Ali1977

[Derbyshire Snow]

If this occurs  be special . Some adjustments still required but starting to fit in to place now for proper cold. WE still need the heights better over Greenland but a much improved position to work from.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[TEITS]

Regardless of how the 06Z continues to develop it goes to show how the models can make me look a fool. A few days ago I would never of thought the GFS would show the synoptics at +192 on the 06Z run.

I am thinking I should shut up and stop making predictions and comment on what the models ARE showing!

[MR EXTREMES]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This looks like it could be a real eye candy run, heights heading straight to Greenland - Northerly incoming and with a lot more vigour than the last one.

lets hope it doesn't get bowled over.

certainly is tasty chart.

but we want the Canadian vortex segment to retreat west or eject se and heights to our south to retreat just a little more south allow the scandi lobe of vortex I think that's vortex to drop down and push a little sw but its not far from northerly and northeast flow so nice chart.

[JeffC]

20 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Can anyone remember where the thread with the Glossary of NW jargon is? I think DiagonalRedLine created it. Useful for those who want to know their undercut from their elbow.

 

Gonna put that in my favourites

[Ali1977]

Nice dry and chilly weather at day 9, not quite going the right way to bring the goods to the UK. Might look a whole lot different by tonight.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Ali1977

[Derbyshire Snow]

Hi TEITS,

I am mainly a watcher but i thought i would involve myself a little. Your comments over the years are great to encourage the cold lovers, keep it going. Weather makes a fool of us all.

I do feel as though February this year is our time for severe weather 

 

PS these chart are a  great improvement

Edited January 18, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Singularity]

Great progress over the past 24 hours toward getting a new bout of significant WAA going way poleward. 

For example, ECM 00z det. of yesterday on the left compared with that of today on the right:

 

Essentially we have seen a more meridional jet pattern emerge first across the U.S. and then the Atlantic, which leads to both the vortex to our NE being more toward Canada and that area of low pressure in the Atlantic dropping down to the west of the UK rather than racing NE to merge with the low heights to our NW.

Longer term shows an even more dramatic change, as you'd expect:

 

A boxing glove is thrust into the face of the vortex on this morning's run, and GFS wants to take it further still, though fails to capture the likely response thereafter.

 

We actually have the models in a state of confusion regarding the tropical forcing - just look at the MJO plot below-left:

Very untidy, and reminiscent of what we saw mid-Dec '15, prior to the MJO setting off on that major orbit through phases 4 to 8.

I also recall GEFS attempting to take the MJO back to phase 2 then round to 3 again. Talk about de ja vu! The other models are thinking about emerging on the Pacific side but not really going for it.

A basic statistical outlook (middle image) seems more sensible on an intuitive level, but these models don't factor in dynamical events that tend to mute the signal to some extent.

Also shown on the right is the latest GEFS outlook for the GWO with respect to global AAM. Further reflections on the past here too, as GEFS mid-Dec was keen to head to phase 1 prior to what turned out to be another orbit through 5/6/7. Basically GEFS is displaying a serious habit of generating a false La-Nina type signal for some reason. A bias has been known of for a long time, and I suspect the unusually warm Indian Ocean is enhancing this trait.

 

The alterations within the next 5-7 days seem to be more a reflection of the amplification signal from the Pacific having been underestimated. I wonder if we are again seeing a lack of a single dominant area of convection/wind anomalies, due to the extensive nature of positive SST anomalies across the global tropics, which is confusing the models much as we saw for a time last month.

From this, I would infer that this is very much the case:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/irtempanim.gif

 

[MR EXTREMES]

2 hours ago, TEITS said:

Regardless of how the 06Z continues to develop it goes to show how the models can make me look a fool. A few days ago I would never of thought the GFS would show the synoptics at +192 on the 06Z run.

I am thinking I should shut up and stop making predictions and comment on what the models ARE showing!

I think you should post more often because the models are forever making me look stupid but hey that's why model watching is so addictive especially lately best charts popping up since 2013 09/10 so 1 easterly for 1 day with snow id be happy.

theres fair few models with same sort of ideas so theres every reason to be quietly confident although my sofa has bald patches well so do I after recent ups and downs.

but no need now for a pattern reset lets see if the current pattern will build into something a little special its happened before and will happen again at some point.

infact was it not feb 2013 that was a feb cold spell that continued into march.

my dad said the other day winter used to be from jan through march back in the day.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[nick sussex]

Close but no cigar in terms of the GFS 06hrs run upto T240hrs. The jets curving away from the UK so the cold heads se to the east.

We really need to see the more omega block set up with the jet curving back into the UK.

I'm not sure the GFS is on the right page here in terms of whats its trying to do, I just don't see any initial cold coming from the north, and even if it does the ridge would likely topple towards Scandi.

The upstream pattern is not expected to maintain sufficient amplitude to hold high pressure to the north. If you read comments from NCEP that deep low near the eastern USA which is crucial to any cold evolution is expected to verify, this is expected to be a brief re-amplification before a more progressive flow.

This would correlate more with ridging towards Scandi than any longer standing ridge over Greenland.

[Ali1977]

Well, one thing to take from the nights / mornings charts is Early Feb has lots of potential, best part of winter and model watching to come I hope...SSW still showing too, let's hope we get some severe cold early Feb that goes on for weeks due to effects of some SSW !! Perfect world of course!!

Edited January 18, 2016 by Ali1977

[coldcomfort]

2 hours ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

I think you should post more often because the models are forever making me look stupid but hey that's why model watching is so addictive especially lately best charts popping up since 2013 09/10 so 1 easterly for 1 day with snow id be happy.

theres fair few models with same sort of ideas so theres every reason to be quietly confident although my sofa has bald patches well so do I after recent ups and downs.

but no need now for a pattern reset lets see if the current pattern will build into something a little special its happened before and will happen again at some point.

infact was it not feb 2013 that was a feb cold spell that continued into march.

my dad said the other day winter used to be from jan through march back in the day.

Definately an interesting 06 GFS, perfectly highlights how just one or two minor tweaks are needed to give a very different look to things, but if ever there was a case of 'more runs needed' then this must be it! 

Edited January 18, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[lorenzo]

 

 

@Singularity nice discussion on MJO, from tropical genius Mike Ventrice a tweet a couple of days ago discusses the noise from KW. Forecast above indicates still some sign of MJO to initiate in IO toward month end.

Some composite work needed I think to look at trends from there. Regarding the 06z developments going to throw in a couple of the strat charts at 150hPa, to show the support for amplification mid range then the movement of the lower vortex segment out at D10, whilst not as robust as charts higher in the strat, again an area to watch for trends.

[wishingforsnow]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, one thing to take from the nights / mornings charts is Early Feb has lots of potential, best part of winter and model watching to come I hope...SSW still showing too, let's hope we get some severe cold early Feb that goes on for weeks due to effects of some SSW !! Perfect world of course!!

The vortex is looking battered and the models seem to be developing a Scandi/Greenland block towards the end of the month into February. For the sake of the bad luck the UK has had during the past 2 winters, I hope I'm right in thinking we are on the cusp of something bigger for cold for the first time in 3 years 

Also will be interesting to see Dr Cohen's blog re. SSW.

Edited January 18, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[carinthian]

Good Morning, still most models want to bring in mild SWly by the end of the week. Could be a long process to reach out to the East. By Thursday morning still cold air anchored close to the East . The forecast surface drift from the NE would likely produce light snowfall in some SE parts.

 C

[nick sussex]

I think if theres going to be a big change in the outputs its likely to occur around T168hrs.

This is the timeframe when that eastern USA low moves off the east coast of the USA and develops  a small ridge between it and the low to the west of the UK.

The question is if we can see enough sharpness develop to the low to the west of the UK to send more energy se'wards.

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, OldMetMan said:

I felt I had to comment on developments in model output this morning, even though they are tentative and a long way off yet.

There has already been some back-tracking on the forecast return of the Atlantic systems over several days, but what I have been watching with interest is the large HP off N Russia and towards the Pole. In spite of the models trying to kill it off, it's still there. In fact, the GEM is creating a new scenario this morning involving linking it to developing HP over W and NW Europe, with a significant easterly developing.

 

Actually, it bears some striking similarities to what happened in January 1947!

I can't help but think there is still too much ambivalence over the usual return to the SW flow from the models. I think we need to watch how the upper flow develops in the next few days as this could be crucial in deciding how the longer term will pan out. A big sturdy ridge extending NE, as portrayed by the GEM might seem too much to hope for but as I see things setting themselves up at present, I think it remains a distinct possibility.

 

 

I know exactly where you are coming from here OMM.

Just how on this Earth did the output ,which quite frankly would have had this forum stocking up on Prozac,go from this as flat as you like with a menacing PV

In incidentally this Jet profile is strangely close to the one at present

To this 2 days later

 Ridiculous how the heights moved north

GFS 06z

  Uncanny

The rest as they say is History

 

Or is it just History??? Or are the models toying in preparation?

GFS

ECM

GEM

 

There have always been comparisons of sort but this has an eerie feel to it.

I wasn't aware that missiles/torpedos were that powerful back then were you GP?